The Texas Senate elections will be one of the most-watched in this midterm season as both parties are gearing up to select their nominees on March 3.
Some Republicans have expressed concerns about recent polling showing Democrats with a strong chance of winning the Senate seat. The Democratic Party is expected to pour millions of dollars into the race, reasoning that a win in a red state would represent a significant victory that could build momentum for other candidates in Republican-dominated states.
The stakes are high for the GOP with leaders trying to protect their Senate majority while facing the possibility that a polarizing Republican nominee like Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton could lose the seat and make the Lone Star State more competitive than usual.
The latest poll before the primary election shows Rep. Jasmine Crockett (TX-30) as the clear favorite. She led state Rep. James Talarico 56 percent to 44 percent in a University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll.
On the Republican side, Paxton leads incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) 36 percent to 34 percent, according to the same poll. Rep. Wesley Hunt (TX-38) comes in third with 26 percent.
.@Polymarket - Texas Senate (chance of winning)
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) February 27, 2026
🟥 Republican: 60% (-22) ← new low
🟦 Democrat: 37% (+18)
(+/- change vs Nov. 3) https://t.co/Qt1x9Gx2ll pic.twitter.com/l3nU615bu7
But the numbers become even more interesting when considering potential matchups between possible Republican and Democratic nominees, Politico reported. Senate Republicans circulated internal general-election results showing Cornyn polling ahead of Talarico by three points and Crockett by seven. Paxton trailed Talarico by three points and led Crockett by one point.
Republicans’ plan is to avoid a drawn-out intraparty conflict between the establishment and more populist factions. They seek to rally behind a common message that involves framing the Democratic nominee as too leftist for Texas while keeping the Republican base energized.
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This is really simple. If Talarico is our candidate, we flip Texas and win the Senate. If not, we don't. https://t.co/DeUypXUWEl
— Topher Spiro (@TopherSpiro) February 26, 2026
Senate GOP leaders and other party officials appear to believe Sen. Cornyn is the safest choice for nominee and have cautioned donors that a Paxton nomination would force them into a more costly and uncertain race. But many in the Republican base view Cornyn as an establishment figure that is out of touch with the base.
Of course, the polling could change drastically after both parties pick their nominee. This race could be close. But it could be bigger than just Texas. Democrats have not won a Senate seat in the state since 1988. If they manage to eke out a win, it could suggest that the GOP’s hold on Texas could be wavering, which is why Democrats are going to put as much effort into this race as possible.
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