Florida’s 2026 governor’s race is already heating up, with many wondering who will try to fill Gov. Ron DeSantis’ shoes after his term ends in 2027.
Rep. Byron Donalds is currently dominating the GOP primary field, according to recent surveys. However, it is still too early to consider him a shoo-in for the nomination.
Meanwhile, Democrats have yet to rally behind a clear frontrunner in their primary race.
Donalds is currently leading the pack with 38 percent support, according to a poll conducted earlier this month. Lt. Gov. Jay Collins is in second place at nine percent, while entrepreneur James Fishback has garnered less than one percent.
“Byron Donalds’ candidacy went into the stratosphere after President Trump endorsed him in a Truth Social post, before the Naples Republican had even formally entered the contest…
— Byron War Room (@ByronWarRoom) December 27, 2025
Since then, he’s never looked back in the polls and, with more than $40 million raised to date, is…
On the Democratic side? It’s pretty much a graveyard. The leading contenders are David Jolly, a former Republican congressman who switched parties, and Jerry Demings, the Mayor of Orange County.
If you listen to members of the left-wing chattering class, you might think Democrats are successfully rebuilding their brand and that 2026 is their opportunity to flip the Sunshine State back into Democratic hands. Some have pointed to a single outlier poll showing Jolly polling only four points behind Donalds as their source of hope.
Here’s what I think is coming next. As Florida’s gubernatorial campaign gets into full swing, most of the focus will be on the Republican primary because Democrats will likely not have gotten themselves together any time soon.
We are about to have front row seats to a proxy war between the MAGA and “America First” factions. This race could be one of many battlegrounds on which these two sides vie for control of the GOP's direction.
Indeed, Fishback, who has garnered support from the Nick Fuentes-led groyper movement, has already employed some of their rhetoric against Donalds. In one post, he referred to Donalds, a black man, as a “slave” to his donors.
In another post, he argued that Donalds “represents a dark vision for America.”
Byron Donalds is a SLAVE who was auctioned off for $31 million.
— James Fishback (@j_fishback) December 26, 2025
He only wants to please his corporate masters.
I’m running for Governor to make Florida more affordable for working families, students, and seniors. pic.twitter.com/3hFIPVAnk8
The candidate has faced criticism for using racially coded language to attack Donalds. It is similar, albeit more veiled, to the type of language used by Fuentes’ followers.
At this point, it seems likely Donalds will win the nomination — unless DeSantis steps in. And I’m not talking about Ron, I’m talking about his wife, Casey, who is also beloved among Republican voters in Florida. She has avoided announcing a decision either way, but if she were to enter the race, Donalds might face a challenge.
Of course, if the governor were to endorse Collins, it could also present an obstacle for Donalds.
Either way, Democrats have about as much of a chance of winning the general election as I do. Still, the fireworks might be entertaining to watch.
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