Iran has reportedly been signaling that it wants to de-escalate its conflict with Israel amid airstrikes on its nuclear facilities.
The military hostilities between Israel and Iran have been going on for four days as Israel seeks to eliminate a possible Iranian nuclear threat. While President Donald Trump has been hesitant about supporting such action, he recently had a change of heart and has used the strikes to push Tehran to continue with negotiations regarding its nuclear program.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Iranian officials told Arab nations they are willing to negotiate as long as the United States does not join in on Israel’s attacks. The regime has also reached out to Israel’s government.
Still, Israel might not be as receptive to these overtures given its military advantage over Iran.
But with Israeli warplanes able to fly freely over the capital and Iranian counterattacks inflicting minimal damage, Israeli leaders have little incentive to halt their assault before doing more to destroy Iran’s nuclear sites and further weaken the theocratic government’s hold on power.
Israeli strikes have killed key military leaders, including much of the top echelon of Iran’s air force, leaving Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei increasingly isolated. But the impact on nuclear facilities has been modest and analysts say it could take a long air war to get the results Israel wants.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said the attacks will continue until Iran’s nuclear program and ballistic missiles are destroyed, and he has shown no indication he is ready to stop. He has also said regime change isn’t a goal but could be a result given the Iranian leadership’s weakness.
Israeli officials have said the military has prepared at least two weeks of strikes. On Saturday, French President Emmanuel Macron told his Iranian counterpart “to return swiftly to the negotiating table to reach an agreement,” and Arab leaders have called for an end to the fighting. President Trump resisted a military campaign for much of the year but has since cheered on Israel’s attacks.
The report also notes that Iran could be “betting that Israel can’t afford to get stuck in a war of attrition and would have to seek a diplomatic solution eventually.”
An Arab official told The Journal that “they are sure the U.S. is supporting Israel logistically,” but “they want guarantees the U.S. won’t join the attacks.”
Still, there are indications that Iran might not be willing to budge when it comes to ending its nuclear program, which it insists is only for energy purposes. Several experts told NBC News that it is possible the Tehran simply decides to accelerate its efforts to go nuclear.
The first wave of Israeli military strikes launched Thursday likely inflicted serious damage on Iran’s nuclear program, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that air raids will continue for “as many days as it takes” to ensure Iran does not develop a nuclear arsenal.
But Iran still has buried nuclear facilities at Fordow and elsewhere that it could potentially use if it chose to pull out of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and rescind its commitment not to pursue nuclear weapons. In that case, Iran would need to enrich uranium to weapon-grade levels, a short technical step with its current stockpile, and then build a nuclear warhead. That effort could take roughly a year or more, most experts estimate.
Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group stated that “the potential for backlash” is a “strategic risk” for Israel. He further stated that Israel’s offensive “could incentivize Tehran to reconstitute its program with renewed urgency, driven by a heightened resovle to achieve a credible nuclear deterrent.”
Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, predicted that Iran would rather push forward with developing nuclear weapons because it sees the initiative as a symbol of patriotism. “It has become a symbol of national prestige and honor,” he said, also noting that “the Iranians will probably make a decision to go all out in an effort to weaponize.”
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