Now that Texas Democrats have returned to Austin from gerrymandered blue states, where they fled to protest, well, gerrymandering, it appears as though Gov. Greg Abbott and the GOP-led legislature will soon adopt new Congressional maps. The shouting isn't over, but it doesn't look like Democrats have any tools left to prevent the proposal from going through. The changes would add five red-tinted districts, quite possibly boosting Republicans' seat total in the House of Representatives after the midterm elections next year. This is, without question, a partisan gerrymandering scheme being done for political reasons. In that sense, it matches the ruthlessness Democrats have attempted and/or achieved in states where they've had the power to do so for years. Nevertheless, if Texas completes this task, multiple Democratic governors are threatening to escalate the fight by redrawing their own lines to eliminate Republican-leaning districts.
California, which leads the nation in both unemployment and homelessness, is already far less representative than Texas, even with the state's "independent" commission. The GOP regularly wins approximately 40 percent of the statewide vote, yet Democrats control 83 percent of the Congressional seats. Gov. Gavin Newsom, whose supporters have followed his trolling lead by mocking the nearly-successful assassination attempt against President Trump in recent days, wants to change the state's constitution in order to end the nonpartisan commission and replace the current maps with an even more unfair version. Bizarrely, Democrats who dominate the legislature refuse to say who drafted the Newsom-approved scheme, even as top leaders in Sacramento are said to have had new Congressional districts drawn specifically for them:
A visibly irritated Gavin Newsom begins to stammer and sway from side to side when he can’t answer a simple question about Speaker Robert Rivas and Majority leader Mike McGuire drawing themselves congressional seats amongst Newsom‘s redistricting scheme pic.twitter.com/OwXX0DwGqm
— Kevin Dalton (@TheKevinDalton) August 22, 2025
It's very much unclear whether California voters will support dismantling the independent body and replace the line-drawing with an explicitly partisan process. They solidly voted to institute the current system, and polling has shown resistance to changing the rules. Republicans believe Democrats will try to word the ballot question in a way that confuses voters:
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Newsom just released a poll suggesting 57% of voters support his Redistricting Sham. But Politico's poll shows 64% against it. The difference is fraud.
— Rep. Kevin Kiley (@RepKiley) August 21, 2025
Newsom is testing ballot language designed to fool people into thinking Yes is No. pic.twitter.com/vPEM4i0dIP
Newsom may or may not win this skirmish, even among California's deep blue electorate. Former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is vowing to fight Newsom's power grab tooth and nail, and other Republicans are gearing up for an expensive fight to try to beat back this move. Meanwhile, New York's hapless governor is also issuing wildly hypocritical warnings on this front, and other blue state electeds -- especially those with ambitions -- are jumping on the bandwagon:
“I want to make sure we have fair lines and fair seats": Maryland governor Wes Moore (@GovWesMoore) told “Face the Nation’s” @margbrennan that “all options are on the table” regarding redistricting in Maryland, which currently has one Republican in its congressional delegation. pic.twitter.com/YCjljamtNl
— Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation) August 24, 2025
Maryland is already a poster child of ludicrous gerrymandering and is often cited as an example of Democrats shunting aside democratic representation in furtherance of partisan goals. For Maryland to go even further would be pretty remarkable, if they can pull it off logistically and legally. Democrats understand raw power. They crave it. They covet it. They exercise it. If they want a raw power fight on this front, Republican governors must be prepared to give them that fight. While the Democratic base may be demanding a brawl and "backbone," a wider political war over redistricting may not end terribly well for their party. They may want to up the ante and have a giant battle, but it could end up costing them, ultimately, which would be yet another example of Democrats' self-sabotaging in the name of "resistance." Are they really sure this is the path they want to go down?
In a re-redistricting war, Republicans would win pic.twitter.com/PG9vuh3Lzv
— Chris Cillizza (@ChrisCillizza) August 16, 2025
WSJ: Shawn Donahue, a political-science professor at the University at Buffalo, predicts Republicans would pick up 4 to 6 of House seats nationwide if a tit-for-tat redistricting fight were to break out.
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 24, 2025
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More than a dozen red states and three blue states meet the conditions to… pic.twitter.com/H68Ip4DF5I
More than a dozen red states and three blue states meet the conditions to potentially redistrict for 2026 without the need for a special election or amending the state Constitution. GOP-led Ohio is legally required to redraw its congressional districts this year. Missouri, Indiana and Florida have indicated interest in redistricting as well. The only states where Democrats have one-party control and the power to immediately pass a new map through the state legislature are Oregon, Illinois and Maryland. New York wants to redraw its map, but that wouldn’t happen until the 2028 election at the earliest...While both Texas and California are seeking to flip five seats, other states have fewer seats to target. Shawn Donahue, a political-science professor at the University at Buffalo, predicts Republicans would pick up four to six of House seats nationwide if a tit-for-tat redistricting fight were to break out.
Bear in mind that these changes could net Republicans more overall seats before the next census, which is expected to significantly benefit red states and further disadvantage blue states, due to population shifts. Remember, red states should already have more seats than they currently do, due to admitted errors by the Census Bureau in the 2020 count. That remains an highly relevant and important but under-discussed element of this entire controversy. Texas' maneuver here would partially make up for the census scandal, which robbed the GOP of Congressional seats and presidential electoral votes for a decade. This should be remedied before 2026 and 2028. But if Democrats won't agree to fixing the mistakes that benefited them, Texas and other red states can incompletely compensate for the shortfall through hard-nosed, Democrat-style redistricting. I'll leave you with a few more notes out of California, including about the man who is trying to suck up all the oxygen on the Democratic side of the aisle ahead of 2028. Just peruse these and consider whether he deserves a job promotion to expand his governance nationwide:
Newsom is taking credit for an improvement in homelessness he actively tried to prevent. I asked the Supreme Court to overturn a disastrous 9th Circuit decision so our communities can clear encampments. Newsom asked for the decision to remain. The Court took my side. https://t.co/XlUGhcIEwI
— Kevin Kiley (@KevinKileyCA) August 23, 2025
He’s so unbelievably bad at this https://t.co/kEs5fKrejM pic.twitter.com/rm6LhH5iHq
— Magills (@magills_) August 23, 2025
And then he tried to cover it up by having her change her age on MySpace.
— Bonchie (@bonchieredstate) August 21, 2025
Incredible.
I mean, the whole MySpace existing part, but also the dating a teenager and giving her alcohol part. https://t.co/oOyOvIaa43
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