The gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey are less than three months away, but they seem to be receiving fairly scant media attention -- perhaps because the conventional wisdom holds that the Democrats are likely to win both races. If that were to be the case, that outcome would be a hold for Team Blue in the Garden State, and a gain for them in the Old Dominion. In terms of historical trends, that may be a fairly safe bet, but is it necessarily a foregone conclusion? Hold your horses.
Let's start in New Jersey, where the seat is open. Incumbent Phil Murphy is termed out, and his party is hoping to retain the governor's mansion with this candidate:
REPORTER: “If you could pass one piece of legislation, what would it be?”
— New Jersey GOP (@NJGOP) June 18, 2025
MIKIE SHERRILL: “uhhhh”pic.twitter.com/VPLIkpyjIe
That was an excruciating exchange, ending in a completely vacant, nonsense answer that has nothing to do with passing legislation in New Jersey. Several months later, a piece in one of the largest newspapers in the state described Sherrill as largely running a "word salad campaign." Here's how she quasi-dodged a question about the Communist her party has nominated right across the river in New York City:
What’s really interesting to me is how @MikieSherrill can continue to support a guy who wants to defund the police, hike your taxes, and cozy up to antisemitism. Birds of a feather… pic.twitter.com/mPYwpVmMBq
— Jack Ciattarelli (@Jack4NJ) July 3, 2025
She supports the 'globalize the Intifada,' 'defund the police' Communist because he's on her team. She just hopes he will be "working to deliver efficient government." Jersey is a blue state, to be sure, but it's a lot less solidly blue than it used to be, not long ago. As we've explored previously, Donald Trump came within mid-single-digits of Kamala Harris there, showing notable strength in some diverse and blue collar communities. New Jersey's 2024 outcome was a lot closer than Florida's, Ohio's or Iowa's, all three of which have been considered swing states pretty recently. Trump's approval rating in the state has continued to look relatively solid, too. Murphy also had an uncomfortably close shave in his 2021 re-election bid. The RealClearPolitics average gave Murphy a lead of about eight percentage points heading into that contest, but he only squeaked out a three-point win. His opponent in that race was Jack Ciattarelli, who the GOP has nominated again this year. Right now, based on a survey this month from a pollster who knows New Jersey, Ciattarelli is behind by single digits. If he can dent Sherrill's favorables, he'd be within striking distance, especially given last cycle's polling miss:
NEW JERSEY POLL - Governor (will definitely/probably vote for)
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 4, 2025
🟦 Mikie Sherrill: 48%
🟥 Jack Ciattarelli: 42%
⬜ Not sure: 9%
——
Fav-unfav
Sherrill: 47-31 (+16)
Ciattarelli: 43-39 (+4)
StimSight Research (by former Monmouth pollster)https://t.co/x1sdbLPcVD pic.twitter.com/MW8aZfrohp
Other less recent polls give the Democrat a larger lead. Two advantages that Sherrill has going for her this year are (1) the Democratic Party's core based of support being more "high propensity," reliable voters than the GOP's, particularly without Trump on the ballot, and (2) Trump being in the White House. Four years ago, Murphy was given a real scare in part due to a backlash against Joe Biden's presidency (with rising inflation and the Afghanistan fiasco fresh on voters' minds). The opposite sort of backlash effect may boost the Democrats this year. On the other hand, Republicans are working hard to eat into the registration gap, and their candidate is running a smart, energetic race:
Jack is aiming to cut into the urban vote by just enough to make up that extra ground he needed in 2021. He said it was one of the lessons he learned after that election. It's smart strategy, and it could work.
— Micah Rasmussen (@MicahJRasmussen) August 17, 2025
Also, the guy is everywhere. https://t.co/i87pzaVWq1
In Virginia, a new poll shows Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears closing a large gap in that battle, pulling to within single digits of Democrat Rep. Abigail Spanberger. The Democrat remains the favorite to win, despite incumbent Gov. Glenn Youngkin's strong statewide approval (he is term-limited and can't run again this year). But the movement is toward a more competitive fight:
📊 VIRGINIA POLL By Roanoke College
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 19, 2025
GOV
🟦 Spanberger: 46%
🟥 Earle-Sears: 39%
—
AG
🟦 Jones: 41%
🟥 Miyares: 38%
—
Lt. Gov
🟦 Hashmi: 38%
🟥 Reid: 35%
——
Net Favs
• Youngkin: +8
• Spanberger: +6
• Earle-Sears: -7
• Trump: -16
8/11-15 | 602 LV |±4.4https://t.co/QuoWw9sPYo
New: Winsome Earle-Sears is closing the gap with Abigail Spanberger, according to a Roanoke College poll, which now has Spanberger leading by 7 points. The poll in May had Spanberger leading by 17 points. The latest poll was conducted Aug. 11-15.
— Nick Minock (@NickMinock) August 19, 2025
Spanberger has been evasive about debating her Republican opponent, including turning down CNN flat. This has stirred some speculation:
Spanberger refusing to debate Winsome on CNN tells me this race is actually close. Everybody knows CNN would do everything in their power to try to nuke Winsome. But it would be in prime time and people would actually watch. The local TV debates are great, but nobody watches… https://t.co/aW8TG6kOD0
— Glen Sturtevant (@GlenSturtevant) August 16, 2025
And although the campaigns have agreed to one October debate thus far, Spanberger's avoidance of the debate stage is noteworthy, in light of these comments made by...Abigail Spanberger:
ABIGAIL SPANBERGER YESTERDAY: “We have declined an offer to participate in a debate” with @winwithwinsome.
— Townhall.com (@townhallcom) August 15, 2025
ABIGAIL SPANBERGER LAST YEAR: “People don’t wanna debate anymore…Don’t vote for someone who won’t do a debate!” pic.twitter.com/l4McgHzTnQ
The Democratic nominee casts herself as a mainstream and moderate Democrat, but she can't even decide what to say about biological males in girl's and women's sports, offering mealy-mouthed nothings that have angered the left-wing base and should signal troubling elusiveness to normal voters:
🚨WATCH: Abigail Spanberger’s answer ⬇️ when I asked does Spanberger support biological males competing in women’s sports and males using female locker rooms and bathrooms at school and vice versa.
— Nick Minock (@NickMinock) August 6, 2025
Story: https://t.co/dPyaWnEv4j pic.twitter.com/2yDSILtco3
I'm quite sure she'd rather not talk about the outrageous scandals in Loudoun and Fairfax County schools, where left-wing extremism and yet more assaults on parents rights and common-sense normalcy could alienate key voters. Her avoidance of the issue is belied by her own record:
Think Spanberger’s a centrist? Think again. She’s all-in on boys in girls’ sports and men in women’s locker rooms.
— Winsome Earle-Sears (@winwithwinsome) August 12, 2025
🎥 Roll the tape: pic.twitter.com/AWLyK0SlVr
🚨 NEW AD: Abigail Spanberger can run from tough questions in friendly interviews—but she can’t run from her record. She supports men competing against little girls and changing next to them in the locker room.
— Winsome Earle-Sears (@winwithwinsome) August 14, 2025
Watch for yourself: pic.twitter.com/NX7Or2cBJ1
Education sanity was a major reason Youngkin won four years ago and has been a popular and successful governor. Spanberger's latest ad is focused on the cost of living and affordability, but as Republicans are pointing out, as a member of Congress, she rubber-stamped every one of Joe Biden's giant, reckless, inflation-ballooning spending schemes. Still, Virginia voters tend to swing away from the president's party in these off-year elections, and while it's certainly a purple state, Virginia remains blue-tinted. This race may be closing, and there may be turbulence ahead for Spanberger, but I still see a blue advantage in this one. For now. I'll leave you with...this flashback:
Did you know that big, bad, former CIA-covert-case officer & LE officer @SpanbergerForVA put her chem-bio weapon hood on during Jan 6th? Are you kidding? This is the CIA’s best? pic.twitter.com/xqMyzrUm85
— NOVA Campaigns (@NoVA_Campaigns) August 18, 2025
