On Wednesday, former Vice President and twice-failed presidential candidate Kamala Harris announced that she would not seek her party's nomination for Governor of California next year, ending speculation that she was eyeing a political comeback through that pursuit. Democratic politics in her home state is a one-party-rule machine. She'd previously climbed to the top of that ladder, reportedly striking a high-level bargain years ago to run for United States Senate, with Gavin Newsom moving in the gubernatorial direction. She subsequently ran for president, of course, after a very short stint in the Senate. Her campaign started with a bang, then rapidly fizzled as her poor performance as a candidate did not impress primary voters. Indeed, a one-time "top tier candidate," in her own estimation, she dropped out of contention before a single vote was cast, and before the calendar even flipped to the actual election year itself. Joe Biden later plucked her as his running mate, having explicitly promised to only pick a black woman to fill out the ticket.
Over the better part of four years, she became something of a punchline in DC, known for bungling tasks dropped into her portfolio, while serving up awkward chuckles and inane word salads during public appearances. She was one of the top validators of Biden's condition and fitness for office, amid his obvious and increasingly undeniable decline. When he face-planted in last June's debate against Donald Trump, the party panicked. Their aggressive lying and gaslighting about the incumbent's fitness for office had permanently disintegrated in front of tens of millions of live viewers. Following internal drama, Biden was forced out of the race within weeks, and some party elders kneecapped others' fantasies about a truncated mini-primary before the DNC in Chicago. Biden almost immediately endorsed Harris. The nomination was hers. She picked a terrible running mate and ran a bad, vapid campaign. She lost, decisively, though perhaps not quite as badly as Biden would have. Speculation has mounted about her future ever since, with governor rumors swirling for months. But she decided, perhaps with some encouragement, to take a pass:
My statement on the California governor's race and the fight ahead. pic.twitter.com/HYzK1BIlhD
— Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) July 30, 2025
One of the encouragers -- or discouragers, really -- was the man who helped jumpstart her career many years ago:
NEW: Willie Brown on Kamala Harris:
— Elex Michaelson (@Elex_Michaelson) July 23, 2025
"She may not want to run for Governor. I think it will be difficult for her to win that job."
The former San Francisco Mayor says in 2020 he told Harris not to run for VP...but ask Biden to name her as AG instead. After that, he says, they… pic.twitter.com/s0OoR43IbF
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The question now becomes whether her call to eschew embarking upon another political campaign, "for now," is a reference to her desire to give the presidency another shot in 2028:
KAMALA 2028? Former VP Harris rules out California governor run — fueling fresh speculation about a second White House bid | @guypbenson pic.twitter.com/PhCJqU3Cna
— FOX & Friends (@foxandfriends) July 31, 2025
If she were to run again, I strongly suspect her campaign would the same way her previous two bites at the apple did: With a loss. I don't think she'd have much staying power within her own party's nominating contest. She was soundly rejected by that electorate in 2019. She did not distinguish herself as Vice President. She was an awful, clumsily-programmed, utterly vacant candidate in 2024. It's true that she was thrust into that role at the 11th hour under less than ideal circumstances. But given her deficiencies, a last-minute and very short campaign was probably the best shot she'd ever had. If anything, she might have benefited from an even shorter campaign. In 2028, she'd be saddled with the Biden record, again, plus all the questions about the cover-up, in which she played a major role. The party will be eager to move on, I'd be. Relatedly, I'd also guess there is not a great deal of authentic, lasting Harris goodwill floating around, even though she's polling at or near the top of the pack at the moment. That phenomenon is likely a fleeting product of name recognition. Perhaps I'll be proven wrong, but I'd be willing to bet that Harris will either eventually read the room and also pass on 2028, or she'll jump in and fail. Her party ultimately does not want to be...burdened by what has been, to borrow one of her favorite vacuities. Unless they just fell out of a coconut tree, who would actively want more of this?
after her book announcement, Harris posted a TikTok from inside a bookstore, responding to people who say "everyone thinks you've been kicking back, drinking margaritas on the beach" https://t.co/lW8iEHRtX1
— Edward-Isaac Dovere (@IsaacDovere) July 31, 2025
Who might those voters favor instead? It's impossible to judge voters' mood this many years in advance, but as I suggested on Fox, there's someone I wouldn't dismiss at this stage:
Don’t scoff at AOC 2028 pic.twitter.com/3uxtHfXkhb
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) July 31, 2025
I'll leave you with the data points below, which underscore the precarious position in which the Democrats find themselves early in Donald Trump's second term:
Pew Research is showing some incredible partisan swings from 2023 to 2025.
— Christian Heiens 🏛 (@ChristianHeiens) July 30, 2025
18-29 Men: 🔴R+44
18-29 Women: 🔴R+14
30-49 Men: 🔴R+15
30-49 Women: 🔵D+3
50-64 Men: 🔴R+3
50-64 Women: 🔴R+1
65+ Men: 🔵D+6
65+ Women: 🔵D+2 pic.twitter.com/YI6T2lpFqx
We just had a week of ongoing left-wing meltdowns over Sydney Sweeney being in a jeans commercial, and you’re pondering this question? https://t.co/nSKXKDBRXG
— Bonchie (@bonchieredstate) July 30, 2025
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