In our Monday post about Republicans' chances of hanging onto their Congressional majorities in the 2026 midterms, we noted that redistricting could end up being a relevant factor. I'd argue that if it ends up being a decisive factor, that would likely be a good sign for the GOP, as it would indicate that next year's elections ended up being fought in political trench warfare, rather than a wave. Democrats are growing angry and anxious about potential plans in the red states of Texas and Ohio to engage in mid-decade redistricting, in order to pad Republicans' numbers in Congress. Some experts say that adjustments in those two states alone could add six-to-eight House seats into the GOP's column. There are risks in taking such action, of course, including diluting 'safe' red seats in an effort to gerrymander more reddish seats into existence, which could be susceptible to Democratic pick-offs, particularly in adverse wave years. The opposition is making counter-threats, too -- but as we also noted, their options for following through on their saber-rattling appear to be limited. Per the New York Times:
With Republicans in Texas planning to redraw more favorable congressional maps this summer, as the party vies to maintain control of Congress next year, national Democratic leaders are vowing to use every tool at their disposal to counter what they see as a nakedly partisan power grab. But the toolbox for Democrats is relatively sparse, aside from litigation or legislative protests. Though Democratic leaders have indicated a willingness to go tit for tat with Republicans, most of the largest blue states do not have a partisan redistricting process akin to the one in Texas, where the governor can simply call in the Legislature to redraw maps. California has an independent commission in charge of drawing maps, which voters applied to congressional districts in 2010. New York also has a commission (though it is subject to potential legislative changes), and New Jersey’s political commission is separate from the Legislature.
The story also points out that "states where Democrats would have complete control over any redistricting, such as Illinois and Maryland, are already gerrymandered heavily in their favor. Squeezing more Democratic seats out of those states would be a challenge." So in various deep blue states, they'd have to change the laws they've implemented, or even the constitution, in order to go tit-for-tat with partisan redistricting schemes. And in other deep blue states, they've already gerrymandered Republicans into oblivion, offering no realistic opportunity for conjuring additional Democratic seats. They've been maximally ruthless in places like Illinois and Maryland, for example, while managing to shut out the GOP entirely in other states. And even with a supposedly "independent" commission in California, Democrats' representation within their Congressional delegation far outpaces their average statewide vote share:
Recommended
You lie.
— Andrew Follett (@AndrewCFollett) July 15, 2025
California is already vastly more gerrymandered than Texas.
Trump got 38% of Californians' votes, while Republicans hold only 18% of the seats.
Kamala got 42% of Texans' votes, while Democrats hold 34% of the seats. pic.twitter.com/ZHqhgf2jdr
But there's a redistricting controversy that is (rather bizarrely) rarely talked about. I can understand why Democrats would prefer not to discuss it. I'm not sure why Republicans haven't raised it more often, and loudly:
the **actual** biggest political story that no one talks about in redistricting is that the Census Bureau messed up their count in 2020 in a way that gave like 5-10 extra seats to blue states, ADMITTED they messed it up, but we all just sorta have to wait 10 years to fix it https://t.co/Tlfiwn2Q7w pic.twitter.com/Rr0o0CHhjK
— Logan Dobson (@LoganDobson) July 28, 2025
Details, via NPR of all places:
For the 2020 census, all states were not counted equally well for population numbers used to allocate political representation and federal funding over the next decade, according to a U.S. Census Bureau report released Thursday. A follow-up survey the bureau conducted to measure the national tally's accuracy found significant net undercount rates in six states: Arkansas (5.04%), Florida (3.48%), Illinois (1.97%), Mississippi (4.11%), Tennessee (4.78%) and Texas (1.92%). It also uncovered significant net overcount rates in eight states — Delaware (5.45%), Hawaii (6.79%), Massachusetts (2.24%), Minnesota (3.84%), New York (3.44%), Ohio (1.49%), Rhode Island (5.05%) and Utah (2.59%)...These revelations come after the population totals from a census beset by the coronavirus pandemic and years of interference from former President Donald Trump's administration have already been used to divvy up seats in the House of Representatives, as well as votes in the Electoral College, for the next decade...Last year, the House clerk certified each state's new share of House seats based on the 2020 population tallies.
Setting aside the article's shot at Trump's "interference" (maybe he was right to question the Bureau's work), notice that ten of the 12 admitted "significant" over- and under-counts in states benefitted Democrats. Five of six of the undercounts are red states, and five of the six overcounts are blue states. Some people raised understandable concerns over these impactful errors prior to the 2024 election:
The changes will impact national politics in a dramatic fashion. The 2020 census led to significant changes to congressional seats apportioned to states. Texas gained two congressional seats, while North Carolina, Florida, Montana, Colorado and Oregon each gained one. New York, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois and California each lost one seat in Congress. There was significant surprise that population growth winners such as Texas and Florida didn’t gain more seats. With the possible exception of Illinois not losing a seat, the likely effects of an accurate count would have overwhelmingly aided red states. Simply put, the revised figures show that (mostly) red states had even quicker relative population growth compared to the rest of the country — and especially compared to (mostly) blue states.
It is entirely possible that undercounted states could have gained at least one seat in Congress, while overcounted states may have lost at least one each. The error resulted in over 600,000 overcounted residents in New York and a similar amount undercounted in Texas...Had the top overcounted states lost one seat each and undercounted ones gained one each, Democratic-voting states would have lost nine-net seats in Congress and the same in the Electoral College. The prospect of nine votes in the Democratic column, that would have been in GOP hands, would represent a flip of almost 7 percent of the 270 needed to win the White House. That’s more than just a rounding error.
Again, this wasn't some minor mistake. Trump ended up running the table in the swing states and winning the popular vote, so the point was moot last year. But what if the election had been razor thin? These Census errors could have decided and distorted the winner. And these errors will continue to have ramifications in 2026 and 2028. If inaccurate population data effectively robbed Republicans of 5-10 seats in 2020, 2022, and 2024, part of the GOP argument for aggressive mid-decade gerrymanders could be rectifying this outrageous and costly failure of a federal agency. And because these consequential population counts are tabulated (or in some cases mis-tabulated) based on total residents, not citizens, I'll leave you with the clip below. We shared it in our earlier post, too, but it may hit a little different, in light of what you've just read:
That’s quite the thing to admit https://t.co/hkuJruYgGM
— Bonchie (@bonchieredstate) July 23, 2025
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