If history is any guide, Democrats should enter next fall's midterm election cycle with a distinct advantage. Generally, the opposition party fares well in these contests -- sometimes very well. Looking back over the past two decades, for instance, four of the last five midterm cycles have resulted in waves (blue in 2006, 2018; red in 2010 and 2014). But in 2022, Democrats over-performed expectations and held the GOP to a 'red trickle,' which was still sufficient for Republicans to take back the House, but just barely. Given the tiny margins in both Congressional chambers right now, even a similar trickle next year would probably be enough to hand Democrats the gavel in at least the House of Representatives. This is especially true, in light of Democrats' recently-established and -demonstrated structural advantage in lower-turnout elections. Their base shows up, faithfully. Republicans have started to rely more heavily on lower-propensity voters to win, which presents a challenging proposition in non-'Super Bowl' presidential years.
That said, there are some extremely early indications that 2026 isn't shaping up like either 2006 or 2018. We've written about a few of them recently, including some heartening numbers in the chase for dollars:
Another good indicator that this is not 2017/2018.
— Matt Whitlock (@mattdizwhitlock) July 14, 2025
Republicans are out-raising Democrats and Democrats’ party approval and enthusiasm is still abysmal. https://t.co/SkCB9yIp6v
There's also this way-too-early (but perhaps still somewhat useful on trend-spotting) polling analysis that made the rounds a few weeks ago:
Reality check: Dems are way behind their 2006 & 2018 pace on the generic ballot at this point in the cycle.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) July 16, 2025
Ahead by only 2 pt vs. 7 pt in 2006/2018 cycles.
Seat-by-seat analysis actually reveals more GOP pickup opportunities than Dems! Very much unlike 2006 & 2018 at this pt. pic.twitter.com/CRgXukTjz6
NBC's data guru also sees some major distinctions between terrible bloodbath years for Republicans and what appears to be brewing in 2026:
NBC News National Political Correspondent Steve Kornacki joins Meet the Press NOW to explain how Republicans could hold on to control of the House in the 2026 midterm elections compared to their sweeping losses in 2018. https://t.co/xrLg2gpnbb pic.twitter.com/IAN7UCM2AL
— Meet the Press (@MeetThePress) July 23, 2025
"The makeup of that Republican majority that got decimated in 2018 [net 40 seats lost] is very different than the makeup of the Republican majority right now," Kornacki told viewers, explaining that many more House Republicans in that previous cycle represented districts carried by Hillary Clinton in 2016 (25 seats in 2018), compared to those who hold seats in Harris-won seats today (just three seats). "Republicans have fewer overall seats now, but there are more Republicans in truly safe 'Trump landslide' districts," he said of the 2026 map. He also noted that if the red states of Texas and Ohio go through a redistricting process to draw Democrats out of seats, that could blunt some of the built-in Democratic advantages in the upcoming midterms, potentially keeping them "in the game to hold onto their majority." Democrats are screaming about the unfairness of gerrymandering, but they are ruthless gerrymanderers themselves. Part of the reason the New York Times writes that Democrats have few options on the table to counter potential GOP redistricting plans is that they've already squeezed every ounce of their advantage in some of the bluest states they control:
But the toolbox for Democrats is relatively sparse, aside from litigation or legislative protests. Though Democratic leaders have indicated a willingness to go tit for tat with Republicans, most of the largest blue states do not have a partisan redistricting process akin to the one in Texas...States where Democrats would have complete control over any redistricting, such as Illinois and Maryland, are already gerrymandered heavily in their favor. Squeezing more Democratic seats out of those states would be a challenge...While Democrats have their share of aggressive gerrymanders, blue states have led in embracing reforms to insulate redistricting from politics, such as creating an independent or bipartisan commission to agree on new maps. Such actions — done in the name of good governance and often with significant support from voters — are now leaving Democrats in a bind.
Democrats have tied their own hands for their own political reasons in some places, while aggressively gerrymandering elsewhere. They like to pretend that Republicans are the scheming, power-hungry party, and just whistle past glaring examples like these:
Who exactly does this guy think he’s fooling here???
— Christian Heiens 🏛 (@ChristianHeiens) July 26, 2025
You’re not afraid the game is being rigged. You’re afraid it’s finally being rigged against your side. https://t.co/SsbNDUX2Oq pic.twitter.com/Z4pJkQ3oU1
New Mexico is 46 (R) / 51 (D) state.
— 1611 Populist (@KJVPopulist) July 23, 2025
This is what competitive authoritarianism looks like. https://t.co/aBEZhvm6Cj pic.twitter.com/L4wGZYVWe4
Republicans win 40% of the votes for US House in CA, yet hold only 17% of House seats in the state. Newsom wants an unconstitutional ultra gerrymander because Democrats’ massive overrepresentation in our House delegation is not enough for him, Mr. Democracy.
— Ron Nehring (@RonNehring) July 23, 2025
Republicans average 41% of the vote in California. Yet Newsom wants to re-draw congressional districts so we have 6% of the seats. His scheme involves tricking Californians to abolish the nonpartisan line-drawing commission. “America’s Most Corrupt Governor” is an understatement. https://t.co/L4D6um3Ync
— Kevin Kiley (@KevinKileyCA) July 19, 2025
As usual, Democrats love gerrymandering and unfair maps as long as those schemes benefit their party. When the tables are turned, it's "anti-democracy" and "authoritarianism." Funny how that works. If President Trump can help the party navigate primary season ahead of the 2026 general, thus avoiding bloody and ugly internecine nominating fights, that could also be rather helpful and a refreshing course correction. Politico reports that's exactly the plan. Of course, a massive factor in 2026 will be how the national mood looks around this time next year. That's unknowable. As of this moment, though, some of Trump's approval numbers, and overall economic sentiment is heading in the right direction for Republicans:
.@J_L_Partners - Trump Approval
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 23, 2025
Approve: 49 (+1)
Disapprove: 51% (-1)
Highest net approval since May@DailyMail | July 21-22 | 1,000 RV pic.twitter.com/niwn0M79RW
How would you rate the US Economy?
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 25, 2025
April
🟢 Excellent/Good: 36% (-27)
🟤 Not so good/Poor: 63%
JULY
🟢 Excellent/Good: 47% (-4)
🟤 Not so good/Poor: 51%
Net 23 point positive swing
——
Fabrizio (R)/Impact (D) for WSJ
New - Trump approval poll
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 25, 2025
🟤 Disasaprove 47%
🟢 Approve 46%
Emerson #B - RV - 7/22
'How would you rate the strength of the U.S. economy?' question from WSJ poll. Total positive number is rising. pic.twitter.com/OIzYxYmfM0
— Byron York (@ByronYork) July 26, 2025
But there will be many highly-anticipated reports and metrics like these over the next 15 months or so that will be a huge part of the electoral story:
This week: GDP, jobs, & inflation reports (which could influence Fed decision on rate cuts) -- deadlines for trade deals with Europe, Canada, & Mexico -- court hearing on Trump's tariff policy -- and US/China trade talks in Stockholm 🫨 https://t.co/wbSsMcjSIu
— Jacqui Heinrich (@JacquiHeinrich) July 27, 2025
One reality that has to be of concern for Democrats is the part's deep, historic unpopularity. Elections are a choice, and this is how voters currently feel about one of those choices:
BRUTAL WSJ poll: “The Democratic Party’s image has eroded to its lowest point in more than three decades”
— Jack Pandol (@jackpandol) July 26, 2025
33-63 Favorable/Unfavorable
GOP trust advantages:
Inflation: GOP +10
Tariffs: GOP +7
Illegal Immigration: GOP +24https://t.co/wa9khlkcCR
🧐
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) July 26, 2025
WSJ: Democrats Get Lowest Rating From Voters in 35 Years pic.twitter.com/Nhcxq5awbq
📊 WSJ POLL
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 27, 2025
Net Favorability
🔴 Republicans: -11
🔵 Democrats: -30 (lowest in 35 years)
——
Trust MORE to handle
🔴 Illegal immigration: R+24
🔴 Immigration: R+17
🔴 Inflation: R+10
🔴 Tariffs: R+7
🔴 Foreign policy: R+8
🔵 Vaccine policy: D+8
🔵 Healthcare: D+14 pic.twitter.com/LG7ZABTUPe
We've also seen a shift in the partisan identification of the broad electorate that took hold in 2024 continuing into 2025:
Pew Research - Party Affiliation
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 24, 2025
2021
🟦 Democrat: 52% (D+10)
🟥 Republican: 42%
2025
🟥 Republican: 46% (R+1)
🟦 Democrat: 45%
Net 11 point swing towards the GOP pic.twitter.com/ZNi8xxVjSy
Looking just at younger Americans, the fact that the GOP got to near-parity among age 18-29 year olds is really something. pic.twitter.com/dFMyyKJU2t
— Kristen Soltis Anderson (@KSoltisAnderson) July 23, 2025
I'm not sure whether this (or glitchy pre-taped virtual "speeches" from Kamala Harris, for that matter) will help fix matters among the young:
Flop sweat + actual sweat in a panda costume during the DC summer https://t.co/TVcCfiyqyK
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) July 27, 2025
And it doesn't seem as though they're terribly serious about accurately diagnosing what's gone wrong for their party:
The Democrats’ 2024 election autopsy will reportedly not examine the Biden fiasco or Harris’ quality as a candidate. Odd choice! pic.twitter.com/Bh3jyAjOw1
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) July 25, 2025
I'll leave you with this:
That’s quite the thing to admit https://t.co/hkuJruYgGM
— Bonchie (@bonchieredstate) July 23, 2025
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