Perhaps President Trump's most consequential decisions of his second term thus far involve approving and participating in major blows against Iran's theocratic, terrorism-fomenting, and virulently anti-American regime. When the Israelis pulled off stunningly successful attacks against regime leaders and infrastructure last month -- including operations launched from within Iranian territory, all pointing to vast intelligence capabilities and penetration -- America's president played a crucial role in those historic successes. Once the Israelis had done much of the heavy lifting, including obliterating Iran's air defenses and delivering virtually unchecked supremacy in the skies, the question turned to what Trump might do next. Would he effectively call off the dogs and insist upon renewed negotiations (Iran's leaders had foolishly ignored a previous deadline he'd imposed)? Or would he deploy unique American military technology and capacity to destroy a notorious Iranian nuclear site burrowed deep within a mountain?
Some figures in American politics preemptively argued strenuously, and even hysterically, against the latter option. They claimed such a bombing run would ignite 'World War III,' resulting in untold US casualties, and plunging the world's oil market into crisis. Trump ignored this fear-mongering and made the call to drop the bunker-busters, pulling off the operation with impressive precision and secrecy. None of the apocalyptic predictions were vindicated. Quite the opposite, in fact. The attack was a remarkable and historic success, the Pentagon said, sparking fury among some of the worst people in the country. But within hours of the bombs falling, some sources ran to various media outlets to claim -- based on a very initial and low-confidence assessment -- that all of America's and Israel's unprecedented actions inside Iran had only set back the regime's pursuit of nuclear weapons by a matter of "months." CNN leaned into this narrative, with others echoing the same claims, touching off a fiery debate over the efficacy of the strikes. Here's how the AP reported out this alleged 'failure' narrative:
A U.S. intelligence report suggests that Iran’s nuclear program has been set back only a few months after U.S. strikes and was not “completely and fully obliterated” as President Donald Trump has said, according to two people familiar with the early assessment. The report issued by the Defense Intelligence Agency on Monday contradicts statements from Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about the status of Iran’s nuclear facilities...The DIA’s assessment was preliminary and will be refined as new information becomes available, the agency wrote in a statement Wednesday. Its authors also characterized it as “low confidence,” an acknowledgement that the report’s conclusions could be mistaken. According to the DIA statement, analysts have not been able to review the sites themselves. The DIA also said it is working with the FBI to investigate the unauthorized leak of the assessment.
Someone, or someones, leaked these highly classified but low-confidence asssessments because they called into question the success of the operation. Media outlets eagerly and immediately ran with it. Setting aside denials from the White House, the Defense Department, well-informed and longtime senior officials, and the Israelis (as well as comments from the IAEA and even the regime itself), it just made no logical sense that combined and unmitigated Israeli-US barrages against Iran's nuclear infrastructure would result in relatively minimal damage that could be reversed in a matter of months. Pinpointed bombings, including some of the most powerful explosives known to mankind, had hit their marks perfectly. The entire top echelon of Iranian nuclear scientists had also been taken out. How could all of that possibly add up to just "months" of damage and setbacks. In short, it couldn't. This was from a late June update:
“Months” news cycle lasted days, if not hours https://t.co/zmPvFt2fsc
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) June 28, 2025
And now we have even more clarity, via New York Times reporting in recent days:
Quote: "The bombings deeply damaged Fordo — considered by the Iranians to be their best-protected and most advanced nuclear enrichment site — probably crippling Iran’s ability to make nuclear fuel for years to come."https://t.co/XaEqPuG056 via @nytimes
— Brit Hume (@brithume) July 18, 2025
Iran’s deeply buried nuclear enrichment plant at Fordo was badly damaged, and potentially destroyed, by the 12 massive bombs that U.S. Air Force B-2 bombers dropped on it last month, according to a new American intelligence assessment. Two other nuclear sites targeted in the U.S. attacks were not as badly damaged, but facilities at the sites that would be key to fabricating a nuclear weapon were destroyed and could take years to rebuild, U.S. officials said. A senior Israeli official said last week that the strikes most likely did not eliminate the stockpile of near-bomb-grade fuel that could be used to produce upward of 10 nuclear weapons. But without the facilities to manufacture a weapon, U.S. officials insist, the fuel would be of little use even if the Iranians can dig it out of the rubble. The new assessment helps create a clearer picture of what the combined Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran achieved. The bombings deeply damaged Fordo — considered by the Iranians to be their best-protected and most advanced nuclear enrichment site — probably crippling Iran’s ability to make nuclear fuel for years to come.
Catastrophic damage and destruction. Years, not months. Trump's success was a serious blow to Iran's regime, and a huge victory for global security. And the more various intelligence agencies assess the fallout, the better it looks. The Times story does include this line: "Multiple American officials said it would take at least two years of intensive work before the Fordo facility could be operational again. But other experts say that if Iran seeks to restart its program, it is likely to do so at other underground sites." If the regime survives and tries to reconstitute a nuclear program, that would constitute a potential future threat. But, again, given how thoroughly Israeli intelligence has compromised the regime, and given Israel's vigilance from above and on the ground, it's a sure bet that our allies will nip any nascent rebuilding efforts in the bud. They can "mow the grass" as necessary, as the regional term goes. In summary, Trump's major call was a dramatic success, and the critics and naysayers have been proven wrong, repeatedly.
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