UPDATE: Major Development in New Hampshire's 2026 Senate Race

Last time we checked in on this situation, in mid-March, popular former Governor Chris Sununu (R) was making noises about reconsidering his previous choice not to seek one of New Hampshire's US Senate seats. He'd passed on several races in the past, but strongly hinted that his mentality was shifting ahead of 2026. Incumbent Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) had announced that she won't seek re-election next year, potentially creating a plum open seat pick-up opportunity. Unlike prior demurrals, Sununu started singing a different tune, telling me the door to jumping into the contest was open, expressing strong confidence that he'd win the race, and downplaying any conflicts he'd had in the past with President Trump. Those strains, he said, are not 'of concern' moving forward (in fairness, the two had sparred in the not-too-distant past).

Sununu has, once again, been heavily lobbied by the GOP to take the plunge, and just this past weekend, Trump echoed Sununu's bullishness on his chances of prevailing:

"Chris Sununu is saying he'll win open Senate seat in New Hampshire, he has no doubt you'll support him if he runs. Is that true?"

TRUMP: "True...I support him fully. I hope he runs. He's been very nice to me over the last year or so. I hope he runs. I think he'll win the seat." pic.twitter.com/nzoRlYFJPB
— Howard Mortman (@HowardMortman) April 7, 2025

The leading Democrat who has announced his campaign for the seat started taking shots at both Sununu and Trump over this statement. The Democrats really didn't want Sununu on the Republican ticket. I suspect they share Sununu's assessment that he'd be hard to beat, which we explored a bit in this analysis. Fortunately for the Democrats, within days of Trump's pre-endorsement, Sununu has announced that he won't be running after all:

Huge news out of New Hampshire: Former Gov. Chris Sununu is not running for Senate and says he’s communicated this to NRSC Chair Tim Scott https://t.co/ZaXsmixhOB
— Max Cohen (@maxpcohen) April 8, 2025

I suspect this analysis is pretty fair:

Former Republican NH governor Chris Sununu declines a run for US Senate in 2026.

This clears up doubts about Democrats' ability to hold the seat next November. With Pappas declaring his candidacy, the race swings firmly into the 'Likely Democratic' category. https://t.co/2R29mg0TIV
— Michael Pruser (@MichaelPruser) April 8, 2025

By no means is this a lock for Democrats to hold the seat, depending on the political environment next year. But Sununu would have been a favorite or put it solidly in play. Now, regardless of whoever runs on the GOP side, the climb will be much steeper. While Democrats will be on the hunt to reduce the upper chamber Republican majority next fall, the GOP maintains attractive opportunities to pick up additional seats in places like Michigan (open) and Georgia (Ossoff). The latter fight would be an even juicier opportunity if the NRSC can land its prized recruit in popular Gov. Brian Kemp. I'll leave you with this piece as he weighs his options: