Donald Trump's second term has been underway for just over two months, and his administration has been battered with relentlessly negative coverage throughout much of the 'news' media. As we highlighted last week, however, the narrative that Trump has rapidly become very unpopular isn't really reflected in public opinion polling. He's lost altitude from his high-flying post-election honeymoon, but as CNN's Harry Enten explained, he's actually viewed more favorably now than at any point in his first term, and even when compared to the month in which he won the presidential election last year. CBS News published a new national survey earlier, and it reveals a few nuggets, including a stark reminder that we remain a deeply polarized -- and virtually evenly divided -- country. The public surveys the events of the last two-plus months and splits quite literally down the middle on whether or not they generally approve of what they've been seeing.
'We're a 50/50 country' is usually used as shorthand. In this case, it's not an exaggeration at all:
APPROVE/DISAPPROVE: His overall approval rating has ticked down just a point from last month and is a few points lower than at the start of his term, though it remains above what he got at any point during his first term. pic.twitter.com/l8dU3GtUGo
— Ed O'Keefe (@edokeefe) March 30, 2025
Right down the middle. Trump is popular among men (58 approve, 42 disapprove) and unpopular among women (exact same numbers, but in reverse). The president enjoys overwhelming support among Republicans (91/8), peels off 12 percent of Democrats, and is underwater among independents. The only age group in which he's upside-down on approval is senior citizens. On general issue sets, you can see the high and low points:
CBS Poll: President Trump Approval
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) March 30, 2025
Approve: 50% (-1)
Disapprove: 50% (+1)
—
Trump's approval on handling...
Immigration: 53-47
The Economy: 48-52
Inflation: 44-56
——
Crosstabs: Approve - Disapprove
• Dem: 12-88
• GOP: 91-8
• Indie: 42-57
---
• White: 57-43
• Black:… pic.twitter.com/AqcPc9JTsu
Trump is down double digits on inflation, which was one of the top reasons he beat the Democrats last fall. He's also underwater on the economy overall. These are red flags for the Republicans, especially if the impending round of tariffs raise prices further. The latest inflation numbers were a bit hotter than expected. A lot of these conditions were inherited from the Biden administration, of course, but as time passes, more Americans are going to assign responsibility to the team currently in charge:
The Federal Reserve’s key inflation measure rose more than expected in February while consumer spending also posted a smaller-than-projected increase, the Commerce Department reported Friday. The core personal consumption expenditures price indexshowed a 0.4% increase for the month, the biggest monthly gain since January 2024, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.8%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective numbers of 0.3% and and 2.7%. Core inflation excludes volatile food and energy prices and is generally considered a better indicator of long-term inflation trends. In the all-items measure, the price index rose 0.3% on the month and 2.5% from a year ago, both in line with forecasts. At the same time, the Bureau of Economic Analysis report showed that consumer spending accelerated 0.4% for the month, below the 0.5% forecast.
These are also potentially worrisome numbers:
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Americans are increasingly anxious about their financial prospects, with a closely watched gauge of consumer confidence slumping to a 12-year low amid growing concerns about tariffs and inflation. The Conference Board said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index fell 7.2 points in March to 92.9, the fourth straight monthly decline and its lowest level since January of 2021. The reading was short of analysts expectations for a reading of 94.5, according to a survey by FactSet. The consumer confidence index measures both Americans' assessment of current economic conditions and their outlook for the next six months. The business group found that the measure of Americans' short-term expectations for income, business and the job market fell 9.6 points to 65.2. That's the lowest reading in 12 years and well below the threshold of 80, which the Conference Board says can signal a potential recession in the near future.
It's the economy, stupid is almost always an accurate political aphorism. How these numbers look, and how people are feeling about their own financial situation, will be a or the decisive factor in the midterms next year. A much brighter spot for Trump is on immigration, where he enjoys majority approval. In fact, per the CBS poll, his policy of mass deportations is more popular than he is on the general issue set: Fully 58 percent support the deportations, with just 42 percent opposed. On DOGE, the respondents fracture evenly on the policy of reducing the federal workforce, (again 50/50), while most Americans do worry that the cuts will impact important programs and benefits. I'll leave you with a reminder of why large-scale deportations are viewed favorably by the public. Remember this guy? He's gone:
Update:
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) March 28, 2025
He has been deported 👋 https://t.co/OrDNB7jN8W
