I'm just getting around to this result from Tuesday night, but it's important enough to highlight. Democrats won a pair of significant special legislative elections in Pennsylvania this week. In one -- as was widely expected -- control of a deep blue seat was maintained by the party, giving Democrats a single-vote lower chamber majority in Harrisburg, 102-101. Per CBS News, "Democrats have held the Pennsylvania House majority since 2023, after they flipped 12 seats, the minimum needed to reclaim control after more than a decade. Since then, Democrats have maintained their majority by winning a series of special elections." Keystone State Republicans hold the majority in the Senate, but their margin just suffered a blow. The opposition has flipped what was considered to be a somewhat 'safe' GOP Senate, in a district Donald Trump carried by double digits in November:
Okay, I was premature in my early call but with all the votes in... I ended up being correct.
— Ryan James Girdusky (@RyanGirdusky) March 26, 2025
Republicans lost a State Senate seat in an Trump +16 district.
Parsons was a weak candidate and GOP voters don't participate in low turnout elections. pic.twitter.com/quCQlSNTHK
The last time Lancaster County elected a Democrat to the Pennsylvania Senate was in 1889, when John S. Hoover won a special election.
— Pennsylvania Maps (@PAMapper) March 26, 2025
136 years later, James Malone joins the club.
Democrats spent money on this race, plus their 'high propensity' voters always turn out. By contrast, many Republican-leaning voters either sat the race out because they didn't think it was important enough, or they didn't even know it was happening. As we've been saying, the GOP's emerging advantage with marginally-engaged voters is a double-edged sword; it helped a lot in the presidential race, but it hurts in almost all other election scenarios. Republican-aligned voter registration and turnout activist Scott Presler had been warning about how shaky this race was looking, but his pleas fell on too many deaf ears. Democrats organized and built an insurmountable early vote lead, with Election Day cutting the edge dramatically, but not quite enough to hold onto a seat in a Trump-dominated part of the state. Presler surveys the fallout:
To anyone who thinks Republicans should NOT vote early:
— ThePersistence (@ScottPresler) March 26, 2025
Democrats got 8,797 early votes.
Democrats won by 482 votes.
Imagine if Republicans embraced voting by mail.
(The numbers below reflect early voting.) pic.twitter.com/mfDTOv4LYc
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(1) Democrats went into the election w/ 8,797 early/mail-in votes, while Republicans began w/ 3,520 votes (70.4% - 28.2%). In a special election & in an off-year, the early votes — alone — lost us the election. If Republicans don’t continue to engage in early voting, we will continue losing. The fact remains that this is a red, Republican district & Republicans did NOT turn out on Election Day.
(2) There are 184,560 registered voters w/in PA Senate District 36. In this election, only 53,900 voters turned out.
(3) An Illinois-based PAC donated $100,000 to the demcorat.
(4) I warned everyone 5 days ago that we were losing the special election. I communicated w/ leadership to express my concern w/ this election.
(5) Door knocking & sending out pre-filled mail-in ballot request forms should be the priority — not phone banking.
(6) Now, b/c of the loss, both the DNC Chair & Governor Shapiro are celebrating. Republicans not taking this special election seriously gave the democrats a massive win & helps Shapiro going into 2026.
This is not an isolated event. As has been the case throughout the Trump era, Democrats have become a winning machine in off-year, special, and low-turnout elections. They have an organization and a voter base that take these elections seriously, driving participation, and manufacturing wins. Republican voters are less interested in following politics in general, and much less committed to participating outside of 'Super Bowl' level elections. White, educated, suburban voters (who by and large vote every single time) used to be reliable GOP leaners. They have switched to a core Democratic constituency, fueling Team Blue's solid advantage in these types of races. And as illustrated above, it's not just marginal seats they're winning. In Iowa, another "safe" state Senate seat was frittered away by Republicans in a special election earlier this year:
Iowa Democrats have flipped a state Senate seat vacated earlier this year by Chris Cournoyer, who resigned to become the state's new lieutenant governor. Democrat Mike Zimmer has defeated Republican Kate Whittington in the special election for Senate District 35. According to unofficial results from the Iowa Secretary of State's website, Zimmer won with 52% of the vote to Whittington's 48%...Although Republicans will maintain a firm hold on the chamber, now with a 34-16 majority, Democrats celebrated Tuesday evening. “Mike Zimmer’s victory in Senate District 35, which President Trump won in November with nearly 60% of the vote, is a clear rejection of the Republican agenda led by Kim Reynolds and the Senate Republicans that have failed Iowans," Senate Democratic Leader Janice Weiner said in a statement.
Trump carried this district by 21 points just a few months prior. This was a 25-point swing, entirely attributable to Democrats voting in disproportionate numbers while Republicans sat at home. In yet another special election earlier this month, Republicans narrowly held onto an Iowa House seat by four percentage points. Trump won there by 27 points. You get the picture. This dynamic will continue, and the losses in non-'major' elections will keep mounting, unless something changes. Let's see if center-right voters decide the Wisconsin Supreme Court race next week is worthy of their time and attention. Polling and the polarized nature of the Badger State electorate suggest that it's a very competitive race. But many prognosticators believe leftist Susan Crawford is the favorite to win because it's a non-'major' election -- with major implications, mind you -- for which Democrats faithfully show up, and Republicans do not.
Progressives are expecting another big celebration on April 1st in Wisconsin. Conservatives have the power to disrupt that outcome and flip ideological control of the court and a crucial moment. Will they seize it, including through embracing early voting? Or will the 'Trump backlash' narrative advance again, thanks to this chronic participation imbalance? I'll leave you with a reminder that Dems are playing hardball, focused on power:
House Democrat Leader says what we’ve warned for months: Susan Crawford has been bought by national Democrats who want Wisconsin Supreme Court to approve new Congressional maps that get rid of 2 House Republicans. This is their plan to stop President Trump. pic.twitter.com/fbkBPpKZtj
— Scott Walker (@ScottWalker) March 25, 2025
Editor's Note: President Trump is leading America into the "Golden Age" as Democrats try desperately to stop it.
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