President Trump remains right-side-up in many public opinion polls, despite the media's overwhelmingly negative blitz against his administration. Even as the efforts of DOGE are demonized on a daily basis, that overall mission also retains substantial public support, with Trump's immigration crackdown being even more popular. On the subject of tariffs, surveys show a relatively healthy appetite for taking a hard line against China, a top geopolitical adversary, but tariffs against allied and neighboring countries are viewed far less favorably. The instability of Trump imposing tariffs, then pausing them or dramatically scaling them back, only to set new deadlines for yet more volatility, has spooked and disrupted markets. Americans are still feeling jittery about the economy, and any noticeable increase in prices will come as a very unwelcome development after four years of Joe Biden and inflation.
Trump did promise tariffs as a candidate, but what many voters had in mind was 'Make the Economy 2019 Again.' Congressional Republicans cannot afford to fail when it comes to extending or making permanent the 2017 Trump tax cuts, which fueled a roaring economy -- despite hysterical misinformation and propaganda from the Democrats. If that task is not achieved by the end of the year, whether as part of one or more 'reconciliation' packages, a multi-trillion-dollar tax hike will blast American families and businesses, up and down the income scale. That uncertainty, in addition to the tariffs turbulence, are fraying nerves. And while I think I understand where he's coming from with this comment, I'm not sure it's wise for Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent -- who has generally provided a calming and reassuring presence -- to downplay the importance of inexpensive goods to consumers. I'd also totally stay away from the word "transitory," given its recent political history, in the context of downplaying and dismissing pain being experienced by Americans.
Trump's tariffs against Canada, as well as his crass '51st State' trolling, may generate some chuckles and winks at Mar-A-Lago, but it has lit a fire under Canadians. Not only is it already directly leading to higher prices on certain goods in America and encouraging a boycott of US goods up north (our top trading partner), it has thrown a dramatic political lifeline to Justin Trudeau's failing Liberal party. Canadian voters were on pace to hand Conservatives a win of historic proportions, led by a very talented and sensible Prime Minister in waiting. We've written about him several times, back when his victory appeared to be virtually a lock. Now that outcome is in real doubt, as voters have rallied to Trudeau and his party -- which they see as fighting Trump and standing up for Canada, while they paint the Conservatives as too cozy with Trump. The tightening of the polls has been dramatic.
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Trump reportedly loathes Trudeau, which put him on the same page with most Canadians...until Trump started talking about annexing their country and imposing tariffs (yes, Canada has placed heavy tariffs on some of our goods for years, but this is about a jolting change to the status quo). The 'stop cross-border fentanyl' explanation doesn't seem to make much sense, even as Canadian officials have scrambled to demonstrate that they're taking action on that front. Many people in Canada have come to see that as an excuse for what they see as a weird and pointless vendetta against a neighbor and ally. If Trump wants to humiliate Trudeau, he's actually done the opposite, sending the outgoing Prime Minister's favorability sharply upward, and reviving the leftist government's flagging chances of avoiding a devastating election rebuke. And for what? Rich Lowry felt compelled to write a piece reminding the president and some of his supporters that Canada is not, in fact, the enemy:
President Trump has made more threatening sounds about Canada than about Russia. He is wielding a weapon — sweeping 25 percent tariffs — that would almost certainly drive our Friendly Neighbor to the North into a recession, while he is making its leaders and people honestly fearful of the United States...The madman theory has much to recommend it . . . when dealing with Hamas or the Houthis. No one heretofore has thought it has similar benefits when handling relations with Ottawa...About three-quarters of Canadian exports go to the United States, accounting for 20 percent of Canadian GDP. The Fraser Institute, a Canadian free-market think tank, noted that when the 25 percent tariffs seemed imminent, the Canadian economy was about to “absorb the biggest external shock in a century (apart from during the initial phases of the COVID pandemic). One estimate has the effect of the U.S. tariffs, coupled with Canadian retaliation, reducing “the level of Canadian real GDP by at least 3 percent over 2025-26.” This, the Fraser analysis continues, would represent “a permanent output loss," meaning it is national income we will never recoup.
...Canada’s sin is to be party to a free-trade agreement — the USCMA — that it negotiated in good faith with the same U.S. president that is now browbeating it. It’s clearly a case of “you f***ed up, you trusted us,” although it’s not as though Canada has anywhere else to go...That doesn’t mean that there aren’t legitimate complaints about Canada. But the fentanyl trade and illegal border crossings aren’t among them (whatever its other issues, Canada is not Mexico). It is true that Canada uses protectionist measures to protect politically sensitive sectors of its economy, most notably dairy and lumber...All of this could be addressed in an orderly fashion when the USMCA is scheduled to come up for review next year. Instead, we have an on-again-off-again threat to tank the Canadian economy based on ever-shifting rationales...There are things we should want Canada to do, most importantly, to spend more on defense. Yet a Prime Minister Poilievre (should he get there) and President Trump should be looking to deepen what is already an incredibly close defense relationship — with a particular focus on securing our interests in the Arctic — rather than foundering on gratuitous enmity.
The USMCA was Trump's deal, negotiated and signed when he was last president. Read the whole essay; Lowry's argument is more comprehensive and thorough than the excerpt. I'll leave you with another thought on this front from Ben Shapiro.
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