Analysis: Is Trump's Approval Rating Losing Altitude?

There are competing narratives about President Trump's popularity. From the Left, including throughout much of the press, you'll hear that his support has cratered, and a backlash has swamped his fleeting 'honeymoon.' On the Right, you'll hear that Trump is, if anything, more popular than ever before, boasting robust approval ratings and enjoying broad support for his agenda. Which is correct? There's a bit of truth in both narratives. On one hand, Trump's average approval rating has descended a bit in the month-plus he's been in office, according to the RealClearPolitics aggregation. An initial approximate eight-point spread, featuring majority approval, has drifted closer to parity. As of Monday evening, Trump's job approval. had fallen to just over 49 percent, still right-side-up by roughly two percentage points. By contrast, Trump was underwater throughout virtually the entirety of his first term. That has not been the case in round two.

Three consecutive national polls in mid-February showed Trump upside-down, but the next four showed him above water by margins of two to nine points. As Rebecca highlighted yesterday, the best of the batch for Trump is the Harvard-Harris poll released Monday, about which Trump was asked during his point press conference with the leader of France. Democratic pollster Mark Penn previewed the survey before its publication:

Voters are mostly liking what they see in the first month of the new presidency. By 57/43 voters say Trump doing a better job than Biden, in advance look at poll coming out Monday. Job approval at 52 but closing the border, cutting waste are hugely popular. So is resetting merit as the prime hiring and contracting principle. They don’t agree with everything being done (ie Gulf of America), but overall, people feel much better about the direction of the country and the economy. Democrats are cratering, down to 36% approval. Schumer’s ratings are a lot lower than Elon Musk. Voters are looking back on Biden presidency and the Dem Party years and scratching their heads on how they tolerated it.

Sure enough, this poll shows Trump enjoying majority support, with a number of his key initiatives -- including those that would be termed "controversial" by the media -- even more popular than he is personally:

NEW Harvard-Harris Poll:

🟢 Trump approval: 52% (+9)
🔴 Trump disapproval: 43%

58% say he is doing better than Biden
81% support deporting criminal aliens
76% support eliminating fraud, waste
76% support closing the U.S. border
70% support merit-based hiring
61% support…
— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) February 24, 2025

On the other hand, there is certainly some softening in other polls, with the economy remaining voters' top concern. A number of surveys have suggested that people don't believe Trump's administration is focused enough on bringing down prices. These are red flags the White House must be aware of, even if most voters are willing to cut the new team some slack for awhile:

"Ruh roh", to quote Scooby Doo, on how Americans view the economy.

-Just 20% view it as excellent or good. Worse than at any pt during Trump's 1st term.

-"Yikes": 59% say the economy is getting worse... Worse than at any pre-covid pt during Trump's 1st term.

Danger territory. pic.twitter.com/MF38TDpAm8
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) February 24, 2025

As for the question of what to do to alleviate high prices and enact a successful agenda, I'll leave you with my one-on-one sit-down with House Speaker Mike Johnson, organized by Americans for Prosperity (on whose advisory council I sit):

My full sit-down with @SpeakerJohnson, hosted by @AFPhq. He made some news on the reconciliation process, with a major test coming this week... https://t.co/wRZRNP75BR
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) February 25, 2025