With the new Republican-led Congress in place -- and with President-elect Trump's 2024 victory formally certified -- the election season is officially over. Governance and results will be the order of the day, especially in 2025. Over the weekend, there was a fair amount of chatter about Trump pushing for 'one big, beautiful bill' to push through major elements of his agenda. This would be legislation passed using the budgetary tool known as 'reconciliation,' which is immune from a Senate filibuster, so long as its provisions are germane to the budget and meet certain requirements. (The Senate filibuster, I should add, will once again become a favored tool of the Democrats, who cynically denounce it as an anti-democratic and racist relic when they're in the majority. Their position on the filibuster is literally whatever stance favors their fleeting partisan interests at any given moment). Because of a quirk in the system, helpfully explained here, Congressional Republicans will have the opportunity to take two bites at the 'reconciliation' apple this calendar year, if they so choose. One could be used to enact germane immigration-related policy, for instance, while the other could be used to renew the 2017 Trump tax cuts and reforms, which are set to expire soon.
Trump seemed to come down on the side of jamming as many of the big ticket items into one package as possible, and pass it. But some GOP leaders on the Hill have been arguing that a two-bill approach could make more sense and be more effective. Is Trump fully wedded to the one-and-done plan? It seems not. On Hugh Hewitt's radio show Monday morning, he signaled an openness to either option:
Trump this morning tells @hughhewitt he's okay w/ THUNE's 2-bill play as well. (Like I wrote this morning, he doesn't really care & just wants wins, and has resisted weighing in.)
— Rachael Bade (@rachaelmbade) January 6, 2025
"I would prefer 1, but... I'm open to either way, as long as we get something passed as quickly as…
I would prefer one, but...I'm open to either way, as long as we get something passed as quickly as possible...We have a lot of respect for Senator Thune...he may have a little bit of a different view of it. I heard other senators yesterday, including Lindsey, talking about it. They prefer it the other way. So I'm open."
I think this diagnosis of Trump's attitude is correct, and that Trump's view of the situation is also the strategically smart one for him to hold:
One of those areas where Trump's instincts are better than the pols. Who cares, just determine what you can agree on and pass that as quickly as possible. If that includes tax all the better, but not an axle to wrap yourself around. https://t.co/ROuTH5UDee
— Liam Donovan (@LPDonovan) January 6, 2025
Process matters on multiple levels, but from Trump's perspective, what matters most is outcomes. If one angle can achieve better results than another, who really cares? Not getting wedded to one plan, or overly bogged down in procedural details, is the correct management stance for the president-elect. I also think this warning from Thune is prudent. It's an in-the-weeds concern, but reconciliation packages are only permissible if they adhere to the rules, including a mandate that the contents of the package are deemed 'germane' or relevant to the budget. Those judgments are made by the nonpartisan parliamentarian. There has been some speculation about Republicans contemplating using brute political force to effectively overrule any adverse decisions by the parliamentarian on this front, which would be short-sighted and institution-damaging, in my view. The new Senate Majority Leader seems to agree, and is ruling out that nuclear-style option. Republicans should not, and evidently will not, open this Pandora's box, which would inevitably be abused by the other side:
New — Thune plants a key marker on reconciliation, telling me Republicans should NOT try to overrule the parliamentarian if certain border/tax/energy provisions are ruled invalid. He says this is akin to nuking filibuster. “People need to understand that” https://t.co/Uw6DA5Gzso
— Andrew Desiderio (@AndrewDesiderio) January 6, 2025
The budget reconciliation process allows the majority party to circumvent the 60-vote threshold and pass legislation with a simple majority, but only if the bill alters spending or revenue levels. That means policy changes can’t be included. And it’s up to the parliamentarian to determine whether each provision complies with basic reconciliation rules. This is the famous “Byrd Rule,” named after the late Sen. Robert Byrd (D-W.Va.). Portions that the parliamentarian rules invalid are dropped from the legislation unless lawmakers motion to overrule the parliamentarian. This would require a simple majority. However, as Thune suggested, this is essentially a backdoor elimination of the filibuster because it would allow Republicans to pass legislation that typically requires 60 votes with just 51. Key limitations: Addressing border security through the reconciliation process would mean Republicans can only enact reforms that involve funding or have a “non-incidental” budgetary impact — such as allocating additional resources to seal the U.S.-Mexico border. In other words, immigration policy changes that aren’t tied to funding would almost certainly be a no-go.
Republicans will need to be careful and smart about how they craft these bills, to try to keep as many of their goals within the strictures of the reconciliation rules. Thune is wise to reject major norms-busting power plays in advance, as tempting as they may be in the moment. Here's another comment Trump made in the Hewitt interview, discussing one of the many 'day one' reversals of various destructive Biden decrees he intends to undertake:
PRESIDENT-ELECT TRUMP: "I see it just came over that Biden has banned all oil and gas drilling across 625 million acres of U.S. coastal territory. It's ridiculous. I'll unban it immediately."
— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) January 6, 2025
Drill baby, drill! pic.twitter.com/yJ95jmPRYs
Trump should simply undo as many of these moves as he can, unilaterally, and Congress should aggressively exploit the Congressional Review Act on others, too. I'll leave you with how the cranky, bitter, diminished current president is making his way to the exits:
Biden, who said last week that Trump needs to learn “decency”, snaps at reporters at the White House:
— Ryan Saavedra (@RealSaavedra) January 5, 2025
“I might be the oldest president, but I know more world leaders than any one of you have ever met in your whole goddamn life!” pic.twitter.com/qdsdlwUlZM
A sad spectacle.
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