New Poll of Florida Hispanics: Another Warning Sign for Democrats

We'll get to the brand new Florida numbers below, but first, some context: On Monday, we wrote about the new NBC/Telemundo national poll of Hispanic voters, which showed Donald Trump drastically closing Democrats' gap among Latinos. In 2012, Barack Obama won Hispanics by 44 points. Four years later, Hillary Clinton carried the demographic by 38 points. By 2020, the margin fell to 33 points -- an 11-point erosion from 2012, but still a dramatic lead. According to the fresh survey data, Kamala Harris currently leads Donald Trump by just 14 points among Hispanic voters, a 30-point drop from Obama's re-election romp. This much closer margin is now in the ballpark of President George W. Bush's strong performance with Latinos (44 percent support) that boosted him to a fairly decisive re-election victory in 2004. Per the NBC/Telemundo data, Trump has pulled into an exact tie with Harris among Hispanic men under the age of 50.

He has also improved notably over Biden's 2020 showing with the other demographic polled -- particularly the youngest (18-34 years old) Latino voters:

What's behind this Latino-voter erosion for Democrats? Men and younger Latinos pic.twitter.com/AhsLLHU6wD
— Mark Murray (@mmurraypolitics) September 29, 2024

Meanwhile, we've seen a number of public polls indicating that Florida may be looking uncomfortably close for Republicans. RealClearPolitics has even moved the state's Senate race into the 'tossup' category. Given the GOP's extraordinary registration shift, and the red tsunami that swept across the Sunshine State in 2022 (a departure from many other states), I am skeptical that Florida is competitive this year. I'll note that in 2020, the RCP average actually gave Joe Biden a Florida lead of about one point heading into Election Day. Trump won the state by more than three points. I've also been wondering how Florida could be very tight if Hispanics are really swinging rightward, to the extent that polling like the data set above are indicating. Generally, Florida's Latino population is to the right of the Latinos nationally, thanks in part to a large and conservative Cuban-American population. Wouldn't that suggest that Florida is relatively safely red? Another new poll, this time from Telemundo and Mason-Dixon, may help answer that question. It focuses solely on Florida Hispanics:

With just over a month to go before the November general election, a new poll shows Florida's Hispanic voters back Donald Trump over Kamala Harris by a 7-point lead. The Telemundo poll released Tuesday shows the Republican Trump leading Harris by 48% to 41% statewide among Hispanic voters, with 7% undecided and 4% preferring "other." The poll shows 61% of Cuban-Americans favor Trump over Harris, who earned just 28% of their support. Voters with Puerto Rican roots support Harris over Trump by 58% to 33%. Other Hispanic voters back Trump over Harris 47% to 41%...When asked which candidate they trust more to handle the economy, Trump leads Harris 51% to 41% statewide. Asked which candidate they trust more to handle issues related to abortion, Harris and Trump were tied at 47% to 47%. As far as who's more trusted to handle immigration, Trump leads over Harris 55% to 38% statewide...When it comes to Florida's U.S. Senate race involving incumbent Rick Scott and Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, Scott leads among Hispanic voters 48% to 37%, with 13% undecided, the poll found.

Trump up seven, Rick Scott up 11, Trump leading by double digits on the economy and immigration, with a tie on abortion. That's among Florida Hispanics. As an important point of reference, exit polling shows Joe Biden beat Donald Trump by roughly seven points among Florida Hispanics four years ago. Biden still lost the state by three-plus points. If this survey is even remotely close to accurate (I'll note that Ron DeSantis carried Latinos by double digits statewide in his 2022 re-election romp), there's no plausible scenario for Democrats to seriously compete in Florida this year. Trump beat Biden by 25 points among white voters last time. If Kamala Harris somehow over-performs Biden in November, Trump will still win Florida's white voters by a sizable margin. If he carries whites by a lot, and Hispanics narrowly, there is no math to get Democrats within striking distance, especially if Harris under-performs Biden with black voters, as some polls suggest she could.

For what it's worth, I spoke to a few contacts on Rick Scott's Senatorial campaign -- and Sen. Scott joined my radio show on Monday. I'm told their internal polling (which has been extremely accurate throughout Scott's multiple, very close statewide races over the years) looks pretty healthy at this point. They emphasize that they're taking nothing for granted, and they're putting in all the hard work, but I did not get the sense that they're worried the race has entered the 'tossup' zone. Since we're on the topic of Florida, and we mentioned Gov. DeSantis earlier, I'll leave you with the extraordinary work his administration is doing to recover from Hurricane Helene, while also deploying targeted resources to assist in devastated North Carolina. Competent, responsive governance matters: