High Stakes: Here's How the Polling Looks on the Eve of the First Debate

Tomorrow evening, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump will meet in the first of two 2024 debates. This forum is exceptionally early -- weeks before either major party's nominating convention -- and the stakes are high. I offered some thoughts on the matter yesterday. The clash will take place in Atlanta, Georgia, and is hosted by CNN. It will last 90 minutes, include commercial breaks, and feature moderators Jake Tapper and Dana Bash, each of whom have been targeted with charges of bias from Trump supporters in the days leading up to the event. NPR described some of the unusual rules that have been agreed to by both campaigns: "Microphones will be muted unless a candidate is directed to speak. Candidates are not allowed to bring prewritten notes or props. They will receive a pen and paper, as well as a bottle of water. A coin toss determined podium positions and the order of closing statements. According to CNN, Biden’s campaign won the coin toss and chose the podium to the viewers' right. As a result, the Trump team chose to deliver the final closing statement of the evening."

November's election is a rematch of the 2020 contest, with impressions of each candidate largely baked in. National polls show the race extremely tight, with Trump leading by a single point in the head-to-head, as of Tuesday evening. In a five-way race, Trump's lead bumps out to just over two points. Several individual surveys shows Biden ever so slightly ahead, as we flagged late last week, while others give Trump an edge. A few are exact ties. Trump appears to have an overall advantage in most, or all, of the key swing states, depending on the data set. Biden and his party, however, are thought to have a significantly superior turnout and ballot operation, and consistently enjoy leads among the likeliest, 'high propensity' voters. Thursday's debate is not make-or-break for either candidate, but it promises to be consequential. A Biden over-performance, perhaps including a heavy dash of Trump behavior and rhetoric that reminds swing voters of why they jettisoned Trump four years ago, could push the incumbent into a lead. A Trump win, or a clear Biden loss/viral 'senior moment' could solidify the challenger's position and throw Democrats into an even more open panic.

Post-debate 'snap polls' will help shape a narrative around who had the better night, but it will be days before the dust settles into high-quality polling. As I urged after Trump's conviction, it would be wise to wait and see what happens, especially because survey-taking may be spotty and less reliable over the July 4th holiday week. By the time we get solid post-debate polling, new major events will be upon us: Trump's sentencing in New York, and the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. We may not have a clear picture of if and how public opinion has really moved until roughly a month from now. But we do have a sense of how the battle for the White House looks heading into this pivotal month, starting with Thursday's forum, and concluding with the RNC. As described above, polling is very close at the national level, with Trump modestly or barely ahead in a slew of critical states. Morning Consult has the nationwide ballot tied. CBS News shows Trump ahead by one notch, unchanged from a few weeks ago. One of them is playing host to tomorrow's debate, and there's a fresh survey of its voters out just this week:

📊 Georgia GE: AJC | University of Georgia

🟥 Trump: 43%
🟦 Biden: 38%
🟨 RFK Jr: 9%
🟪 Oliver: 1%
⬜ Undecided: 8%

6/11-20 | 1,000 LV | MoE: ±3.1%https://t.co/VUPhtZXOJQ pic.twitter.com/3TFlu7Dhmt
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 25, 2024

Trump by five, just outside the poll's margin of error, and right in line with the RCP Georgia average. Meanwhile, a here's new poll out of another battleground state:

📊 NEVADA GE: Fabrizio Ward (R) & Impact Research (D) for @AARPNV

🟥 Trump: 48% (+3)
🟦 Biden: 45%

Voters age 50+: Trump 53-41%
---
🟥 Trump: 44% (+7)
🟦 Biden: 37%
🟨 RFK Jr: 10%
—
Senate
🟦 Rosen: 47% (+5)
🟥 Brown: 42%
—
Generic Ballot
🟦 DEM: 46% (=)
🟥 GOP: 46%
—
Biden… pic.twitter.com/vGUNsaNS2y
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 25, 2024

The former president is up three head-to-head, and up seven within the wider field. The generic ballot is Nevada is tied according to this poll, as it approximately is nationally, while Sam Brown (a genuine American hero whom I recently interviewed) has a few points to make up if he wants to close the gap in the Senate race. Polling looked pretty good for Republicans in Nevada in the midterms, then they barely captured the governorship, and narrowly lost a Senate race they were somewhat expected to win. Could the Silver State be fools' gold again? Maybe, especially because Democrats have a formidable machine in Nevada. But someone on the GOP side is working to help level that playing field, which could make a real difference:

NEWS in #DispatchPolitics: Super PAC helmed by veteran GOP field operative aiming to buttress party’s threadbare ground game in NV, plans to deploy 100+ paid/contract staff across state to knock on doors, turn out votes for '24 ticket. https://t.co/MUQeaIhlSM @thedispatch
— David M. Drucker (@DavidMDrucker) June 21, 2024

Finally, since this is a post about the debate and polling, I'll leave you with this: