On Nikki Haley's Strategy

On Monday night in Iowa, Nikki Haley declared the 2024 GOP nomination battle is now a two-person race. Numerous observers noted at the time that this was a somewhat strange pronouncement coming from the third-place finisher -- but it's at least a true statement about the contest that's dead ahead: New Hampshire. If the nominating process has any shot of turning into a real battle, or even if there's going to be a speed bump to slow down Truth's path to securing the crown, Haley must win in the Granite State. If she doesn't, Trump moves to 2-0 and will be the overwhelming favorite to effectively end it definitively in her home state, a little over a month from now. If she wants any shot at pursing the sort of monumental comeback she'd need to challenge Trump in South Carolina, piercing Trump's inevitability argument in New Hampshire is essential. She and Ron DeSantis arguably waited too long to prosecute any aggressive or coherent political case against the far-and-away frontrunner, and to the extent that they finally did, it looked like too little, too late. He won a blowout.

In the Hawkeye State, Trump was running general election-style ads against Biden, as if the primary wasn't even a factor. A large percentage of Haley and DeSantis' energy and messaging was expended against each other, with some mostly-glancing blows against the man they were both chasing from far behind. Based on her post-caucuses speech two nights ago, it looks like Haley will be significantly more aggressive in her posture against Trump in New Hampshire -- a state where independents will participate in the GOP primary, and where Trump lost to Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden (and trails Biden again). The key bit starts around the four-minute mark:

She ties Trump and Biden together as backwards-looking, ancient chaos agents, framing a potential rematch as a continuation of a "Trump-Biden nightmare." She also cites the fact the Republicans have lost the popular vote in seven of the last eight presidential elections, a reference to the 'electability' edge she is trying to underscore. It's true that multiple recent national polls show her beating Biden by the widest margin within the GOP field, but it doesn't seem like primary voters are moved by that argument, especially given Trump's current competitiveness against Biden, as well. Enough of these two guys may represent a fairly popular sentiment within the country writ large, but within the Republican primary context, it has been falling flat. That said, even in Trumpy Iowa, about 40 percent of the right-leaning electorate just voted to turn the page on Trump and/or Trumpism (the former president and his fans may not like this reality, but it is a reality -- and winning in November requires winning over almost all of these people). The composition of next week's primary electorate will likely be more receptive to Haley's positioning. This new ad Leah highlighted yesterday is aimed squarely at New Hampshire's page-turners, and those waverers who are sympathetic to the idea:

Finally, what to make of Haley's decision to reject any upcoming debates that don't feature Donald Trump or Joe Biden? Well, it probably means that Republican debates are over for the cycle (and possibly debates generally, if Biden refuses to debate Trump, if they're again up against each other). Ron DeSantis isn't going to debate anyone who remains in the race who finished far below the top three in Iowa. Trump has absolutely no incentive to debate, as his strategy to ignore them and act like an incumbent who's above that has worked well for him. And now Haley says she's out. So that's over. Is this the right call for her? Maybe, but political analyst Josh Kraushaar thinks she may have misplayed it:

Was a self-inflicted blunder to debate DeSantis one-on-one in Iowa — which probably stunted some of her momentum — and allowed her to be a punching bag for a limping challenger with nothing to lose.

And now avoiding the debates in NH looks like sign of weakness. https://t.co/F5rbagT4aY
— Josh Kraushaar (@JoshKraushaar) January 16, 2024

I'll leave you with this observation about how Trumpworld is battering Haley from two different sides, for two different audiences. For the MAGA and MAGA-adjacent faithful, she's not one of us. For the centrists and 'turn the pagers,' she's hiding how MAGA she really is:

One more stray thought: For the Haley supporters demanding that DeSantis drop out in order to consolidate the non-Trump vote, I think they're missing the reality that many (most?) DeSantis supporters would gravitate toward Trump over Haley. This isn't like the Christie exit. DeSantis getting out, which apparently isn't happening anytime soon (per his campaign), could well boost Trump further, sooner. If the campaigns' internals show this poll is in the zip code of accuracy, the next week six days will be very interesting:

2024 New Hampshire Republican Primary (Shift since 1/3):

Haley 40% (+7)
Trump 40% (+3)
DeSantis 4% (-1)
Ramaswamy 4% (=)
Hutchinson 1% (=)

American Research Group, 600 LV, 1/12-15 https://t.co/JGoA5hXMKy
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) January 16, 2024

UPDATE - We are back to playing 'pick your poll' in New Hampshire. Is the race tied? Or is Trump up single digits? Or is he up double digits?

2024 NH Republican Primary (Shift since 1/7):

Trump 50% (+4)
Haley 34% (+8)
DeSantis 5% (-3)
--
Undecided: 6% (+2)

Suffolk/USA Today (A-) | 1/15-16 | 500 LV https://t.co/DSog04Jy2t pic.twitter.com/t3xsZ6f4Ci
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) January 17, 2024