As Spencer covered yesterday, a new poll out of Georgia looks pretty grim for Democrats. The Atlanta Journal Constitution's survey of voters statewide finds Republican Governor Brian Kemp leading challenger Stacey Abrams by a solid margin, with the incumbent hitting the all-important 50 percent mark. Kemp narrowly defeated Abrams in the blue-tinted 2018 cycle, beating her by a point-and-a-half and roughly 55,000 votes. Abrams never conceded the race, as we've mentioned many times. More on that in a moment. But it's looking like the 2022 rematch may be a lot less dramatic. Kemp's advantage appears to be strong, as Abrams languishes:
GA SEN poll (AJC/UGA, trend from July):
— Reid Wilson (@PoliticsReid) September 20, 2022
Walker (R) 46 (+3)
Warnock (D) 44 (-2)
Oliver (L) 3
GA GOV:
Kemp (R) 50 (+2)
Abrams (D) 42 (-1)
Hazel (L) 1
Job Approvals
Biden 37 approve / 58 dis
Kemp 56 / 39
Warnock 47 / 46https://t.co/pws25CfcXG
Kemp at (+17) approval rating is impressive. The AJC lede on the story: “The latest Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll paints a bleak picture for Georgia Democrats in November, with every statewide candidate aside from U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock facing a sizable deficit less than two months before the election.” In the same survey, all statewide GOP candidates hold sizable-to-commanding lead, including Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, who is ahead of his Democratic opponent by a whopping 19 points. The only very tight race in the poll is the Senate contest, in which Republican Hershel Walker has edged out to a two-point over Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock. If the GOP is going to win back the upper chamber majority in November, that path likely runs through the Peach State. I agree with Josh Kraushaar's "reality check" analysis, both about waning Democratic momentum, and about the Senate landscape:
After Democrats' surge in political momentum over the summer, signs indicate the midterm environment is tilting back in the GOP's direction. Republicans aren't likely to ride a historic red wave to power. But they're well-positioned to comfortably win back the House, and are on surer footing than just weeks ago to net the one seat necessary to capture a narrow Senate majority...Control of the Senate will likely come down to three races: Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania. The party that wins two of those three is poised to hold a narrow 51-seat Senate majority.
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Another new poll out of Georgia shows Kemp ahead by an even more comfortable margin, with the Senate race also virtually tied:
?? GEORGIA POLL By Marist College
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 20, 2022
GOV
(R) Brian Kemp 53% (+11)
(D) Stacey Abrams 42%
SEN
(D) Raphael Warnock 47% (+2)
(R) Herschel Walker 45%
GEN BALLOT
Republicans 51% (+7)
Democrats 44%
Biden Job Approval: 39/56 (-17)
09/12-15 | 992 LV | MoE ±3.6%https://t.co/lnvNHx5qdH
If the numbers mentioned above are in the ballpark of accuracy, it would mean curtains for Stacey Abrams, with a potentially down-to-the-wire nailbiter of a Senate race. And if Kemp can win handily, it would require an awful lot of ticket-splitters to keep Warnock in the Senate. I'd imagine the Walker campaign is likely rooting for as resounding a victory as possible for Kemp. A key for Team Walker will be to pull Warnock's numbers just a little close to Biden's in the state. Meanwhile, Abrams continues to be asked about her election denialism, and her answers continue to be bad:
the only problem with this explanation is that it doesn’t make any sense https://t.co/ouCP841AmH
— Logan Dobson (@LoganDobson) September 20, 2022
Stacey Abrams, with her excuse-making for not accepting election results, is the real threat to democracy in Georgia. https://t.co/Y8zHPtAjLD
— AG (@AGHamilton29) September 19, 2022
She's lying, again, about the new Georgia elections law, and her lies have already been debunked by actual reality -- in which voter participation and turnout smashed all previous records in the 2022 primaries. As for 2018, the fact is that she lost, fair and square. There was no malfeasance or suppression or fraud. Her ego and her 'brand' wouldn't allow her to admit defeat, so she repeatedly stated that she was rightful winner of that 2018 race. Her party and many in the media cheered her on, turning her into a cult figure on the Left, which has also made her rather wealthy. Now that she's been back in the fray, her quality as a candidate is again being tested, and it looks like she's failing that test pretty badly this time around. But not to worry -- the brightest light at The View already has Abrams next big move planned out:
Joy Behar: "If Trump is not in prison ... then I think Gavin Newsom has a chance. Gavin Newsom and Stacey Abrams. What a ticket that would be. Pretty good!" pic.twitter.com/DzKDeVfSuS
— Washington Free Beacon (@FreeBeacon) September 20, 2022
A would-be two-time loser and election truther would be an interesting choice for the Democrats, given how much they're pretending to care about 'threats to democracy' these days, but I wouldn't rule out the possibility that she continues to fail up. I'll leave you with evidence of Democrats' cynical, expensive pro-'threats to democracy' meddling paying political dividends for them:
NEW @axios: "Democratic meddling pays off"
— Josh Kraushaar (@JoshKraushaar) September 19, 2022
"The final tally is in: Democrats succeeded in boosting right-wing candidates in 6 of the 13 Republican primaries they meddled in...The 6 races in which Democrats spent money now look close to unwinnable for Rs"https://t.co/cXRLOVeFbU
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