While we’ve previously covered that the voting bloc driving the socialist surge in places like New York City is largely made up of wealthy, white, college-educated voters, statistician Nate Silver has narrowed that group down even further.
In a new analysis, Silver found that voters most likely to be sympathetic to Democratic Socialists of America-backed candidates are highly educated and have relatively low incomes. In other words, the sweet spot is not just college-educated voters, but college-educated voters who have managed to pair credentialed grievance with economic disappointment.
Income and education are usually positively correlated. But sometimes the relationship breaks down. What's the most Democratic voting group in America? People with post-graduate degrees but lower-to-middle incomes. pic.twitter.com/pUp0pLSiGM
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 21, 2026
In today's newsletter, I argue this is the sweet spot for the DSA. DSA members are *very* college-educated (80% BA+) but *not* particularly well-off (45% HHI incomes below $60K). Their class status is ambiguous. But they tend to be very liberal on culture as well as economics. pic.twitter.com/yXAW5pVczi
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 21, 2026
"The most Democratic voting group in America," Silver wrote, is "voters with postgraduate degrees but lower-to-middle household incomes of $30K to $60K per year."
I’m reminded here of Peter Turchin’s elite overproduction hypothesis. It basically argues that America is producing “too many” college graduates relative to the number of high-prestige, well-paying jobs available to them. People who wind up in this situation often carry heavy student loan burdens or other sorts of debt. Even if their material situation is objectively “just fine,” it’s rarely great. They’re gloomy about their own financial prospects, and feel aggrieved about the state of the country. Their class status is ambiguous: privileged in some senses, but they’re part of the “have-nots” in other meaningful ways.
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The Democratic Socialist [Communist] of America (DSA) is NOT a working-class party. 80% are college-educated. 45% report incomes under $60K.
— RedWave Press (@RedWavePress) July 22, 2026
DSA Racial Breakdown:
White: 85%
Hispanic: 8%
Asian American: 5%
Black: 4%
Profession:
White Collar & Other: 71%
Blue-Collar: 4%… pic.twitter.com/DSjIu1Cfi1
Republican voters are the opposite; 60 percent are those who didn't attend college, but make over $60,000 a year.
In other words, the DSA is driven by a very particular kind of elitism. Not the productive kind, the kind embodied by business leaders who have spent decades building, hiring, and providing for America. Not the kind found in economists like Milton Friedman, who trusted individuals rather than government to make decisions. Instead, it is powered by people who are overcredentialed, underproductive, and seemingly eager for a government post where they can finally feel useful.
Editor’s Note: New York City is now facing the consequences of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s socialist takeover.
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