A UN-affiliated famine monitoring group, which recently warned that a “worst-case scenario of famine” is unfolding in the Gaza Strip, quietly revised its methodology for assessing famine and lowered the threshold needed to officially declare one.
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), a coalition of Western governments, the United Nations, and multiple nonprofit groups, released a report in late July, declaring "the worst-case scenario of famine is currently playing out in the Gaza Strip," and "mounting evidence shows that widespread starvation, malnutrition, and disease are driving a rise in hunger-related deaths." The report was widely circulated in the United States in outlets like CNN, NPR, ABC News, and The New York Times. The Times, specifically, reported that "months of severe aid restrictions imposed by Israel on the territory" have resulted in famine "across most of Gaza."
However, the IPC altered the criteria required to declare a famine in Gaza. Traditionally, the organization relies on height and weight measurements to assess famine conditions. In Gaza, it has shifted to using only mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC), a measure historically considered less reliable. At the same time, the threshold of children affected, necessary to declare a famine, was lowered from 30 percent to 15 percent.
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— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) August 12, 2025
UN-Linked Report Lowered Standards to Declare Gaza Famine
The UN-linked IPC lowered famine standards for Gaza in its July 29 report, replacing traditional weight-height checks with MUAC arm measurements and cutting the child malnutrition threshold from 30% to 15%.… pic.twitter.com/rpTAv2PqX6
MUAC measurements are easier to perform, especially in conflict zones, and generally, the IPC has refrained from declaring famines based on less accurate measurements like MUAC. The precedent was overlooked in Gaza's case.
One veteran aid industry insider told the Washington Free Beacon that this was a "pretty big shift" in standards. They continued by saying the IPC could be "lowering the bar, or trying to make it easier for the famine determination to be made." In this case, that is almost certainly true.
One of the IPC benchmarks for famine is over 30% of children suffer from wasting. Children are more vulnerable to rapid weight loss during food crises; that’s why every feeding centre anywhere in the world during famine, is full of kids.@JuliaHB1 - the blood will never wash off https://t.co/NxGk0NxjNv
— Philip Proudfoot (@PhilipProudfoot) July 28, 2025
The IPC report disclosed the change in a brief note attached to an asterisk beneath a graphic titled, “When is Famine Classified?” The note referenced the MUAC metric, which is not intended to replace the more comprehensive measurements of height and weight, used to determine famines.
The IPC itself still regards weight and height measurements as its primary indicators of malnutrition, according to a source familiar with the organization’s methodology that the Free Beacon spoke with. Its July report directs readers seeking "further information on how the IPC classifies Famine" to a “Famine Fact Sheet,” which makes no mention of MUAC. The IPC’s technical manual further specifies that an official “famine classification” can only be issued once “reliable data” on acute malnutrition is established using weight and height measurements, or another metric that explicitly does not include MUAC.
Apparently, the IPC did not deem the conflict in Gaza important enough to abide by their technical manual.
They still determined acute malnutrition levels in the cities of Deir al-Balah, Khan Younis, and Gaza City. In Deir al-Balah and Khan Younis, acute malnutrition levels were below 8 percent. In Gaza City, it was at 16.5 percent. All significantly below the previous standard of 30 percent, historically required to declare a famine. Although they do represent significant increases since before the conflict, with the changing requirements by the IPC, it is even difficult to determine the accuracy of any comparison now and before the war.
The change in requirements caught many aid workers by surprise.
"If this is what you are considering, it is an issue," one veteran aid worker told the Free Beacon. "If you're planning to make a famine declaration based off the 15-percent MUAC, we as practitioners would say that's an issue." They then pointed to previous famines where the IPC used more accurate measurements.
In all of the famines that have been declared, they've been using the 30-percent global malnutrition measurement, most of which have been based on the weight-for-height metric—which, again, is much harder to collect, much more burdensome, and it's 30 percent. So, this asterisk that's been added for Gaza essentially says that they're going to allow a 15-percent global malnutrition rate measured by MUAC.
I think many people would say it's like lowering the bar or making it more possible, essentially, to declare whatever it is that they're going to declare.
This is all combined with a lack of journalistic rigor that has plagued the UN in its investigation in Gaza. The IPC reported that "over 20,000 children have been admitted for treatment for acute malnutrition between April and mid-July, with more than 3,000 severely malnourished." It also claims that Gaza hospitals "have reported a rapid increase in hunger-related deaths of children under five years of age, with at least 16 reported deaths since 17 July."
Where was this information acquired from?
"Internal documents" from sources that are "not publicly available." This makes these reports impossible to verify, but seemingly still credible enough to declare a widespread famine. The data the IPC relies on often comes from the Hamas-controlled Gaza Health Ministry and other aid organizations linked to terror groups.
Richard Goldberg, a former White House and National Security Council staffer in both Trump administrations, and current senior advisor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told The Washington Free Beacon:
If you keep pulling the thread here, you start to understand this is one of the greatest frauds ever perpetrated on the world. There is no famine in Gaza—the data thresholds don’t support that claim—and yet we have the United Nations changing the rules to fit the desired political outcome.
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