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Tipsheet

Melania Movie Smashes Box Office Projections

Melania Movie Smashes Box Office Projections
AP Photo/Richard Drew

"Melania," the documentary about the First Lady that opened January 30, has greatly exceeded expectations and now holds the title for the top opening for a non-musical documentary in more than a decade.

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Analysts predicted the film would earn between $2 and $5 million in its opening weekend; the film is now north of $7 million domestically.

The last time a documentary did this well, it was the DisneyNature doc "Chimpanzee," which had a $10.6 million opening weekend.

The movie, which focuses on the First Lady's life during the three weeks before President Trump's 2025 inauguration, was backed by Amazon MGM Studios, who spent $40 million for a rights fee and $35 million for marketing. 

To date, the film has outgrossed five films nominated for Academy Awards, including two Best Picture nominees. According to Breitbart, those movies are "Blue Moon," nominated for Best Actor, Original Screenplay ($2.11 million), "If I Had Legs I'd Kick You," nominated for Best Actress ($1.09 million), "It Was Just an Accident," nominated for Original Screenplay, Foreign Film ($1.78 million), "The Secret Agent," nominated for Best Picture, Best Actor, Casting, and Foreign Film ($3.25 million), and "Sentimental Value," nominated for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Foreign Film, and Editing ($4.57 million).

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Hollywood is apparently "reeling" from this development.

"No one saw that coming," the Hollywood Reporter wrote, adding that many had written the film off, "based on empty, or nearly empty, seat maps in cinemas across the country."

The success comes despite critics panning the movie. On Rotten Tomatoes, the critics' score is six percent, but the Popcornmeter is 99 percent. The Left has also review-bombed IMDb, giving the movie a 1.3 out of 10 stars. It's doubtful that many of those negative reviewers even saw the film.

There's even more good news out there, because Democrats might be worried about how well the film is doing.

Fox News host Paul Mauro said the film is indicative of a "silent majority" that might spell trouble for Democrats in the midterms.

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"But what they're really worried about is if this is indicia for the midterms," Mauro said. "Because they're all saying, 'Oh, it's done! We're going to control Congress!' this is the indication that this silent majority is still out there."

They do say that politics is downstream of culture, after all. And Hollywood has, for a long time, been out of touch with the average American — look no further than the Grammys or the Golden Globe to see just how far-removed from reality celebrities truly are.

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