A New Poll Shows AOC Beating Vance in 2028. There's Just One Problem

Despite the 2026 midterms being the next big election, eyes are already looking past next November and to 2028. President Trump is leaving office for the last time, and the GOP needs to decide who will step up to run for the White House. One of the obvious answers is Vice President Vance, of course.

Hypothetical matchups between Vance and other Democrats pop up on social media now and then, and yesterday one of Vance versus Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) made the rounds. That poll has AOC up by two percentage points over Vance.

🇺🇸 2028 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

🟦 A. Ocasio-Cortez: 51%
🟥 JD Vance: 49%

The Argument/Verasight | 12/5-11 | 1,511 RV https://t.co/2WlczoOZUB pic.twitter.com/ma4PdOElWB
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) December 17, 2025

The post links to an article from The Argument that asks if Democrats have lost their edge on education. Here's more:

For the longest time, it was the Democrats who held a commanding edge on education. Even in the reddest of areas, with no Democratic Party, bench, or liberal culture to speak of, Democrats would pull scores of conservative voters for elections concerning public schools.
If The Argument’s newest survey is any indication, that advantage may have been wiped out. We asked registered voters a series of questions about parenting and schools and discovered that Republicans now hold a slight advantage on education.
When it comes to parenting and parents’ rights, this gap is even wider — Republicans hold a 37% to 32% issue advantage.
Tellingly, much of the Democratic deficit is being driven by the party’s own voters. Just 65% of Harris voters — and just 49% of Black voters — actually believe that the Democratic Party aligns with them on matters of parenting.
It’s difficult to pinpoint the cause for this disconnect, but our survey does offer some clues that point to Democrats’ stance on social issues. For instance, although 78% of liberal Harris voters believe that the party aligns with them on parenting, just 49% of moderate or conservative Democratic voters agree.1 (The main silver lining for Democrats here is that their voters are refusing to align with Republicans, even when they disagree with the party’s stances.)
We included some issue questions that better illustrate what’s driving this. For example, 36% of Harris voters and majorities of Black and Hispanic voters oppose “allowing students to use the restrooms for the gender they identify with, even when that differs from the gender they were assigned at birth.”

So, once again, our neighbors to the north are meddling in our elections. And we'll note the best they can do is give AOC two points over Vance. On election day last year, IAPolls2022 posted ten final election forecasts from various polling outlets; only two showed President Trump winning, and both of those grossly underestimated the total of Electoral Votes Trump received.

On top of that, AOC's underwater in terms of favorability.

Lmao pic.twitter.com/ZuuIDHuBhB
— Slender Mandalorian (@SlenderMando) December 17, 2025

That's not shocking. Yelling at people about "taxing the rich" while you rub elbows with celebrities at the Met Gala is a bad look.

Canada is meddling in our elections again.
— Stacey-AA7YA 🇺🇸🎙️ 📻🎧 (@AA7YA) December 17, 2025

They sure are. We thought foreign election interference was a bad thing.

A Canadian poll … GTFO 😂 https://t.co/ZHjdFu70SU
— The🐰FOO (@PolitiBunny) December 17, 2025

Yes. Get out of here.

This ridiculous pollster also had Kamala beating Trump in 2024, so take this as you will.

And even at 51-49, Vance wins the Electoral College, so there’s that. https://t.co/RGBDkT3cek
— Joe Concha (@JoeConchaTV) December 17, 2025

They always seem to forget the Electoral College.

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