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Tipsheet

Just How Panicked Are Virginia Democrats? Well...

AP Photo/Cliff Owen, File

Democrats in Virginia are working to disenfranchise the state's Republican voters by pushing for a redistricting scheme that would give them a permanent supermajority in the state.

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Here's more from the New York Times:

The next front in the nation’s pitched battle over mid-decade congressional redistricting is opening in Virginia, where Democrats are planning the first step toward redrawing congressional maps, a move that could give their party two or three more seats.

The surprise development, which was announced by legislators on Thursday, would make Virginia the second state, after California, in which Democrats try to counter a wave of Republican moves demanded by President Trump to redistrict states to their advantage before the 2026 midterm elections. No other Democratic state has begun redistricting proceedings, while several Republican states have drawn new maps or are deliberating doing so.

Democrats now hold six of Virginia’s 11 congressional seats. Redistricting could deliver two or three additional seats for the party, depending on how aggressive cartographers choose to be in a redrawing effort.

Last November, President Trump received 46.6 percent of the votes. If this redistricting plan passes, it would mean Republicans would hold only 18 percent of the state House seats in a state where at least 40% of voters are Republican. That's not representative government.

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In 2020, the overwhelming majority of Virginians voted for a constitutional amendment to codify nonpartisan redistricting.

Youngkin also called the proposal "nuts."

"I think it is unconstitutional," Youngkin said. He added the Democrats are "trying to run some desperate ploy to redistrict Virginia." 

"Five years ago, the commonwealth held a constitutional amendment referendum...it passed overwhelmingly, supported to have a bipartisan redistricting commission to take care of this thing. And now here they are trying to override the vote of Virginians and take votes away from Virginians in order to drive this crazy political aspiration to make Virginia look like California," Youngkin said.

The redistricting plan is bad for Republicans, bad for Virginia, a brazen Democratic power grab:

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The entire post reads:

2) Can the Supreme Court stop this?

No, this is perfectly legal, even if it’s extremely cynical, ruthless, and a blatant power grab that breaks over 100 years of history and tradition in Virginia. There is no legal argument that exists to stop this in the courts.

3) How can this happen so quickly?

The Constitution of Virginia says that amendments must be passed by the General Assembly twice with one election held in between. Provided the Democrats in Richmond pass this amendment before November 4, they can come back and pass the same exact amendment in January and send it to the voters for ratification.

4) Can this be done before the midterms? 

Yes, but it requires precise timing. The Constitution says the amendment must be put up for a vote no sooner than 90 days after it is finally passed by the General Assembly. As long as Democrats still win the House of Delegates in November, they pass the amendment in January and hold a referendum in May. Democrats can also change the primary date to August if they want to give themselves more time to actually gerrymander Virginia’s congressional maps.

5) Could this referendum actually pass?

Democrats will frame it as “saving our Democracy” and use Virginia’s mild Blue lean plus their edge in low turnout off-year and special elections to win. If this referendum were held on the same day as a midterm or presidential election I think they’d lose, but a special May referendum? That’s totally unprecedented in Virginia’s history. They would be more likely than not to prevail. 

6) What districts would Democrats pick up from redistricting? 

Theoretically? Every seat but the 9th. In reality, it will likely be the 1st, 5th, and 2nd. It is relatively easy to draw an 9-2 map for Democrats in Virginia, complete with a supermajority in both chambers of the General Assembly. If that were to actually happen, then it’s over. Virginia would become a second Maryland.

Here’s just an example of what a gerrymandered map would look like.

The top line is that we are in totally uncharted waters, but it’s just another sign of the times. This is what wielding power without apology actually looks like. All of this is legal. And none of it is even considered by the Right because our side is comprised of losers who view playing to win as a violation of their own principles.

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Despite this bleak prediction, there is a glimmer of hope. Legally, this move could be ruled unconstitutional because the general election began in September.

The entire post reads:

Early voting began in September. Hundreds of thousands of ballots have already been cast. With an election currently underway, one could argue that Democrats have missed the deadline to pass a constitutional amendment prior to “the next general election” as the general election began on September 19.

We need @JasonMiyaresVA to win this race for Attorney General so he can immediately sue the Democrats in the General Assembly on the grounds that this power grab is unconstitutional.

Early voting and, therefore, the general election began on September 19.

Incumbent Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears told Virginians they must block her opponent, Abigail Spanberger, from destroying Virginia, writing in an X post, "This election is a referendum on who we are as Virginians."

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The move to call a special session would also pull Earle-Sears and Republicans running for the House of Delegates off the campaign trail:

Ken Cuccinelli, former Virginia Attorney General, issued a statement to Townhall and said, "The requirement for an intervening election is rather obviously in place for accountability to the voters. Virginia’s election began a month ago, so the next intervening election that could fulfill the requirement necessary for amending the Virginia constitution is the 2027 election."

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