The polls are unreliable. You already know this — some surveys show a blue tsunami, others show a chance of the GOP retaining control of Congress, and others leave one immobile. It’s not 2018. We’ve had firms get busted for peddling fake polls that have upset the formulas, and some predictions are facially untrue: Florida won’t have a Democrat governor, and Texas won’t flip blue. I’m channeling the late Jim Fassel when he gave his playoff guarantee in 2000 for the New York Giants.
"I am raising the stakes right now. If this is a poker game, I am shoving my chips right in the middle of the table. I am raising the ante. Anybody who wants out, can get out. This team is going to the playoffs." - Jim Fassel THIS TEAM IS GOING TO THE PLAYOFFS! #GiantsPride https://t.co/T1zzi7ccUt
— Big Blue United (@BigBlueUnited) May 12, 2021
Let’s raise the stakes and up the ante: the GOP will retain control of Congress.
That’s my gut feeling. The Democrats have nominated whack jobs; their unhinged, white, wealthy, snobby, and overeducated base keeps surveys out of whack, and they have said next to nothing about the issues on voters’ minds. It’s all about power and impeaching Trump. The Strait of Hormuz is open, oil flows are at pre-war levels, gas prices are coming down, and the economy is booming.
Speaker Mike Johnson dismisses NYT poll showing a blue tsunami. "You can totally dismiss these bogus polls," he said on my podcast. "I'm telling you, they are wrong. I have traveled more than anybody in America. I've been to all the swing districts, the blue states, the places they say that all hope is lost for the Republicans. We have huge enthusiastic crowds everywhere. People are riled up. It feels like 2024 to me on the campaign trail."
— toddstarnes (@toddstarnes) November 2, 2026
NBC News: Republicans vs Democrats Immigration: 🔴 R+11 Government corruption: 🔴 R+5 The economy: 🔴 R+2 Protecting democracy: 🟡 Tied Controlling inflation: 🔵 D+1 War in Iran: 🔵 D+5 Transgender issues: 🔵 D+5 https://t.co/g6r6h950CV
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) November 2, 2026
Five Trump states flipping to Democrats? @LarryOConnor is NOT joining the panic over a Senate map built on polls he doesn’t trust. “Texas, North Carolina, Kansas, Iowa, and Alaska, those are five states that Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, carried by 10 points or more.” “It has never happened before that five Republican states that just elected a Republican president two years later swings that far in the other direction and loses the Senate race. It’s literally never happened before.” “Could it happen? Well, of course it could happen. Of course it could. Are we gonna waste a lot of time here? Wringing our hands saying it probably will happen, or because it could happen, we should figure out why it won’t. No. Not when most of these decisions are based on what everyone roundly recognizes are flawed polls.”
— Townhall.com (@townhallcom) November 2, 2026
NYT: There are still some undecided voters And voters who decided only in the last month favored Republicans by a 9 point margin per NYT https://t.co/KJk5ENkYxt
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) November 2, 2026
Republicans are leading on the congressional ballot in GOP-held districts and in states Trump won in 2024 Per NBC Poll https://t.co/6yYwegFWHX
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) November 1, 2026
If there is a wave, it’ll be contained to blue states, which isn’t a shock. That means a low tide, and unlike the GOP, the Democrats, with their various whiny and rambunctious factions, won’t be able to get anything done with a slim majority. Speaker Mike Johnson has passed numerous key pieces of legislation with a bare-bones majority, a stark contrast to Senate Majority Leader John Thune and his effete tenure as majority leader.
But you already know Thune sucks. As we’ve been saying for weeks, screw the polls. Go vote. Make history today. The party in power has seen no net loss on the Hill only twice. The last time was 2002 under Bush. Vote Republican. Vote American, and stop the Antifa, pro-terrorist, pro-Palestinian, and pro-communist trash that’s trying to invade our institutions. Kill it off and finally plunge the dagger into the heart of the polling industry, which has become nothing more than a suppression tool for Democrats, peddling trash surveys to drive down GOP voter enthusiasm. Ann Selzer tried to do that in Iowa with Kamala. We put her into retirement.
Ignore the noise. Go vote. Let’s chop off the donkey’s head.
We’ll have live coverage at 7 PM ET.
AtlasIntel poll | 10/28-11/1 LV US Senate Minnesota 2026 🟦Peggy Flanagan 48.1% 🟥Michele Tafoya 45.7% https://t.co/o3ttiWq2L1
— Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 (@PollTracker2024) November 2, 2026
NYT: A memo circulating among a powerful Republican donor group see 4 states as the party's "red wall" in the Senate: 🔴 Maine 🔴 Ohio 🔴 Alaska 🔴 Iowa https://t.co/nM7Khtzwc3
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) November 2, 2026
Editor's Note: Do you enjoy Townhall's conservative reporting exposing the radical left and woke media? Support our work so we can keep bringing you the truth.
Join Townhall VIP and use promo code FIGHT to receive 60% off your membership.
Join the Conversation
VIP members get the ability to comment on articles.