Abdul El-Sayed won the U.S. Senate Democrat primary in Michigan, narrowly beating Rep. Haley Stevens, who wasn’t expected to have a chance last night. Reports indicated that Stevens’ pollster said they were doomed and trailing by double digits. That wasn’t accurate: rural and black voters turned out in large numbers for Stevens, who just barely lost to El-Sayed. So, yes, the far Left has its victory, so to speak: they secured a big primary win. The bad news is that there are warning signs everywhere that El-Sayed will face significant challenges in the general election.
Beginning to think that the @umichvoter story about Stevens's pollster saying they were down 14 and doomed was less than 100% true.
— David Weigel (@daveweigel) August 5, 2026
Abdul would perform even worse with rural voters in the general election and would do even worse than the average Democrat.
— Lauren Werner (@LaurenWern) August 5, 2026
Rural voters in Michigan make up about 19% of the state's population but they comprised around 40% of the increased voter turnout in 2024. https://t.co/fTL69K2YyE
Rep. Haley Stevens is overperforming in a bunch of rural Michigan counties that Bernie Sanders won in the 2016 presidential primary.
— Craig Mauger (@CraigDMauger) August 5, 2026
For former Rep. Mike Rogers, the Republican candidate, you have to be pleased with this result. A Michigan flip here almost guarantees the GOP will retain control of the Senate. NBC News called the race earlier this morning:
These are the type of primary results that — win or lose — raise lots of red flags surrounding El-Sayed’s electability.
— Josh Kraushaar (@JoshKraushaar) August 5, 2026
Black voters going big for Stevens, so far.
Good drop from Washtenaw for El-Sayed, gained 2.2k more there from ED. Big for him, and there might be more left there. Would give him a big buffer before these last Wayne ballots.
— Zachary Donnini (@ZacharyDonnini) August 5, 2026
Still feel good about 1-1.5 points. https://t.co/snVYBjbOmj
Remaining ballots:
— VoteHub (@VoteHub) August 5, 2026
• Roughly 77,000 votes in Wayne County, which will likely decide the race. We have little information about where they are from or what voting method they represent, though we do not believe they are from Detroit or Dearborn, either candidate’s strongest…
VoteHub: Some precincts in Macomb County are shifting heavily towards Haley Stevens as Election Day and mail-in ballots come in.
— Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 (@PollTracker2024) August 5, 2026
They show a 60 point shift towards Stevens.#MichiganSenate pic.twitter.com/uvO2MMAXkv
He'll have a bit more margin coming from Dearborn. And, he'll have some Lansing City later in the night. But after that, it's a little unclear where he will be gaining vote.
— Zachary Donnini (@ZacharyDonnini) August 5, 2026
But Stevens just gained 4k in an Oakland AB drop, and there's probably 10k more margin there for her. https://t.co/CsHiyhGjrM
We have a race here. https://t.co/LSlIRv0kfF
— Zachary Donnini (@ZacharyDonnini) August 5, 2026
Abdul El-Sayed has won Michigan’s slugfest of a Democratic Senate primary, NBC News projects, clinching the nomination in a close race over Rep. Haley Stevens and establishing a Midwest beachhead for a progressive left on the march this midterm cycle.
El-Sayed overcame a nearly $65 million onslaught of outside money and an establishment that had rallied around Stevens. Popular Gov. Gretchen Whitmer endorsed Stevens late last month — a move seen as a last-ditch effort to stop a rising El-Sayed.
[…]
The closing month of the primary grew increasingly hostile, especially after a third Democrat, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, dropped out last month. McMorrow had tried to cut a path between Stevens and El-Sayed, running as a compromise candidate who could appeal both to moderates and the progressive left.
But the flood of TV ads in Stevens’ behalf and the energy around El-Sayed’s Sanders-backed campaign left little room for McMorrow, and the differences between the two remaining Democrats became even more pronounced once their mutual rival exited.
Stevens often accused El-Sayed of focusing too much on national politics and not enough on Michigan. The July 24 endorsement from Whitmer, who beat El-Sayed in the 2018 Democratic primary for governor, helped underline Stevens’ argument. So did a recent call El-Sayed held with donors.
On the call, audio of which leaked to NBC News and others, El-Sayed said a victory for him in Michigan could reverberate into 2028 and encourage primary challengers against the likes of Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., who has fallen out of favor with the left. He characterized such a move as putting “an ogre on a pike” — rhetoric that some Democrats believed was targeted at Stevens, though El-Sayed had described Fetterman as an “ogre” in the past.
It’s disgusting that a man with ties to Hasan Piker and other terrorist sympathizers got this far, but with only a 1.8-point margin of victory. Still, there are signs that white, liberal suburbanites are increasingly forming a crimpeline suit brigade. In Stevens’ home county, she wasn’t defeating El-Sayed decisively, which likely contributed to her falling short here.
If Stevens falls short, her lackluster performance in her home county of suburban Oakland cld be what does her in.
— Josh Kraushaar (@JoshKraushaar) August 5, 2026
Only up 51-46% in her home base (and that's with huge margins with Jewish voters).
Sign that white affluent suburbanites are swinging to the socialist left.
Abdul El-Sayed called Mike Rogers a "generationally bad candidate" and predicted he would win a by 7 points
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) August 4, 2026
2026 Michigan Senate Race Poll Average
🔴 Mike Rogers: 46.7% (+4.4)
🔵 Abdul El-Sayed: 42.3%
270ToWin Averages pic.twitter.com/pTaoS2EcGy
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