Ashley Moody has won Florida’s Senate race, defeating Democratic Socialists of America-backed candidate Angie Nixon in a strong start for Republicans on Tuesday night.

After being appointed to replace Marco Rubio when he became secretary of state, Moody finished out his term and has now won her first full term in the Senate. Rubio, a favorite in the Trump administration, left big shoes to fill, making the prospect of a DSA-backed candidate taking his former seat all the more alarming. Thankfully, Republicans retained the seat, though by a far narrower margin than they would have liked.

Moody currently holds over 50 percent of the vote to Nixon’s 48.5 percent. 

The race, however, was far closer than Republicans would have liked in solidly red Florida. Nixon secured over 3.7 million votes and has so far vastly outperformed Democratic gubernatorial candidate David Jolly, a moderate by comparison, and a result that should come as a major surprise. 

Early voting heavily favored Nixon, who remained ahead of Moody even after more than three-quarters of the votes had been counted. The Panhandle has yet to report and is expected to favor Republicans. So far, however, counties that backed Trump by significant margins in 2024 appear to have shifted sharply toward Democrats, even where Republicans still hold the lead. 

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Republicans can hope that pattern remains isolated to Florida. But with polling favoring Democrats in the battle for both the Senate and the House, the question is whether these results reflect a local shift or an early sign of a broader pattern.