When Major General Mohammad Pakpour thundered in Tehran on Oct. 21 that Iran would “open the gates of hell” if Israel struck again, he was doing what authoritarian regimes do best in moments of vulnerability, replacing facts with fury, and competence with cant. The rhetoric is theatrical, meant to impress domestic and regional audiences, but the substance is wafer-thin, and the consequences dangerously destabilizing.
Let’s start with the claim on which the new IRGC chief stakes his credibility, that Iran’s missile response during the June flare-up was precise, penetrative, and, in the words of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, a “shocking slap” that struck deep into “sensitive Israeli centers.” If true, this would represent not just tactical success, but a strategic game-changer. The inconvenient truth, however, is that the evidence presented by Iranian state media, and echoed by regime officials, is riddled with contradictions and the hallmarks of propaganda.
Pakpour’s boast that “we nevertheless launched our missiles successfully and hit the targets we had precisely identified” collapses under scrutiny. Consider this: Iran’s own strategic command and air defense networks have been repeatedly exposed. The June killing of former IRGC commander Hossein Salami, reportedly in a precision strike, underscores that vulnerability. If Iran cannot shield its senior military leadership or secure its nuclear infrastructure, how could it execute a coordinated, undetected, and successful long-range strike into Israeli territory?
Second, Pakpour undermines his own narrative by referencing Israeli defense systems, the Aegis and THAAD arrays, as key challenges. Why boast about penetrating a defense you publicly admit is formidable?
Either the claim of success is hollow, or the acknowledgment of Israel’s defenses is. It can’t be both. Credible deterrence is built on verifiable outcomes, not contradictory posturing.
Third, Tehran’s broader messaging reveals its strategic confusion. It oscillates between belligerent threats and urgent reassurances that it “does not seek war.” This mismatch reveals not strength, but insecurity. Deterrence isn’t the number of threats a state can issue; it is the coherence of its strategy, the resilience of its logistics, and the reliability of its intelligence. On these fronts, Iran’s record is increasingly poor.
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There’s also a military reality that Tehran’s hyperbole tries to obscure. Ballistic missiles are blunt instruments. They are designed more for intimidation than precision. Their utility lies in psychological and political impact, not surgical military effect. Iranian claims of “deep strikes” into “sensitive Israeli centers” read more like headlines from a state-controlled media script than the sober analysis of battlefield outcomes. Worse still, Tehran’s incendiary rhetoric is not merely hollow; it is strategically dangerous. Threats to “make them a hell they will not forget” don’t deter conflict; they invite it. The more Tehran clings to the illusion of invulnerability, the more it invites miscalculation, both by itself and by its adversaries.
So, what is really going on? Pakpour’s threats are loud because Tehran feels cornered. The regime is battling crises on multiple fronts: domestic unrest, economic collapse, elite infighting, and growing international isolation. This is not the behaviour of a confident state; it's the flailing of a vulnerable regime trying to paper over its weaknesses with theatrical bravado.
Authoritarian regimes tend to shout loudest when they’re on the edge of collapse. And collapse is not a far-fetched scenario. Iran’s legitimacy is threadbare. Its economy is buckling under sanctions, corruption and mismanagement. The younger generation, better informed and more connected than ever, has no faith in theocracy. Popular uprisings in 2009, 2017, 2019, and 2022 have all made one thing clear: the people of Iran want change, not reform. They want a secular, democratic republic, not a return to the autocratic monarchy of the hated Shah, nor a religious dictatorship.
And if the regime falls, the consequences will not be chaos; it will be opportunity. A democratic Iran would mark a seismic shift in the Middle East. It would end the regime’s support for terror groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. It would dismantle the apparatus of violent repression at home. It would stop exporting instability and start engaging with neighbors and the world as a peaceful nation-state, not a revolutionary actor.
The fall of the Islamic Republic wouldn’t create a vacuum; it would fill one. The Iranian people, particularly the organized opposition and civil society forces, are more prepared than ever to take the reins. The foundations for a free Iran already exist, in exile communities, in underground networks, in courageous Resistance Units and in the bravery of those protesting on the streets. But for that transformation to happen, the world must stop mistaking volume for viability. Iran’s bluster is not a sign of power. It is the groan of a regime in decline.
The West should reject the false logic of appeasement and stop lending legitimacy to a government that rules through fear and lies. Instead, it should recognize the Iranian people as the legitimate force for change and prepare for the moment, now fast approaching, when that change becomes inevitable.
Pakpour's "gates of hell" remark is not the statement of a general poised for victory. It’s the deflection of a regime hoping to disguise its internal decay with external threats. The Islamic Republic doesn’t stand atop a mountain; it balances on a house of cards. When it falls, the world must be ready to help build something stronger, freer, and better in its place.
Struan Stevenson is the Coordinator of the Campaign for Iran Change (CiC). He was a member of the European Parliament representing Scotland (1999-2014), president of the Parliament's Delegation for Relations with Iraq (2009-14) and chairman of the Friends of a Free Iran Intergroup (2004-14). He is an author and international lecturer on the Middle East.
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