With talks underway on a new deal to de-nuke the Iranian regime, the visit to China, on April 22, of the Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, may have rung some alarm bells in Washington D.C. The intricate web of relationships involving China, Iran, and the Islamic Republic’s so-called ‘Axis of Resistance,’ is an ongoing source of unease for the Trump administration. The nuclear talks have so far involved allegedly ‘indirect’ meetings in Oman and Rome, with further talks in Oman scheduled at the end of April. Although it was claimed the U.S. delegation led by envoy Steve Witkoff, and the Iranian delegation led by Abbas Araghchi, met in separate rooms, with Omani mediators ferrying responses between the two, it has emerged that in fact at least one direct 45-minute face-to-face meeting did take place. Araghchi has described progress on the negotiations as “good.” It may therefore cause a little concern that the Iranian foreign minister is now seeking advice from his close friends and allies in Beijing, prior to proceeding further.
In the intricate mosaic of global geopolitics, few relationships are as layered and pragmatic as those between China and Iran. These relations are not only crucial in a bilateral sense but also reverberate across the broader coalition known as the 'Axis of Resistance,' which includes allies such as Russia, Venezuela, and North Korea. With Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi's visit to China, the spotlight is once again on this multifaceted partnership and its implications for nuclear negotiations with the United States. China and the other ‘Axis of Resistance’ powers object to what they regard as ‘bullying’ by President Trump and are likely to caution the theocratic regime against accepting U.S. terms, which would involve an end to all nuclear enrichment and an end to backing for proxy forces like Hamas, Hezbollah and the Yemeni Houthis. However, Trump has made it clear that non-acceptance of his terms would lead to dire consequences, including “bombing.”
It is clear that the Iranian regime is playing its old tricks once again. The one thing they are determined to avoid is Israeli/American military action against their nuclear facilities. Their traditional tactic is to play for time, to spin out the negotiations, so that any bombing attacks are held at bay while the endless negotiations drag on. Araghchi’s visit to China is part of the time-wasting process. The Americans know that China, as one of the world’s largest importers of oil, has found a valuable partner in Iran, with its rich hydrocarbon resources. This mutually beneficial energy trade, in defiance of Trump’s ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions campaign against Tehran, has continued with China often finding ways to circumvent pressure and maintain its oil imports from Iran. Beijing accounted for at least 77 percent of Iran’s roughly 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) of exported crude in 2024, according to leading analysts. Reuters calculated that the trade amounted to nearly $29 billion last year.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) further cements its ties with Iran, offering a critical corridor that links East and West. This infrastructure and investment strategy bolsters connectivity across the region, reinforcing economic interdependencies and enhancing China’s strategic foothold in the Middle East. The China-Iran BRI was signed in 2016 and embraces a $400 billion 25-year ‘strategic relation agreement’ providing Beijing with preferential access to local natural resources and pledging direct investments by Chinese companies with Chinese personnel. Iran almost becomes a client state of China under the terms of the BRI.
Clearly the mullahs are hoping that sending Araghchi to Beijing may further muddy the waters of the nuclear talks, although it places China in an awkward situation. China’s diplomatic strategies in the Middle East, particularly with Iran, have always involved a careful balancing act. While it seeks to bolster ties with Tehran, Beijing is cautious not to overly antagonize the new Trump administration, with whom it already is fighting a tariff trade war. Beijing also has to tread warily with regional players like Saudi Arabia, another key oil supplier to China and an Iranian rival.
Tehran’s alliance with Moscow, Caracas, and Pyongyang complements its relationship with Beijing, reinforcing a mutual commitment to resisting U.S. sanctions and influence. Russia, another core player in this resistance narrative, partners with Iran on military and geopolitical fronts and indeed, has benefited from importations of Iran-built kamikaze drones being widely used in the war with Ukraine. Meanwhile, Venezuela and North Korea, often aligned through necessity rather than strategic preference, find allies in this coalition that offer diplomatic support and occasionally economic relief in the face of isolation.
An explosive new element has also entered into the U.S./Iran talks. A report just issued by the Dutch Ministry of Intelligence (AIVD) has specifically named the Iranian regime as the likely sponsor of assassination attempts on European soil. The report highlighted the case of two suspects arrested in the Dutch city of Haarlem as they attempted to murder an Iranian dissident. One of the two men arrested was also suspected of involvement in the attempted killing of the leading Spanish politician and key supporter of the Iranian opposition – Professor Alejo Vidal Quadras. The report stated: “On the basis of intelligence, it is probable that Iran is responsible for assassination attempts.” It seems on the cards that the Netherlands agreed to release this explosive document now, to remind the Trump administration of the terrorist nature of the regime they are dealing with. Indeed, the revelations in the report should also send a clear message to the EU, that the time for talking to the mullahs has long since expired. There is no point in further negotiations. The U.S. and EU should give their full backing to the main democratic opposition movement to the mullahs and join them in their efforts to overthrow this pariah regime and restore freedom, democracy and justice to the beleaguered Iranian population. In the meantime, it will be interesting to see if Tehran’s Chinese takeaway forces Trump to press the ‘pause’ button.
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