Warning that enemies of the Iranian regime “are thinking about instigating sedition inside the country, like they did in some previous years,” 85-year-old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei predicted that his repressive, theocratic regime faces an imminent crisis. In a speech to mark Nowruz – the Iranian New Year – on March 31, the elderly and enfeebled Supreme Leader referred to the rapid pace of developments that “are happening at a dizzying speed.” He was clearly referencing the strident threats from President Trump, who has set a deadline of two months for Khamenei to comply with the complete dismantling of his clandestine nuclear program, including an end to uranium enrichment, plus an end to further weaponization and missile development. Trump, who has ramped up further tough sanctions on Iran, has warned that there will be serious consequences if his threats are ignored. Trump unilaterally withdrew America from Barack Obama’s deeply flawed Iran nuclear deal during his first presidency in 2018, describing it as “the worst deal in America’s history.” There is growing apprehension that Trump may now provide American air cover in an Israeli onslaught on the Iranian regime’s key nuclear installations.
Khamenei’s mention of sedition is also a clear reference to his fear of another nationwide uprising, similar to those that occurred in 2017-2018 on economic issues, then again in 2019-2020 over fuel price hikes and in 2022 following the death in custody of the young Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini. In each case millions took to the streets across the entire country and were met with brute force by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – the regime’s Gestapo, and their Basij militia thugs. Hundreds were killed and thousands imprisoned and tortured. Khamenei and his so-called ‘moderate’ president, Masoud Pezeshkian, have presided over a frenzy of executions in a bid to frighten the rebellious public into submission. In the past year hangings have increased by 42 percent compared to the previous year, with almost 1200 executed, including many women and many juveniles. Given the secretive and unrecorded nature of many executions, the actual number is likely to be much higher. Recently the hangings have numbered almost five per day. The state killing machine has simply enraged the public and emboldened the Resistance Units of the main democratic opposition movement - the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK), to take further anti-regime action.
Due to venal corruption, endemic maladministration and the unrestrained funding of proxy militias across the Middle East, the Iranian economy is now bankrupt. Ninety-five million Iranians are struggling to feed their families. Revolution is in the air. They know that the mullahs are at their weakest point ever. The fall of their key ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria and the effective decapitation of Hezbollah in Lebanon has brought the regime to its knees. Trump has also warned Khamenei that henceforth he will hold him personally responsible for any drone or missile attacks on commercial shipping in the Gulf launched by the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. An Israeli air strike on Iran’s defensive missile systems exposed its hopeless vulnerability. Khamenei realizes that his days are numbered, and his Nowruz speech reflected that gloomy outlook. Four and a half decades of criminality and plunder have wrecked this once rich and proud nation.
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State-run media were quick to echo Khamenei’s doom-laden remarks. The Ensaf News ran a headline: “Will Iran’s Economy Collapse in (the Persian year)1404 [March 2025-March 2026]?” The Instagram website Rouydad24 headlined: “Why is there no plan to save the industry?” A regime-affiliated analyst, Imani Rad, spoke publicly of how the regime had reached a “dangerous point” where in the near future “the government loses its ability to control crises,” resulting in “social tensions and internal unrest,” ultimately leading “to a stage of instability and collapse.” The Shargh newspaper’s website made the threat clearer with the banner headline: “Bread Riots in (the Persian year) 1404.”
Khamenei had hoped that, through intermediaries, he could negotiate a deal with the Americans that would allow him to continue a reduced nuclear program, ostensibly for peaceful energy reasons, in return for the lifting of sanctions. Trump has flatly refused any such compromise, knowing that the Iranians have cheated from day one and accelerated their race to build a nuclear weapon. The U.S. commander-in-chief has bluntly warned that Tehran’s refusal to accept his terms will lead to “bombing.” To underline the seriousness of his threat, Trump has deployed a number of B-2 stealth bombers to the Indian Ocean. These bombers are capable of carrying out long-range precision strikes and have been positioned in the region as a stark reminder to the mullahs of how military action will follow quickly if diplomacy fails.
Mike Waltz, Trump’s National Security Adviser, has emphasized that the administration’s goal for the Iranian regime is complete nuclear disarmament. He stated that Iran must “hand over and give up” all elements of its nuclear program in a verifiable manner or face serious consequences. This is in stark contrast to the strategy of the previous Biden administration, who relaxed sanctions and turned a blind eye to Tehran’s rapid progress towards the development of nuclear warheads. But there will be no room for maneuver with President Trump. He will not allow the mullahs to prolong negotiations. Trump’s letter to Khamenei, delivered through diplomatic channels, was apparently direct and uncompromising. America now has the upper hand, and Trump has forced Khamenei into a corner. Tehran cannot be seen to capitulate to American demands, but on the other hand it cannot risk a combined Israeli/American military raid on its nuclear compounds. No wonder Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s Nowruz speech was so gloomy. The outlook for his tyrannical theocratic regime is dire.
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