Crunch nuclear talks on Iran are due to take place in Washington between the US and Israel. The talks have been called following an ultimatum, sent by President Donald Trump to the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in which he warned the theocratic regime that they could either strike a deal with the US over nuclear decommissioning and an end to missile production, or face military action.Trump has given the Iranians two months to reach an agreement or face “severe consequences”. During his first presidency in 2018, President Trump unilaterally withdrew America from the deal struck by Barack Obama, entitled the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), calling it “the worst deal in American history”. Since then, the mullahs have systematically accelerated their uranium enrichment program nearing almost weapons grade capability and causing mounting consternation in Tel Aviv and Washington. Relations between Tehran and Washington are now at boiling point.
On returning to the Oval Office, President Trump re-imposed his maximum pressure sanctions campaign against the Iranian regime, in an effort to dislodge it from international markets and sever its oil revenues. The Iranian economy is now in freefall, adding to the mullahs’ mounting woes, with the decapitation of their main proxy allies such as Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon and the collapse of their key collaborator Bashar al-Assad in Syria. President Trump tightened the screw on Khamenei by advising him that he would hold the regime personally responsible for any further attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea by the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. This followed recent large-scale American military strikes on Houthi positions in Yemen. Khamenei replied that he would not be bullied into negotiations and the Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said that Tehran will consider the “opportunities” as well as the threats in Trump’s letter.
The proposed US-Israel meeting in Washington will involve Israel’s Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi. They will meet with senior Trump advisers, against the background of declining Iranian influence in the Middle East and growing domestic opposition to the mullahs’ tyrannical autocracy. Resistance Units of the main democratic opposition movement - the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK), are burgeoning across Iran, actively engaged in acts of defiance, fire-bombing Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and paramilitary Basij compounds, defacing posters of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the regime’s fundamentalist founder Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, and hacking into state TV and radio broadcasts with anti-regime slogans. The theocratic regime is at its weakest point since it hijacked the 1979 revolution that overthrew the Shah, and the mullahs are deeply concerned that the slightest spark could ignite a nationwide uprising, driving them from power. In a lame bid to frighten the rebellious population into submission, the mullahs have launched a frenzy of executions, with over 1000 hanged during the past year, including hundreds of political prisoners and at least 31 women. The rising death toll has infuriated the population and emboldened the Resistance Units.
It seems highly unlikely that the regime will accept any deal with the Americans. Methodically weakened by US sanctions and Israeli attacks, the mullahs are determined to develop a nuclear weapon to re-assert their Middle East hegemony. They see that as their last chance to cling to power and fear that surrendering their nuclear program would be suicidal, leaving them vulnerable to foreign intervention, particularly from their sworn enemies America and Israel. Refusing a nuclear deal could trigger decisive military action against the mullahs’ regime. The US National Security Adviser Mike Waltz has warned that “all options are on the table” and President Trump has indicated that he would support Benjamin Netanyahu strategically in any coordinated military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Netanyahu has repeatedly stated that he will never allow the mullahs to develop a nuclear weapon.
Tehran’s options for any compromise are rapidly diminishing. Khamenei faces a tough choice, either agree to complete nuclear and missile decommissioning, or face imminent military action. He has two months to make up his mind. Trump has warned that he will not tolerate any delays or obfuscation, where the mullahs try to prolong negotiations until his term in the White House ends. But in his live annual speech to commemorate Nowruz – the Persian New Year – Khamenei said: “The Americans should know threats will get them nowhere when confronting Iran”, adding the Americans “and others should know that if they do anything malign to the Iranian nation, they will get a hard slap.” His provocative outburst will not have gone down well in the Oval Office, where Trump has indicated that he intends to visit Saudi Arabia within the next six weeks, to have talks with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS). The talks will inevitably include American intentions over dealing with Iran.
As the ailing 85-year-old Khamenei stumbles into the Persian New Year, he is facing perhaps his own inescapable end and that of his tyrannical regime. Western appeasers who hailed the sham election of President Masoud Pezeshkian as a ‘moderate’ reformist, will have been deeply shaken by his supervision of increased executions and escalating oppression of women. The storm of crises enveloping the Islamic Republic, both internally and externally, all point to one inevitable conclusion, that this year will witness a final reckoning for the mullahs. The collapse of their regime will pave the way for a democratic and independent republic based on the separation of Church and State. President Donald Trump should now move with speed to consult with Mrs Maryam Rajavi, charismatic leader of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), whose main component is the MEK, to achieve regime change and to relieve 95 million Iranians from their oppression and suffering.
Join the conversation as a VIP Member