"Regardless of what happens over the next 35 days, there will be new information, new things you have to make a decision over," JD Vance told NBC News aboard Air Force Two on October 1 of this year, regarding the midterm elections.
Now the midterms have come and gone, leaving the Republican Party in national shambles, and the conversation (and blame) has shifted to what happens in 2028 on both sides of the aisle. Certainly, who decides to throw their hat in the ring on the Democratic side will provide national media gossip and drama, with several candidates already being talked about. Cory Booker is visiting South Carolina. Mark Kelly alluded to a run this past weekend. There is much hype behind a DSA-adjacent candidate like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for an invigorated Bernie Sanders wing. There are already rumors of newly elected Michigan Sen. Abul El-Sayed eyeing a White House run.
The Democrats have the wind at their backs, and they know that whoever comes out of a vicious, brutal primary will have a decent chance at the White House. All of this complicates the 2028 race for the Republicans as well. Will the country have Trump fatigue? Will the Democrats have any level of success over the next two years? Will a Supreme Court swing be on the ballot?
These are all questions facing JD Vance, who would likely clear a GOP field with Trump’s endorsement. Vance has suggested he hasn’t made up his mind and that the lives of his young children come first. However, JD Vance’s much-debated post-election X autopsy doesn’t come off as someone who is sitting the next election out. His statement was about rallying the MAGA Right, placing blame for the midterms on the Iran War, despite exit poll data which showed government corruption and cost of living as the highest concerns. But Vance knows he has a job, and that job is to keep the fractions of the MAGA disenchanted in the fold, as that voting bloc may look elsewhere in 2028.
But the question remains for all of these jaded factions: What if JD Vance sees another coming wave, and decides he’s up against destiny and reality, and decides to simply sit out 2028, and come back rejuvenated in 2032? That decision then opens a field for candidates such as Marco Rubio, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, or Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee-Sanders, or even a Mike Pence and Chris Christie, as well as a challenge from the right in Marjorie Taylor Greene or Thomas Massie running on an “America First” MAGA betrayal campaign that could make some noise, backed by powerful media allies like Tucker Carlson or Megyn Kelly.
But it also raises greater questions about who fills the Trump endorsement lane. The question isn’t so much about who would run absent a Vance campaign, but rather who would fill the Vance-lane and void. Does Donald Trump Jr., a friend and confidant of Vance and the son of the president, entertain a campaign? Does Pete Hegseth enter the fray? A Vance exit likely creates a MAGA vacuum, as everyone jockeys for a post-Trump electorate, and what that looks like right now is anyone’s guess and likely signals a white flag coming from the Trump White House for a party where heir apparents are somewhat successful. The blame game engulfing the political Right and how Vance navigates the rubble of the midterms will answer several questions over the coming months, but as of now, there are no easy answers, and there is no easy path for him.
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