MIAMI — As Republicans in a handful of states around the country lament the outcome of Tuesday night's off-year elections, feeling the sting of another round of losses in Virginia, Kentucky, and Ohio that follows what many felt was a disappointing outcome in the 2022 midterms, five GOP presidential hopefuls are looking to explain on Wednesday night why they can turn things around and be the Republican to make conservatives once more "tired of winning" as former President Donald Trump — who is more than 40 points ahead of them — holds a rally a few miles away.
Former Governor Chris Christie, former Ambassador Nikki Haley, Governor Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, and U.S. Senator Tim Scott will take the stage Wednesday night in the third debate. It's promised by hosting outlet NBC News to put the focus on the domestic implications of events abroad — namely Russia's war on Ukraine and Iran-backed terrorists' war against Israel — and touch on the outcome of Tuesday's elections. According to NBC executives, the debate topics are designed to help Republican primary voters make up their minds. Of course, those will be topics NBC News thinks matter to Republican primary voters, and with Kristen Welker and Lester Holt leading the questioning, it remains to be seen how relevant their questions actually are.
In Hialeah, just a few miles up the road from the venue where these five candidates will tackle each other, however, the man many more likely primary voters have already said they're supporting will hold a dueling rally. Former President Donald Trump, according to the latest Real Clear Politics polling average, has a lead of more than 40 points over the Republicans debating in Miami.
Those trailing Trump and set to take the debate stage have been chasing momentum since their campaigns began, and the dwindling number of candidates qualifying for the RNC-sanctioned showdowns is a testament to the inability of some to have their messages catch fire among GOP primary voters. Some Trump challengers have seen a bump in their polling following previous debates, but any momentum from those forums has only set up, according to early state polls, a contest for second place behind Trump. Still, the debating candidates insist they're not trying out to be VP — not Trump's at least.
As the Iowa Republican caucuses draw closer, time is running out for candidates not named Trump to reach and convince GOP voters — of course, nothing is set in stone until primary participants' choices are officially recorded on caucus and primary nights — but so far those attempts haven't managed to meaningfully close the gap between Trump and the rest of the field.
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DeSantis, with the recent endorsement of Iowa GOP Governor Kim Reynolds, landed some fresh help in the Hawkeye State, but it remains to be seen how much of a bump that gives in Iowa as Reynolds and DeSantis put more focus on the first 2024 contest. Haley has received post-debate bumps in her poll numbers in a handful of early states, but there are only so many debates and there's still a lot of work to be done for her — or any other candidate — to close the gap and pose a serious challenge to Trump.
So what's going to happen on Wednesday night? If NBC News' preview of topics proves right (read: if moderators can keep the candidates on-topic) we can expect to see Haley and Ramaswamy square off on foreign policy. With the third debate being in Florida, it's safe to expect DeSantis to continue referring to his victories as governor of the Sunshine State to highlight how he's already proven his ability to win for conservatives at the state level. Senator Scott is likely to bring issues from the world stage home to reinforce his recent messaging on the need to reject anti-Semitism on U.S. campuses and in our cities, and on domestic issues look for him to highlight his work as a lawmaker to make conservative principles into policy to help Americans do better for their families amid Biden-inflicted economic crises. Chris Christie, hopefully, will have some more Jersey zingers from his side of the stage and probably engage in his usual taunting of Trump for not showing up to yet another debate.
Both Trump, at his rally, and the GOP challengers on the debate stage should make a case for why they can not only win the White House but also deliver wins for down-ballot Republicans in 2024 and the elections during their administration. Conservatives are, after Tuesday's result, once again tired of losing.
There's plenty of blame already being thrown around, but voters want a plan to turn things around, not more excuses. Those looking to lead the country should explain how they will restore America's national security amid an increasingly dangerous threat environment. They should make clear how they will turn the economy around and give Americans relief from "Bidenomics," not just throw it around as a buzzword. They're likely to be asked to define their position on abortion given Tuesday's ballot question result in Ohio, and they should be clear. They should outline their plans for foreign policy to end the chaos triggered by Biden's weakness on the world stage.
Whether anyone on the debate stage ends up able to best Trump in the 2024 primary should be more of a secondary question for them. What voters really want to know is whether Republicans can win decisively against Democrats. No matter who the nominee is, if they lose in the general then none of these debates really mattered or succeeded. Simply attacking Biden and his party for the chaos they've caused didn't work in the midterms, it didn't work in this week's off-year elections, and it doesn't look likely to work in 2024.
Recent election days have seemingly shown that asking voters, "Are you better off now than you were X years ago?" is not a convincing argument to have them vote to change the status quo. Instead, the candidates need to explain what they will do, why it will work, and how it will make Americans' lives better, more prosperous, and safer.
Of course, each candidate participating on Wednesday night will claim to be the winner of the debate, either outright or for some key hit they land on another candidate. But ultimately, Trump's rally down the road in Hialeah is where the frontrunner of this race will be Wednesday night. It's still, as of now, his nomination to lose according to the polls. Legal proceedings haven't tanked his numbers, and it remains to be seen what the outcome of those prosecutions means for his — and America's — ability to deal with this unprecedented situation.
Editor's Note: Townhall will be live-blogging the third GOP debate beginning at 8:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday.
