It seems like every day there’s another poll released that shows former President Donald Trump with a massive lead over his closest rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. As a DeSantis supporter, I take them with a very large grain of salt. Not only do absurd and unrealistic claims in the cross tabs of many of these polls defy belief, but only two out of 70 of the most recent polls actually have sampling that meets RNC requirements for a candidate to meet the debate threshold.
Because of this and because of the way Trump allies, surrogates, and supporters lean on them to convey a sense of inevitability & invincibility for the former president as the presumptive GOP nominee before the campaign really begins, I consider these polls to be one of the most devious psyops of modern political history. And it’s not even surprising, especially considering that both the Republican and Democratic establishments seem to WANT a Trump GOP primary victory.
That said, even someone as optimistic about DeSantis’ ultimate chances as myself will readily admit that Trump is still the front-runner and leads, albeit not as much, even in properly done polls without crazy sampling issues and weird claims in the cross tabs. Which begs the following questions: Will Trump’s polling lead narrow? When will that happen?
My answers are that I think it will, but probably not until the race begins in earnest and the majority of people start coming back from their summer vacations and wondering what’s been going on in politics since Republicans took back the House in January. I can hardly blame them. Politics has been exhausting the last several years, and it’s totally natural to unplug after an especially disappointing election cycle (except, you know, in Florida).
Right now, by and large, only political nerds like you and me (no offense, but if you’re reading a Townhall column, you’re a fellow political nerd) are really paying much attention. We know our Asa Hutchinson from our Vivek Ramaswamys and our Will Hurds from our Doug Burgums (ok, I had to look those last two up, but you get the idea). As for almost everyone else? They know Trump, and they know DeSantis, and they know Mike Pence and probably Nikki Haley, but mostly they know Trump. So it’s no wonder that the ex-president is the default answer to most of these polls.
However, going forward, two things could have a huge positive effect for DeSantis, but only if he takes advantage: 1.) a strong debate performance, and 2.) winning or coming close (i.e., performing above the polls) in early states like Iowa and New Hampshire.
The first GOP debate is coming up in August. Whether or not Trump has the guts to attend, DeSantis has already stated his plans to be there and participate in the process. But while showing up is important, performing well, even if Trump isn’t there, will be critical. If Trump attends, DeSantis needs to thank him for his service while making the case that he had his chance and it’s time to hand it off to the next generation. If Trump isn’t there, DeSantis must lay out why he’s the best option to carry forward the America-First policies Trump espouses without all of Trump’s unelectable baggage.
Performing well in early states will be the next key because paltry showings in Iowa and New Hampshire will mean a quick end to any campaign. On the other hand, if DeSantis can win one of those states or even finish a close second while outperforming the polls that show Trump with massive leads, it will do a lot to break the aura of invincibility that Trump has.
Doing both of these things and buttoning up their campaign and eliminating unforced errors along the way would show the nation that Trump's lead and the sense of inevitability/invincibility the polls convey at this point are more Wizard of Oz than reality. Just a little momentum here could translate into big gains fast as Trump's paper tiger campaign implodes. Remember, then-presidential candidate Barack Obama had barely reached his stride by the end of 2007. That summer, he was a distant second, behind the person everyone assumed would be the Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton.
Right now, these polls are but a tiny, active sliver of the overall electorate. Respondents are likely boomers willing to answer the phone and respond to questions. Have YOU been contacted by any of these polling companies? Has anyone you know? Beyond Trump's 25% rabid base, I strongly suspect that most other Republicans want a viable alternative with Trump-like policies that can win a general election. When the time comes actually to vote, if all goes as many of us hope it does, Ron DeSantis will be their only option.
No, this race isn't just not over. It's barely even begun.
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