The near endless failures of peace-making in the Middle East are due to our not thinking like the locals.
Imagine being in an intense negotiation with a Chinese firm. Let’s go way back to the days before Google Translate and imagine that the CCP jailed your translator overnight. The two sides sit at a table but cannot understand each other. They try to use pictures or sign language to get their points across, but to no avail. Nothing progresses because neither side understands the other.
Donald Trump has many firsts in his two presidencies. He moved the U.S. embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, something that his predecessors promised but never did. He has more recently cleaned up Washington fountains and parks. He said that his father told him that if the entrance to a restaurant is dirty, then the establishment itself is no better. America’s capital, especially during this 250th year of celebrations, should look like the seat of power of the greatest country in the world. Donald Trump has negotiated trade agreements favorable to U.S. coffers and companies. The man literally wrote the book on negotiations. With all of the above in mind and plenty of previous articles praising the president and his associates, I need to write the words below.
Many people have concluded that the modern expression of Islam is incompatible with Western life. The recent destruction in Paris at the hands of immigrants primarily from Islamic countries is only one of the endless cases of Islam in the West bringing death, mayhem, and threats to the end of the Western way of life. Western-trained people and Muslims often do not think the same way. Let’s use an example.
Imagine Coca-Cola and Pepsi negotiating a joint venture. Even if the discussions become tense and acrimonious, nobody would expect Pepsi to burn down a Coke bottling plant or for Coke to assassinate Pepsi’s CEO. There might be lawsuits or some industrial espionage to get a leg up on the negotiations. But that’s about it. Yet when Yassir Arafat did not get Israel to give him what he wanted, like the entry of several million "refugees" into Israel via a ginned-up “right of return,” he sent his terrorists off to blow up Israelis. John Kerry thought that he had negotiated a ceasefire in Gaza but “forgot” to tell Hamas. When two Israeli soldiers entered a tunnel, they were killed, and their bodies kept for a decade. Hezbollah has killed 14 Israeli soldiers in the most recent “ceasefire,” while Iran has used the break in fighting to open its missile tunnels for access to their ballistic cache.
Most previous wars were fought with local, short ceasefires to allow for the removal of wounded, the exchange of prisoners, or the exit of civilians. The long ceasefires in the Middle East are generally used by Muslim combatants to continue their attacks and improve their position for the resumption of formal hostilities. Donald Trump’s only obligation in the Middle East is to the safety and well-being of the American people. If he gets what he wants and leaves Iranian citizens, Gulf states, and Israel high and dry, he has every right to do the same. Of course, it would be nice if some future agreement or outcome was outwardly good for everybody, but Donald Trump is president of the United States, not World Field Marshal. When he recently told Israel to stand down from attacking Hezbollah’s neighborhoods in Beirut, Bibi Netanyahu had no choice but to comply. While the loonies on the Right like to peddle “Bibi owns Donald,” the reality is that the enormous support given to Israel by the United States means that when Trump talks, Bibi listens. Previously, Israel stopped an attack on Iran, ended the Gaza war, and now gave up attacking Beirut—specifically when Donald Trump told Israel to do all of the above. So, who’s the boss in this relationship?
The problem we have today is that President Trump is being magnanimous to people who are shameless. It is Muslims who say that they are allowed to lie or use whatever stratagem required in order to advance their cause or interest. Arafat had no interest in the contents of the Oslo Accords. He understood that he was to receive land, money, legitimacy, and weapons. He then planned how to use them to destroy Israel for good. He never reduced incitement in Palestinian textbooks or reigned in terror, as per the documents that he personally signed. Hezbollah and Hamas, Iran, and the Houthis only look at the break in bombs from Israel and the U.S. as an opportunity to rearm, move forces, prepare for more fighting, and better position themselves to harm the other side. It would be like Pepsi inviting the Coke guys into the building, only to blow up the same as soon as Pepsi got out.
One can definitely argue that the Iran War has continued after the cessation of bombing. The tight blockade of shipping in the Straits of Hormuz is causing Iran extreme economic pain as well as possible infrastructure damage. One can say that Washington has continued to hurt Iran, even if the B-52s and the like are no longer dropping their payloads over the mullahs. And that is a very good argument. The problem, I believe, is that, however important money is to the ayatollahs, their bigger concern is the destruction of Israel and the West. There may be some agreement signed—like in the case of Arafat and the Palestinians—which the Iranians have no intention of honoring. They’ll rely on American forces going home and Donald Trump eventually leaving office. Even if they give up “uranium dust,” they will use the plutonium from their working reactors or receive a bomb from their brothers in Pakistan to realize their cataclysmic goals. I am not pushing for regime change, but the U.S. must realize that as long as the current IRGC and Mullahs, Inc. are in power, an agreement will mean nothing, and their destructive goals will not change. One can claim to have enforcement mechanisms, but I still remember all of the “suddenly discovered” Iranian atomic facilities that nobody seemed to know about previously. Making a deal may sound good, but as someone once said to me:
“If you are honest, I don’t need a non-disclosure agreement (NDA). If you are a liar, an NDA won’t help me.”
Early in the conflict, Mosab Hassan Yousef (“the Green Prince”) spoke harshly about the son of the Shah trying to run a revolution from his living room. At the time, I felt that his critique was unfair. And while I agree with President Trump that the younger Shah seems like a nice man, he cannot expect a revolution made for him, with him simply arriving to accept his crown. The current regime has to go, and the economic and military damage might be enough to help tilt the balance of power inside Iran. But future leadership will come from those on the barricades, the ones who watched their friends and loved ones murdered by the Basij or jailed, never to come out alive. I like the prince, and he is a friend of the U.S. and Israel. But leadership demands risk. Donald Trump risked his freedom, life, and family, and the upshot is he became president again.
Donald Trump is a king of negotiations, but what happens when the other side plays by completely different rules set by religious fanaticism and total hatred of Jews, Israel, Christians, and the West? They may agree to something if they can get over their pride, but their word is not worth the paper on which they attach their signatures. The ceasefires have primarily benefited the bad guys, and that is very dangerous.