It's a common rule in many households: don't talk politics at the dinner table, especially in today’s political environment! That should not extend to a hard-nosed discussion rule about geopolitics. In fact, it might be the most important topic. Particularly when it comes to what American families are actually able to serve on that table today and in the near future.
To put it plainly, we are on a path toward a global food supply crisis. That is no exaggeration or ideological hyperbole. Conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, malign Chinese trade practices, and persistent drought conditions are placing stress on the global food system at levels not seen in decades.
That matters now more than ever. Affordability will be the defining issue in this year's midterm elections. At a time when real political realignments are very possible, America should not be voting based on a fear of hunger or household budget-busting food prices.
There are three main factors accounting for the supply challenges.
- Iran Conflict: The Persian Gulf accounts for roughly 30–35 percent of global urea exports and around 20–30 percent of ammonia exports. Up to 30 percent of internationally traded fertilizers normally transit the Strait of Hormuz.
- Russia/ Ukraine: Ukrainian strikes on Russian fertilizer infrastructure have reduced sulfur and ammonia availability. Russian ammonia exports are 80 percent below pre-war levels.
- China: It has restricted phosphate and nitrogen exports, removing potentially up to 40 million metric tons from the global market.
The three-part solution is a. Resolve the Iran War, b. Re-open the Strait of Hormuz, and c. Crack down on China’s nefarious trade practices.
That's why President Trump must act to deliver on his promises. Since day one, the Trump administration has lowered prices at the grocery store and the gas pump. President Trump’s Working Families Tax Cuts allow hard-working Americans to keep more money in their own pockets. At the same time, he cannot allow short-term financial pain to derail his critical national security agenda. While the president makes life more affordable at home and puts more money back in Americans’ pockets, reckless foreign adversaries are intent on devastating the global economy.
This presents an opportunity for President Trump to deliver a decisive win on both affordability and national security: world peace and affordability, through strength. By resolving geopolitical conflicts wreaking havoc on the global food supply, the president can cement a midterm accomplishment that will make life cheaper for Americans at the dinner table.
Here is why it matters, and how he can do it.
Oil remains one of the most critical commodities in the global economy, and it underpins every step of the food supply chain. America's adversaries, like Iran, are destabilizing global oil markets, leading to large reductions in global supply and a food affordability crisis. This isn't to be taken lightly. The actions of these adversaries are the greatest obstacle to President Trump's America First affordability agenda.
The situation is especially problematic for fertilizers. Global crises are creating a scarcity of fertilizer in the U.S. and other parts of the world. Fertilizer relies on two key global commodities: sulfur and ammonia. Sulfur is used to produce phosphate fertilizers, while ammonia is critical for nitrogen-based fertilizers and for phosphate processing. Where are some of the largest suppliers of global sulfur and ammonia? Directly in the middle of two conflict zones: Ukraine and the Middle East.
Russia supplies roughly 7.5 million metric tons of sulfur. Meanwhile, the ongoing Ukraine war and its impact on fertilizer infrastructure have left Russia's ammonia exports at 80 percent below pre-war levels.
In the Middle East, the Gulf region accounts for half of the world's traded sulfur and supplies one-third of the world's ammonia. In fact, around half of the global sulfur trade and one-fifth of ammonia move through the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict in the Middle East and shutting off access to the Strait have been suppressing access to this supply.
When crude oil becomes less affordable, sulfur supply tightens. Natural gas increases shortly thereafter and so does ammonia. Sulfur is a by-product of oil refining and so the supply of sulfur has been further disrupted by oil refinery shutdowns in the U.S. In China, Beijing has imposed export restrictions on nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers that keep significant volumes of fertilizer off the global market. This worsens global shortages.
President Trump and Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins are taking aggressive action. Secretary Rollins has moved at a rapid pace to unlock nearly $10 billion in economic aid to farmers. Billions more are on the way. This is an effective affordability agenda. Now, President Trump's geopolitical prowess can seal the deal.
Iran has continued to hold the world's food supply hostage. By forcing Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and replenish the flow of crucial commodities, President Trump can deliver a clear message that American leadership makes food more affordable for families across the country.
An American-brokered peace between Ukraine and Russia will have a similar effect, and it will stabilize global oil and fertilizer markets. The result will mean greater access to the sulfur and ammonia inputs needed for fertilizer.
Finally, President Trump will soon meet China's President Xi. This creates an opportunity to address China's nefarious trade practices that are exacerbating global commodity shortages and squeezing American families' food budgets.
If there is one lesson to be learned, it is that nothing happens in a vacuum. Developments in one region quickly affect others. What impacts commodity producers abroad ultimately impacts consumers at home. Geopolitics matter for what Americans eat at the dinner table. The sooner President Trump acts, the sooner he can deliver the food affordability wins that will define this midterm and his legacy.
Steve Bucci, who served America for three decades as an Army Special Forces officer and top Pentagon official, is a visiting research fellow at The Heritage Foundation.