What is the U.S. long plan?
Douglas MacArthur has been described as an American Caesar. He was given Japan to rehabilitate, and the success of modern Japan can be readily associated with the late general’s efforts. Instead of landing on the beaches, American troops arrived to police and direct Japan's post-war rebirth. They were given very strict instructions to interact respectfully with the defeated and mostly docile Japanese and to give proper salutes to officers. One soldier said that wherever he went, the locals would say to him, “Ohio.” He didn’t understand what they wanted from him: he was from Pennsylvania. Then it was explained to him that the word meant “Hello” in the local language. One can strongly argue that the rehabilitation and rebuilding of Japan and Germany were enormous successes, however demanding the paths were for their conversions from destroyed fascist countries into Western democracies.
It was said that the White House called Delcy Rodriguez, who is presently the interim leader of Venezuela, and offered her 15 minutes to decide if she wanted to play ball with the U.S. or be killed by the forces sent to capture the dictator, Maduro. She obviously chose life, and both President Trump and his Cabinet members have praised her administration for turning the country toward a more friendly direction. Oil and, more recently, gold have made their way to the U.S., and both Cuba and China are learning that their once reliable oil provider is no longer in their sphere of influence. As with Japan and Germany, the local leadership understood that there is a time to oppose the U.S. and a time to change one’s ways for a brighter future.
I don’t pretend to know what Donald Trump’s plans are for Iran going forward from today. I can say that Monday was the first 24-hour period in which we did not make our way to the bomb shelter or receive a screeching warning on our cellphones. That was in our part of Jerusalem. In other places, there were rocket attacks, and two Chinese construction workers (brought in to replace the Palestinians after October 7) were killed. On Tuesday, two more people were killed. To date, well over a thousand people have been treated in hospital, with over a dozen people killed, nine in one attack alone in the town of Beit Shemesh. Donald Trump’s forte is to keep everyone guessing, while Tucker Carlson is pouting that the president may have lulled Iran into thinking that any attack was not imminent. He compared the attack on Iran to disable its nuclear and ballistic missile programs to the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor. Well, the Japanese had every right to do what they did, however dastardly. And they got their comeuppance when they signed the unconditional surrender document on the deck of the USS Missouri. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth made it clear that the U.S. has no interest in a “fair fight.” Go back to World War II and look at Patton’s fake First Army Group (Operation Fortitude) meant to dupe the Germans into believing that the European landings would take place in the Pas-de-Calais.
When Donald Trump suggested on Monday that the war was going so well that it would end soon, the markets experienced whiplash. From a losing session based on oil price rises, the Dow and NASDAQ went into positive territory quickly as oil fell under $90 a barrel. The president noted that the Iranians no longer had a navy, air force, or communications. So are we still at the “four to five week” program or are we turning the USS Abraham Lincoln around next week and sending her home to a hero’s welcome? What is victory in Iran? What are the key metrics? Anything destroyed can be purchased from China or rebuilt. Without a complete change at the top, is there any leader whom the U.S. can trust not simply to go back to enriching uranium and making lots of ballistic missiles? And this is where the distinction between Venezuela and Iran must be made. The leaders of the former, however irreligious, still come from a Christian background. If they make a pact with the U.S., they will understand that they need to stick with it or face the Wrath of Don. Any Islamist running Iran will consider it his mitzvah to destroy the Little Satan and the Big Satan. He will do anything in his power to acquire nuclear weapons and deliver them to Washington and Tel Aviv. Breaking things in Iran is good, but one can win a war and lose the peace. How does the U.S. cement its victory with a non-threatening Iran?
One of the biggest surprises of the recent hostilities is the intensity with which Iran has fired upon neighbors, near and far. The UAE has had the most projectiles sent its way, and Turkey continues to rub its eyes over two ballistic missiles ostensibly sent toward the big American airbase at Incirlik. Last year, Iran focused all of its fire on Israel, and in the end, did a performative attack on Qatar to show those Americans a thing or two. Not this time around. The Iranians are ostensibly attacking allies of the U.S. and Israel. But they are not just shooting at bases. They have several times hit oil production installations in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. They have frequently sent drones into residential and business towers in the UAE and Kuwait. Drones are far more effective with near neighbors than against Israel. They fly slowly and can be shot down by ships, planes, helicopters, or land-based weapons like Iron Dome. The Iranians are said to have attacked their “friends” to push them to get Washington to end the war. The outcome has been the reverse, with the Gulf states attacking Iran or threatening to do so. Israel wants to say, “I told you so” in Arabic, but realizes that as the Talmud teaches, “Silence is wisdom.” How do you make an Iran that does not have thousands of Shahed drones and short-range missiles that can wreak havoc on Gulf countries and oil production?
Life in Israel is like calling an audible at the line of scrimmage. Our kids work at home, and there has been no school. So we have been on babysitting duty, which is a joy. The health club was closed for a week, and when it opened, only the weight room was available, as they don’t have time to get people out of the pool or showers in the few minutes from warning to projectile arrival. Tuesday, we had three telephone warnings, with two follow-up air raid sirens and dashes to the bomb shelter. As I wrote previously, I hope that my fellow Americans should never have to go through the routine of incoming missiles and the required preparations and limitations associated with always being ready to find a safe place to park oneself. We go to bed in a manner that allows us to be dressed and out the door within three minutes. As the Iranians are using illegal cluster warheads, more stuff can hit the ground. I didn’t hear the UN or the International Court at The Hague scream about the Iranian use of illegal weaponry.
Bill Clinton found out that Yasser Arafat was a liar and never planned to stick to the letter of the Oslo Accords. Donald Trump is much less trusting of the Iranians on the other side of the table. He truly meant to offer both Maduro and the mullahs a way out, but they thought that they could play him. Maduro is in an American jail, and the Iranian leadership is now a jigsaw puzzle. May God bring victory in both war and peace.