Not surprisingly, there is early criticism from some quarters of President Trump's base of supporters because of his decision to authorize massive regime-change military strikes on Iran. Such opposition is natural given Trump's commitment to peace and his vocal "America First" policy orientation, an important part of which was ending wars and prioritizing domestic initiatives.
What these critics need to better appreciate is that sometimes circumstances and opportunities arise that require a change of course. What differentiates us from most of our adversaries is precisely that we want our government to be pragmatic and flexible rather than ideologically rigid. Additionally, with Iran being unwilling to negotiate an agreement to cease missile and nuclear bomb production, President Trump deemed Iran to be a lethal threat to U.S. national security. So, when negotiations failed, he took action that he believed was completely consistent with putting America first.
For the last 43 years, the radical Shia Islamic regime in Iran has been at war with the United States, starting with the April 1983 U.S. Embassy bombing in Beirut, killing 63, and six months later, the U.S. Marines Beirut barracks bombing that killed 241 Marine service members. Total U.S. casualties from Iran-linked forces in this period have exceeded 1,200. But the loss of American lives inflicted by the radical Iranian regime is much higher. Iran's improvised explosive devices (IEDs) took many more American lives in Iraq and Afghanistan – totaling more than 4,200, which was about 46 percent of all U.S. war zone deaths between 2006 and 2019. In addition, estimates for the IED-wounded, often resulting in ugly facial disfiguration and loss of limbs, took an even higher toll, with one official source putting the number at more than 30,000 U.S. service members across both wars.
Additionally, Iran, under the Ayatollahs, has been the number one source of terrorism globally. These facts alone suggest that the take-down of the present theocratic government in Iran is overdue.
Defeating the Iranian regime is by no means a sure thing. First, while there was early success in eliminating Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, there is no single "second in command" as in a deputy or crown prince. Instead, power is distributed across several powerful overlapping institutions and figures, many of whom have been influenced or appointed by the Supreme Leader. Furthermore, these second-tier figures and bodies that now form the core "leadership layer," who will advise, oversee, and execute military defensive and offensive policy, are decentralized. This is not insurmountable, but the military campaign may take a little longer than most would like.
The Iranian military is made up of two parts. Prior to American and Israeli strikes, the IRGC, which reports directly to the Supreme Leader and his surrogate, had around 200,000 personnel, including the elite Qods Force. The regular military forces, called the Artesh, which had about 420,000 personnel focused on territorial defense, are less ideological and more likely to defect. Trump's promise of clemency if Iranian arms are laid down was primarily directed to members of the Artesh.
Under Article II of the Constitution, the primary responsibility of the president is the security of the American people. And the commander-in-chief has more comprehensive intelligence than anyone.
For instance, Trump's calculus in making this move includes understanding devastating risks to the U.S. posed by a nuclear EMP (electromagnetic pulse) attack, likely to originate in international waters from a sea-launched Iranian missile that detonates 50 to 250 miles in the atmosphere above the United States. Other intel that contributed to Trump's understanding includes cultural elements in Iran (that go unreported). For instance, the fact that Iran has the fastest-growing Christian population of any country in the world was undoubtedly a part of the calculus for making the decision to move on Iran. Trump has expressed deep concern about Christian persecution and separately about the slaughter of innocent Iranians. He has also expressed a vision for Iranian patriots and Christians to rise up and eliminate the last elements of the former corrupt, radical Shia regime.
The best way to assure a rapid exit and assure there will be no U.S. "boots on the ground" in Iran is a next phase in which the U.S. and our allies in the cause—which now include many Sunni Arab countries—will join with us in air-dropping appropriate arms for the Iranian Christians and freedom fighters to assure that the last remnants of the old regime are eliminated.
The most effective weapons for the Iranian people to bring a final end to the 47-year horror of Shia dictatorship should be geared for urban combat. Typically, these weapons include those designed for close-quarters engagement, maneuverability in confined spaces like buildings, allies, breaching doors, suppressing fire quietly when needed, and providing precision at short and medium ranges. Equally important are sniper rifles, for most of the urban Iranian freedom fighters live in high-rise buildings, providing them the commanding heights of rooftops from which weapons such as the M110 SASS Semi-Automatic Sniper System can be extremely effective with suppression options, night vision, and the ability to track targets in dynamic urban settings up to a half-mile range.
The sooner we equip and train the Iranian patriots, the sooner the U.S. military forces can withdraw, and the sooner that President Trump can focus on the America First agenda at home. To assure his legacy, Trump needs to deliver on three things: 1) the prosecutions of seditious conspirators, illegal immigrant sleeper cells, narco-terrorists and Somali immigrant fraudsters; 2) the restoration of U.S. election integrity with same day voting on paper ballots, mandatory voter ID, and proof of citizenship; and 3) the restoration of law and order and the ending of sanctuary cities in America.
Success in foreign policy in giving rebirth to a free Iran, combined with success in these three domestic policy areas, would assure the Trump presidency a preeminent place in history. All of which would be fitting for this year's 250th anniversary of America's founding in 1776.
Scott S. Powell is senior fellow at Discovery Institute and a member of the Committee on the Present Danger-China. His timeless book, "Rediscovering America," was a #1 Amazon New Release in the history genre for eight weeks. Reach him at scottp@discovery.org