The future might be AI; the present belongs to those who know how to use it.
The rate of technological change is nearly incomprehensible. Already years ago, I read that siblings separated by only a few years might use different apps as their main mode of exchanging information. If one looks at paintings from 1400, 1500, and 1600, the relative change in clothing materials and mechanical devices would be nothing like our revolution from the past 100 years. If we were to go back to 1926, we would not recognize the world. Cars were gaining in popularity, planes were mostly the interest of clubs and enthusiasts, phones were complicated to operate, electrification was only beginning, and getting from the US to Europe was the stuff of sea voyages.
AI, in all of its forms and applications, would appear to be poised to revolutionize the world. The speed with which AI is improving can be seen in the evolution from early attempts at video to present offerings that look almost as good as Hollywood movies. The fact that AI could potentially replace so many people—from programmers to actors, from surgeons (via modern robots) to executives—is causing concern on Wall Street and throughout many large industries. People imagine companies running entirely or nearly so on robotics and AI, with little human intervention. It reminds me of a Coca-Cola factory that could generate a million empty cans ready for filling with all of eight employees. If AI or a combination of robotics and AI can do the work of one or multiple employees, why wouldn’t a company move towards the future?
The challenge with AI today is that it is by no means perfect. There have been at least two cases, of which I am aware, in which an AI program wrote a legal brief with invented cases cited in the filed documents. There is no question that AI used for information search includes all of the biases and outlooks of those who programmed the material. So, if ChatGPT is a big believer in trans or climate change, your answers will reflect the same. There will be a need for human refereeing on information topics. Even code written by AI may require a human eye to ferret out any mistakes.
I think that the immediate future is Human + AI. One of our children uses AI to write parts of the code that he needs, but he is the one who puts together the entire package as required by his clients. Another made advertisements for clothing via AI in place of a model/photoshoot. The work looks extremely professional and costs her clients much less than what they would have had to pay for a human model. A third child uses AI to prepare reports and assignments related to his university studies. He has found Claude outstanding at creating detailed graphs and tables related to economic studies that he has to analyze. For all three, they have the final word on whatever AI has generated for their use. Anyone who can add AI to his or her work will have an advantage over those that eschew this new and powerful technology.
Will AI take over? Will humans be able to control AI going forward? Google sent out some worrying messages that its AI seems to be communicating with itself in a manner that the engineers cannot understand. Will we have to go through the movies in which the computer prevented humans from unplugging it? Are we heading towards Skynet and humans being in need of removal? I don’t know. Many new technologies look quite frightening at their opening; after a while, mankind figures out how best to make use of them. Nuclear power would fall into such a category. It started with massive and destructive explosions and moved to consumer electricity generation. The “too cheap to meter” promise was never realized, as safety and permitting requirements made nuclear reactors expensive, though their electricity is competitively-priced. Just this week, the US Air Force flew out components for a small, mobile reactor that could power remote military installations in place of diesel fuel. A frightful technology with proven destructive potential was tamed and made useful for mankind. The Germans are ruing their decision to close their nuclear power plants. They are on their way back to the Stone Age.
Can mankind control AI, or will it be the other way around? I don’t know how to bet on this one. In a more religiously active time, I would have guessed that humans would have controlled AI and made sure that it never got out of control or got the upper hand on humans. But the whole world, including the Chinese, are in on the AI game, and there will be irresponsible players whose goals—personal or national—will potentially be a risk to the rest of us through their specific development of AI tools. Dr. Fauci and the Chinese played with fire, with a mutated virus, and millions worldwide died or were made ill. The AI race is ostensibly between companies and countries, but the effects of any one system will be felt from one end of the Earth to the other.
AI’s potential in all areas of life is enormous. My wife wanted to see how a new bathroom would look before buying a single component. While still in the store, she fed into ChatGPT the various elements—ceramics, shower fixtures, room dimensions, etc.--and out came an exceptional view of how the room would look when built. Not that long ago, getting such an architectural-quality color image would have cost a fortune and could only have been generated by a practitioner of the building arts. And thus, AI is going to flatten a lot of industries. If any Joe can make a short movie at home with his own action stars and plot, what then happens to Hollywood? Sure, even the best of AI today is only a few minutes and does not have the quality of Tinseltown’s CGI, but look where it was a year ago, and you already have an idea where it will be in a year’s time.
What happens when AI takes over jobs done today by humans? Throughout history, new technologies have threatened the way things “have always been done”. In the end, societies generally benefit from advancement, and I don’t know of anyone today who mourns the end of horse and buggy before the car or steamships in light of jet travel. The transitions tend to be messy and somewhat inefficient, but many of those “replaced” might find a new role in the AI-modified office or work environment. Definitely for the foreseeable future, AI will need human supervision and inputs. Anyone who knows how to work with and make the best use of AI will be at an advantage over a similar worker who did not read “AI for Dummies”. Some of the biggest names in the field, including Elon Musk and Sam Altman, have different views as to the endgame of AI and its implications for mankind. Some see it as allowing a work-free life where all is provided; others envision AI taking control and potentially risking the continued existence of mankind. AI-based weapons are already in use. For the US and Israel, they are still under human control; I have heard that such is not necessarily the case for China, where the AI systems can attack as per their determination.
There is no point getting sentimental about how things were. Rather, we need to figure out how AI can make our lives better, and how we can use AI tools for better outcomes. What the future holds is a subject for God. For the time-being, we need to harness the latest tech revolution.