There are multiple issues with Iran. Not everybody is on the same page.
Steve Witkoff is in Israel, which is generally bad news for the local population. Don’t get me wrong. I’m sure that he’s a great guy, and if one went with him to a falafel stand, he could regale you with stories of Putin and others. The problem is that he is more of a representative of the Qatari government than the U.S. His positions are dangerous, and he has been more wrong than Jim Cramer has been on stocks.
The problem with Witkoff is that he believes the lies of the other side. Only recently, he chortled that there is a new no-Hamas government in Gaza! And that Hamas was on the verge of giving over its weapons! Neither statement is true, but this is the garbage that Qatar feeds him, and he swallows it whole and then regurgitates it for the president and the American people. A fake “technocratic” government was cobbled together, but everyone with more than seven functioning neurons knows that Hamas is still entrenched and calling the shots. As to the weapons, one of their out-of-state honchos claimed that nobody ever asked them to get rid of weapons. It’s like an old Three Stooges gag:
Moe: Larry, hand me the tools.
Larry: What tools?
Moe: The same ones we’ve been using for the last 10 years.
Larry: Oh, those tools!
Hamas without weapons is like a bird without wings. They don’t do window dressing. I don’t know if Israel has the manpower and/or the desire to get rid of Hamas’ weapons for them. As long as there is an armed Hamas in Gaza, nothing will ever change for the better. Witkoff and Jared Kushner want to build a beautiful Gaza. The locals will say thanks and then figure out how to build war tunnels under the new, gleaming towers. Witkoff, like most Westerners, cannot penetrate the mindset of Muslim Arabs. The latter would rather live in a rain-filled tent on a freezing beach than shake hands with a Jew. Their only interest is in destroying Israel; they have zero interest in building anything useful. They were happy when UNRWA did their work for them, and they’ll be pleased that Witkoff-Kushner will build them a new enclave as they figure out how to kill Jews from it.
If Witkoff were limited to the Gaza portfolio, maybe the world would be okay. But he has the Ukraine War and Iran files as well. May Heaven have mercy. Iran is not a simple business. There are multiple issues, not each being of interest to every party to the discussion:
- The well-being and safety of the Iranian people
- The end of the nuclear work performed by the government
- The end of ballistic missile development and production
- The end of support for terror throughout the world
Witkoff, being the Qatari emir’s friend and representative, does not want war. Not wanting war is not necessarily a bad thing. Wars are rarely clean, and as John Wayne once said, if you’re going to send somebody’s son into harm’s way, there better be a really good reason to do it. What are U.S. interests from the list above?
- While the U.S. does not like seeing the wholesale slaughter of the Iranian people, it cannot go to war to stop the bloodletting. It might help weaken the regime, but it cannot send in ground forces to end the Basij and IRGC murders.
- The U.S. primarily wants an end to all nuclear efforts. A nuclear bomb is a direct threat to the U.S., as it can either be smuggled into the country or fired from close range, say from Cuba.
- While Iranian missiles can reach Europe, they apparently don’t have the range to reach the U.S. The Iranians have made it clear that they are developing missiles with the required range, and thus ballistic missile development should be a primary issue.
- Worldwide terror is a scourge for Western countries, including the U.S. While Iranian-funded groups like Hamas and Hezbollah have killed Americans in the Middle East, other groups in Europe and the Americas threaten Western safety. Iran is the state sponsor of terror, and its parliament members said once again last week, “Death to America.” This is not an empty threat. Their goal—dream—is an end to America and the values she represents.
Should America go to war? That is a decision for President Donald Trump. If he played on a football team, he could be in any position other than punter. The president never punts; he decides and follows through on his decisions. The nuclear issue was big enough that the president sent in the B-2s. The U.S. will correctly demand that Iran stop all enrichment and work related to nuclear development. The mullahs will never agree, but Witkoff will breathlessly tell the world that the brutocracy has agreed to stop nuclear work. The Westerners never learned from Arafat that in Islam, it is okay to lie if it advances the faith’s goals. The mullahs won’t even agree to stop the nuclear work, but Witkoff—as in Gaza—will interpret their non-answer answer as meaning, “Yes!” Anything to stop war!
As to ballistic missiles, Israel rightly sees them as an existential threat. The U.S. sees them as a developing problem. The mullahs will again lie to Witkoff that they will focus only on production and not on long-range development. There was a report that Israel reserves the right to attack Iran alone if the U.S. decides that it’s out. For all of the THAAD and Arrow Missile wonders from the Twelve Day War, missiles did get through and caused a lot of damage and 28 deaths. While nuclear is a big red for both the U.S. and Israel, I would say that ballistic missiles are a red for Israel and a yellow for the U.S.
As to regime change and helping the Iranian people, both countries are on the side of the masses and may well be involved in covert efforts to help them. The U.S. will not topple the regime should she attack, but she can destroy regime elements with the hope that the people themselves will finish the job. Is this reason enough to fire Tomahawks and drop bombs? No. But with the nuclear and ballistic issues combined, getting rid of the mullahs would rise to one more reason to attack. The U.S. sending a massive force to the region can mean only one of two things: scare the Iranians to make a deal or prepare for an attack. The Iranians will not make a deal that is to the liking of the U.S. They will never hand over the 60 percent enriched uranium or agree to a ballistic missile ban. Again, they may lie to Witkoff, who, in any event, should be sitting on their side of the table. Remember Robert Malley, the guy in the Biden administration who was feeding Iran classified U.S. information? I must have missed his perp walk.
Attacking Iran is no minor undertaking. The Israelis have already warned Witkoff that the Iranians are using the talks and delay in order to move offensive weapons into positions better located to strike U.S. and Israeli interests. If the U.S. attacks, it will be the result of Donald Trump concluding that such an action is in the best of U.S. interests. He will not do it for Israel, and he will not do it for the protesters being shot in the street. And while both parties would benefit from a weakened Iran or regime change, any application of U.S. firepower will be for the express interests of the American people. Just as Venezuelans benefited from Maduro’s disappearing act, the U.S. acted for her own geopolitical interests.