There’s this thing in politics where people scramble to find something “good” to talk about for their side, no matter how bad reality happens to be. It’s like someone being blown up in a terrorist attack, but their pants were not stained or torn at all – whew! It’s a special kind of “missing the forest for the trees” you can only find in politics and dysfunctional relationships.
Under the banner of “Tennessee Election Result Is a Fire Alarm for Republicans,” the editors at Newsweek (yes, it still exists – in digital form, anyway, I can’t vouch for print) have declared the results of a special election in December of an off-year to be something Republicans need to set their hair on fire over.
Why? Because the Republican only won by 9 points in a district that Donald Trump carried by 22. Republican Matt “Van Epps held the deep-red seat, but his roughly nine-point win was a dramatic comedown from former Representative Mark Green’s 21-point margin. What was supposed to be a sleepy hold in ‘Trump country’ instead required a late rescue mission by Trump, House Speaker Mike Johnson, and millions in outside spending from both parties,” Newsweek’s editors wrote.
They declared, “Republicans can comfort themselves that a win is still a win—and that their House majority inches up to 220–213, at least until other vacancies kick in. But the price of that victory, in money and margin, is why Tennessee’s 7th is reverberating far beyond Nashville. In a district Republicans literally redrew to erase a Democratic seat, Tennessee just rang a very loud bell about how fragile their Trump-era coalition has become.”
First off, a win is a win – whether by one or one million.
Second, the special election was in December and there was only one issue on the ballot. In a district that is Republican by a significant majority, it would only be natural that low turnout would impact them the most.
There’s also the fact that, putting aside the “special election a month later than normal elections” aspect of it, non-presidential years always see a significant drop off in voter turnout. In 2020, the district had a voter turnout of 350,635, with the Republicans pulling 69.9 percent of the vote. Just two years later, the midterms saw turnout drop by almost half to 180,822. By 2024, the number popped back up to 322,656 – lower than the COVID election, but significantly higher than the midterms.
Presidential elections and other elections, up and down the ballot, drive turnout. Special elections do not.
Well, they do in one specific way: when the party on the outs literally pours everything they have into it.
Democrat Aftyn Behn spent more than they have before on the race, insisting it was a referendum on Trump. They didn’t set millions on fire to make a point about losing by less than usual; they did it because they thought they could win. Some polls were reportedly showing a 2-point race. They were wrong, wildly.
Behn was adopted by MSNBC – now called MS Now, but still an appendage of the Democratic National Committee – with appearances and discussions about her when she wasn’t there. She was also a regular on every left-wing podcast Democrats have scrambled to cook up in pursuit of “their own Joe Rogan.” None of it worked.
They excited Democrats – Behn received 81,044 votes (with 95 percent reporting), but the last Democrat to run got 122,764. That’s the difference a special election makes compared to a general.
For their millions, Democrats did increase their vote total from the last midterm – 68,973 to 81,044 – but that’s it. You can read all you want into that, or project all your progressive hopes and dreams, but math is math and reality is reality.
Socialism sells in major Democratic cities, but not really anywhere else. That’s the real lesson from the Tennessee special election, and what liberal outlets like Newsweek don’t want to address.
So, no, the sky is not falling. Are the midterms a lock for President Trump and Republicans? Of course not, it’s going to be tough and history suggests it won’t be good. But one special election, especially one where everything is completely misinterpreted, is not going to change reality one way or another. Republicans have a case to make, both for their agenda and against that of the Democrats. If they do that effectively, they can win. If they don’t, they won’t. That’s not unique, and it has nothing to do with last Tuesday’s results; it’s about the future. That’s what Republicans need to make the election about.
Derek Hunter is the host of the Derek Hunter Show on WMAL in Washington, DC, and has a free daily podcast (subscribe!) and author of the book, Outrage, INC., which exposes how liberals use fear and hatred to manipulate the masses, and host of the weekly “Week in F*cking Review” podcast where the news is spoken about the way it deserves to be. Follow him on Twitter at @DerekAHunter.