When I was at Harvard, I rarely took advantage of all of the world-class people who would come to campus and give lectures. Sure, I met Yo-Yo Ma at a dinner, as he had lived in the same residential house where I was at the time. The one exception to the rule was Harold Washington. The mayor of Chicago came to the Kennedy School, and I took the opportunity to hear him and meet him after his talk. I recalled when he first won a seat in the local city council. His victory came in spite of Mayor Daley's political machine. When the elder leader of Chicago was asked how a non-machine candidate could have won the race, Mayor Daley was not short of words: "He got more votes than the other guy."
The recent Republican electoral losses in Virginia, New Jersey and New York City, on the one hand, are not so surprising. In spite of the superhuman efforts of Scott Pressler, Jack Ciattarelli lost to Mikie Sherrill. I don't think that it is any great insight to say that Donald Trump has been a unique figure in American politics, and when he is not on the ballot, Republicans pay for his absence. While he may be called a Nazi or Hitler, Donald Trump is pretty centrist. He refused to be goaded into supporting a national abortion ban. His position on the border, trans athletes, tariffs and other issues resonates with large majorities of Americans, independent of political affiliation. His "fight, fight, fight" response to being shot and nearly killed made him an icon in American political history. And who else could work the fries at McDonald's or show up in a garbage truck and not come off as fake and corny? There is nobody like Donald Trump. And Republicans need to figure out how to successfully continue MAGA without its heart and soul and in the face of attacks from Conservative, Inc. and the Nazi curious "woke right."
Trump once said that he invented MAGA and thus reserved the right to define what its policies are. MAGA will outlive Donald Trump's presidency, but nobody will be the personal, living embodiment of the movement as the current president is. Remember him first showing up with the now ubiquitous MAGA hat or ending his numerous political rallies with a thunderous "Make America Great Again!" Nobody can replace his showmanship or his genuine concern for the Average Joe. And that's okay. What Republicans need to remember is that Americans have very short political memories and that external features like physical appearance and rhetoric count for a lot in getting elected.
This reality is the hope behind Gavin Newsom trying to create a version of himself that has never existed: Gavin the Moderate! In a normal world, a short reel of the destruction he wrought on San Francisco and the state of California would be enough to prevent him from running and certainly from being elected. But Americans don't look too hard at the details. "He has such great hair!" "He sounds normal!" Kamala Harris lost, in part, because she could not reach normal. She came across as a word salad engineer, and she could rarely put together a cogent sentence, even when interviewed by (paid) fawning reporters. Not everyone is as inept as Kamala Harris or as wooden and detached as was Joe Biden and other losers like Hillary Clinton and John Kerry. There is a possibility that the Democrats in 2028 will run a lunatic socialist; there is also a possibility that they will run someone pretending to be normal and laughing off the reality of his failed leadership whenever it is presented to him. Don't write off Gavin Newsom because California makes the third world look good.
The losses this week could be explained as blue states being blue. No biggie. Was expected. But it could also be a warning that candidate quality matters. While most Republicans are very happy with the Senate performance of John Fetterman (to the point that the Democrats want to primary him), when he ran, people saw him and his lefty wife as AOC material. Dr. Oz was supposed to defeat a candidate who had suffered a stroke and had serious problems communicating. At the time, he needed to see questions on a screen in order to respond. Oz's victory was considered a near gimme against a seriously incapacitated candidate. Fetterman won. And this is the reality of American politics. People put a big emphasis on the individual—in both directions—more so than on his or her supposed policies. The guy in Virginia who wanted Republicans dead—he won. An attractive candidate could purr that he wants to send all of the voters to a gulag and might still win.
I don't know who will vie for the Republican presidential slot in 2028. JD Vance appears to be the frontrunner. Will Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis or someone else try his or her hand? And while none will be like Donald Trump, whoever is ultimately the candidate needs to be appealing. Barack Obama won not on his skimpy record or his threats to fundamentally change America. He was handsome and knew how to speak. Mitt Romney had a 39-point plan for fixing the economy; Americans aren't into that kind of stuff. MAGA will need a post-Trump standard bearer who extols the values that a wide swath of Americans hold and not be beheld to the Groypers or Paul Ryans. The Democrats let the loonies become the party. Go be a Clinton Democrat and try to convince the DNC to fund your pro-closed border, controlled abortion campaign. The Republicans are still fighting their fringes and need to if they expect Jews and other minorities to stay MAGA. If the Groyper wing wins, then MAGA loses. One can always stay home if he feels that he has no candidate representing him or his interests.
There will be no point in trying to mimic Donald Trump, as it is impossible. He has a combination of talents, chutzpah and brains that cannot be matched by others. He is at home in large political gatherings, but he can also be genuine by the side of a Gold Star parent. He is not afraid to speak his mind or let the "fake news" have it over lies or distortions. The MAGA coalition—and it definitely is a coalition of groups that otherwise might have nothing to do with each other—will need a future leader who understands its constituents and their needs. Straying too far from the winning formula of closed borders, mass ejections of illegals, a strong economy, a robust military, and meritocracy will eventually lose key components of the team. It is critical that prosecutions of bad actors from the previous administrations continue, so that the people see how much the Democratic Party wants power by any means.
2026 and 2028 are not here yet. That said, the Republicans need to find their sweet spot. Nobody wants to go back to the wet noodle party of Romney and Bush. Nobody wants a party of Hitler groupies. There is a big, fat middle that wants what MAGA has to offer. The Republicans don't have to move away from Donald Trump's positions, even if they cannot replicate the man himself. Stay true to MAGA goals and avoid the edges. The Democrats are going full socialist. Republicans need to act like they want to win—and that may even include getting rid of the filibuster. Fight like you want it and there are tons of Americans who will vote MAGA. The victories are there for the taking if the right candidates can make the case.