A total lack of understanding of the Middle East resulted in the United States leading coalition forces into Iraq in 2003. Unlike the First Gulf War to remove Iraqi forces from Kuwait in 1991, Arab nations stayed clear of the second engagement. Although these countries did not like Saddam, they understood the importance he played in maintaining the balance of power in the Middle East.
When Operation Iraqi Freedom ended in 2011, Iraq had become an Iranian satellite, along with Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. Iranian-funded Hamas controlled Gaza. The Middle East meltdown, refugee surge into Europe, regional genocide, and explosion of jihad terrorism can be traced back to the upending of that balance of power. Bush’s blunders were compounded by the indecisiveness and appeasement of Iran by Presidents Obama and Biden. The quest for a nuclear weapons deal was naive. Tehran was playing for time and never planned to honor any agreement.
President Trump is correct in declaring the invasion of Iraq as “the biggest mistake ever.” Unlike his three predecessors, Trump understands the Middle East. He was correct during his first term in eliminating Iran’s chief of international terrorism, Qassim Sulemani. For twelve years, Obama and Biden failed in their attempts to stop Iran’s nuclear weapons development with negotiations and concessions. In one night, Trump succeeded not through words, but through a joint U.S. Air Force and Navy mission.
With Iran no longer the dominant power in Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza, the path to a peace agreement between Israel and Hamas opened. Supported by Qatar, Turkey, and Egypt, the Trump administration has worked with Israel to achieve that success.
This peace agreement is a necessary first step in rebuilding regional stability and a new balance of power. It will require close cooperation with the six countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates), which is already underway.
The second crucial element for success is America's alliance with Qatar.
Qatar hosts Al Udeid Air Base, home to CENTCOM's forward headquarters and from which combat operations against ISIS, al-Qaeda, and Iran have been planned and launched. This is why Tehran chose to strike Qatar with dozens of ballistic missiles following the U.S. destruction of Iran's nuclear facilities. Because Qatar is so close to the United States, Tehran viewed an attack on a U.S. ally as an attack on the U.S. Instead of being intimidated, Qatari and CENTCOM forces teamed together to destroy the incoming missiles.
As if to double down on its partnership with the United States, Qatar has now announced that it will build a facility at the U.S. air base in Mountain Home, Idaho, so that USAF pilots can train their Qatari counterparts how to fly the advanced fighter aircraft purchased from the United States. What this means in practice is that Qatar will be better able to defend itself, and America will not need to send its forces to the region.
The Qatari government has also been on the receiving end of a different set of attacks, these coming from select American media outlets and Trump’s own Make America Great Again (MAGA) base.
One of the slander attacks concerns Hamas’s political office located in Qatar. That presence came at the request of the U.S. government in 2006, when Hamas won the elections and took power in Gaza. The U.S. couldn't deal with Hamas directly, since it was a designated foreign terrorist organization, so we asked Qatar to be the intermediary.
Trusted as an honest broker, Qatar has delivered time and again for the U.S. and Israel. Prior to the attacks of October 7, they negotiated numerous cease-fires between Israel and Hamas. Moreover, at the express request of previous Israeli governments, Qatar paid for humanitarian assistance and civil service salaries in Gaza. The conveniently ignored truth is that Israel needed Qatar to help manage its Gaza problem. The Qataris obliged. Far from being the arsonist, Qatar worked with Israel to contain the flames.
Nothing in the Middle East is simple. European and American leaders making decisions, ranging from those straight-line borders created in the Sykes-Picot Agreement following World War I to Bush’s invasion of Iraq to Obama/Biden’s nuclear weapons deals, while ignoring the leadership of Arab nations, has always ended in disaster.
President Trump understands the calculus of power in the Middle East. Teaming with Arab leaders rather than dominating them and not appeasing Iranian fundamentalists will bring regional stability and lasting peace. He also understands the long-term and continuing importance of Qatar and the positive results that can be achieved in working with the Gulf Cooperation Council.
Trump inherited a Middle East mess, exacerbated by his three predecessors. While Trump is working to clean up that mess, he needs support, not undermining from the media and his own MAGA base.