In early July, 2025, Virginia’s Lieutenant Governor Winsome Sears was heading towards a searing loss in her bid for Governor. Her polling was uncharacteristically bad, especially as a member of a successful Republican ticket only four years ago, renewing Republican hopes in the Old Dominion.
The New York Post lamented that the Virginia Republican Party did not insist on a robust primary. There was a lot of coronations going on, for sure. However, the Lieutenant Governor was the favorite since she was a statewide officeholder alongside a popular Republican governor.
Winsome Sears also made some not-so-winsome mistakes. She leaned a little too heavily into the diversity element, ignoring the fact that the country is moving past the DEI, LGBT, CRT obsessions. Some of her commercials have not been engaging, stressing only her background. She also did not do herself any favors when she turned her back on Trump and supported Governor Ron DeSantis early in the 2024 primary.
I have spoken with active Trump voters in Loudon County. The Lieutenant Governor faces problems from the MAGA base. Even with the dust cleared, Election 2024 settled, and President Trump back in Washington, she didn't line up behind Trump 100%. Has she done herself any favors by trying to repair that damage? That is going to be one of the fundamental changes that she needs to make between now and November.
But connecting with Trump will have consequences. Lots of (Northern) Virginia voters work—or worked—in Washington, DC. Thankfully, Trump has been draining the Swamp, but how many government-employed Republicans are chafing from the layoffs? Abigail Spanberger, Winsome’s opponent, is making as much noise as possible about Sears putting Trump ahead of Virginia jobs.
But things are turning around, it seems. Can Winsome win this?
The first turning point came with the racist moment in 2025, with yet another Democratic operative touting the segregationist slogans. Her sign could not have been blunter and offensive: “Hey, Winsome, if trans can’t share your bathroom, then blacks can’t share my water fountain.” How could anyone be so thick and so insolent to post something like that? That sign has reverberated across the Commonwealth. The blowback has been intense, so much so that a black, Democrat billionaire has poured money into the Republican’s coffers! Such commonplace progressive racism should not paint the Commonwealth of Virginia as a racist institution, but expose the lingering bigotry of the Virginia Democratic Party.
Indeed, is it not telling that the Virginia Democratic Party has pushed one woke white liberal after another? There doesn't seem to be an interest in the diversity they claim to profess and protest for.
However, the Virginia Republican Party cannot expect to win by coasting on diversity dogma and racial talking points. What is needed now more than ever is attention and a commitment to the same agenda that propelled Governor Glenn Youngkin from double-digit loss to victory in 2021. Yes, former Democratic Terry McAuliffe declared war on parents, ignored their concerns about curricula and grooming in the public schools, but Youngkin provided a plan to restore parents’ rights and dignity. And he’s implemented that plan with great success.
Sears needs to talk about protecting girls in schools and sports, but she also needs to expand on parental rights to ensure the best education for their children. She needs to talk about the consequences of illegal immigration, and she needs to point out the rising crime that has overwhelmed Northern Virginia. Victory in the Commonwealth is not just in Richmond but in the DC Metro. If Sears cannot peel off 40% of the vote in Loudoun County or Fairfax County, she is not going to win.
She needs to find a way to make up any conflicts or differences between her and the Trump administration, but then she needs to pivot to those suburban moms in the Washington, DC area. At the same time, she must remain committed to gun rights, constitutional rule, and most importantly, the individual right to live your life, raise your family, prepare for your future, run a business, and feel safe at night walking in a local community without fear of government prosecution or criminal reprisal.
Can Winsome Sears pull off the win? It's possible. Some of the recent polling has shown her campaign numbers increasing, and she's starting to close in on her Democratic opponent. But if she thinks that identity politics alone will get her across the finish line, she is mistaken. Woke white liberals are racist, and they have no problem voting for a white person even if a (more qualified) black person is running, ready to break more barriers.
Winsome’s message election cannot rest on MAGA dogma, one way or another. She cannot run from Trump, but she cannot run on him. She needs to respond to the individual concerns of rural Virginia voters, but respect the challenges of the voter-rich sections of Northern Virginia.
Can she bridge those gaps? Can she build on Trump's successes, while downplaying some of his more controversial decisions? If she talks about illegal immigration, it must be in the context of public safety. She should focus on the fact that Northern Virginia has been overrun with foreign criminals, and then she should strees frequently how her opponent voted to defund the police or voted against serious immigration enforcement to keep those gangs out of our country. Spanberger wants to block ICE from removing criminal aliens from the Commonwealth, bringing death and destruction. Brandon Probst should be featured in every Sears commercial. How about the tragic case of Elias Camacho?
MAGA Republicans do not govern Virginia, and they don’t vote in large enough numbers to carry Sears. Virginia has become a blue state since Barack Obama, and it’s not changing quite yet. The Lieutenant Governor must prove that she's her own Republican, not a Trump clone with black skin.
Winsome with a compassionate, committed campaign that focuses on the Commonwealth and local needs might clinch the deal. It worked for Youngkin!