Last Sunday in Scotland President Donald J. Trump and the EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a trade deal that would include $750 billion in US energy exports, $600 billion in European investment in American industries, and massive EU weapons purchases for Ukraine and European defense.The ball is now in Europe’s court to deliver on its weapons pledges to defend Ukraine against Russia’s invasion. Trump declared that Washington will send "top-of-the-line” weapons to Kyivif purchased by European countries. He also warned Moscow that he would shorten the “peace ultimatum” to ten days before imposing severe economic sanctions if a peace agreement is not reached.
The clock is ticking. European countries are expected to send Kyiv their own Patriot air defense systems and other weapons, with replacements to be purchased from the U.S. The question now is how many countries will actually pay for these weapons systems,and will France continue to oppose weapons purchases from the U.S. and undermine trans-Atlantic interests?
French President Emmanuel Macron has been campaigning for several months against acquiring American weapons and has given extensive interviews claiming that he wants to convince European states that have “become accustomed to buying American” to purchase European missile systems and fighter jets instead. He aims to reducetheir reliance on the U.S. Indeed, after Trump’s announcement,NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, who has been coordinating with European capitals on the weapons sales, only named Germany, Finland, Canada, Norway, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and Denmark as willing buyers.
Macron’s approach reflects a longstanding pattern to marginalize the U.S. and establish French dominance in European affairs. The problem for Paris is that few NATO members trust the French government to follow through on its commitments, and many view Macron as intentionally distracting Europe from maintaining a strong connection with Washington. For instance, in March 2024, Macron floated the idea of sending NATO troops to Ukraine without any consultation with allies who quickly distanced themselves from his remarks. Macron has also broken with European solidarity aimed at ostracizing Putin by initiating talks with the Russian dictator at the beginning of July. The call helped Moscow claim that Western efforts to isolate Russia had failed and that Western unity was fading.
Macron has also boasted of providing significant military and financial assistance to Ukraine. However, analytical reports have indicated that of Europe's large military powers, France has the worst record in actually supplying arms and ammunition to Ukraine. Even as Europe as a whole catches up with the U.S. in military aid to Ukraine, France is trailing well behind Germany and the UK. Although France has one of Europe's largest military industrial complexes, it lags behind its peers in actual aid provided to Kyiv: in 2024 this stood at €635 million, while Germany reached €17.7 billion. Moreover, while smaller states such as Denmark and Estonia are allocating more than 2% of GDP to Ukraine, France is sending a mere 0.19%.
Macron’s policies are also undermining America’s and Israel’s Middle East policy. For several months, the French President has been pushing for multi-national recognition of a Palestinian state. He has lobbied UK Prime Minister Keir Starmerand Canadian Premier Mark Carney to join him in recognizing sucha state despite the fact that the terrorist organization Hamas is still holding hostages and controls Gaza. He is also working with Saudi Arabia and Qatar to co-sponsor a UN conference where such recognition is expected to be announced in September. Macron’s support for a Palestinian state puts him in direct opposition to Trump. The US President dismissed Macron’s plan for the United Nations General Assembly: "What he says doesn't matter. He's a very good guy. I like him, but that statement doesn't carry weight."
In effect, Macron is pushing an agenda that clashes with the U.S., empowers Qatar, the top sponsor of the Muslim Brotherhood, fails to encourage Saudi Arabia to recognize Israel, and aggrandizes Macron as a Middle East “peacemaker” when he should be focused on saving Ukraine from Russia’s predation and securing Europe’s defense. In France itself, Macron’s approval rating has slipped below 20%, the lowest presidential rating in the history of the Fifth Republic,largely because of his lax approach to illegal immigration that engenders domestic conflict.
Macron’s foreign policy is an attempt to escape his unpopularity. It is also a continuation of French policy in the eastern Mediterranean since the early 20thcentury, by trying to derail the leading Great Power (until World War Two it was Great Britain and now the U.S.), undermine Israel, and shift focus from what is really important for the West. This French policy also counters the achievements of the Abraham Accords, the main Trump project in the Middle East designed to forge diplomatic agreements between Israel and several Arab and Muslim states. Such an initiative has given hope that the region can be stabilized, terrorism thwarted, and economic cooperation boosted.