Israel just went through a unique period in her history. How did she do?
Tuesday night saw a Houthi missile activate the air raid sirens in Jerusalem, with people once again scurrying to their protective spaces. My guess is that Iran asked the Yemenis to fire the missile, as Israel still seems to be covertly blowing things up on the ground in Iran.
Below are data provided by the IDF on Operation Rising Lion through the first round of fighting:
Attacks:
1,500 Air Force sorties and 600 aerial refuelings
1,400 fighter jet strikes and 500 drone strikes
The furthest attack - in Mashhad at a distance of 2,400 km by a fighter jet
Eliminations:
11 senior nuclear scientists
More than 30 senior officials in Iran's security system
Hundreds of soldiers of the Iranian military forces
Nuclear:
3 nuclear sites were attacked: Isfahan, Natanz and Fordow.
Thousands of centrifuges (for uranium enrichment) were destroyed
Nuclear research and development centers were destroyed
Military infrastructure and weapons:
15 enemy aircraft were destroyed
80 surface-to-air launchers (air defense systems) were destroyed
200 missile launchers were destroyed (50% of all Iranian launchers were destroyed)
35 missile production plants were attacked
6 airports were attacked
Intercepts:
86% success in intercepting ballistic missiles (hundreds launched)
99% success in intercepting UAVs (thousands launched)
*Senior Moment
One needs to recall that the planes involved in the attacks are old. For example:
F-15 introduced in 1976
F-16 introduced in 1978
F-35 introduced in 2015
Tanker KC-135 introduced in 1957
For the Americans:
B-2 introduced in 1993
F-22 introduced in 2005
Israel added repurposed 767s as tankers in addition to C-130s. While the “I” version of F-15s (1998) and F-16s (2004) are newer, the planes are still based on old airframes. It is an incredible tribute to the designers and manufacturers of all of the planes above that they performed so well under difficult circumstances. Kudos must also be given to the ground crews that quickly and successfully turned around planes to get them fueled, loaded with bombs and back on their way. The B-2 waited over 30 years for this mission—the exact one for which it was invented. Drones obviously played a huge role in the attack, with their importance only growing in all major air forces.
While the U.S. is designing a new fighter and testing a new bomber, it is the old guard that is actively fighting today’s wars. The venerable B-52 is expected to be in use for 90 years before its planned retirement.
*Israeli Resilience
During the 12 day war, Israelis frequently had to make their way quickly either to a bomb shelter or reinforced room. The first few days had all schools and stores closed. After the number of missiles decreased, life was returned briefly to normal. Then when some big hits occurred on apartment buildings as well as public structures, the restrictions were returned until the ceasefire officially came into effect. Many of those whose homes were destroyed encouraged Israel to keep going. After 40 years of indirect war with Iran via its Islamic proxies, people just wanted to finish them off for good. Many were disappointed when Donald Trump enforced a ceasefire, especially with a strike package on its way for a massive hit on Iran. It’s classic Art of the Deal: you get most of what you want but not everything you want.
During the war, I went to two weddings. Both were moved up into the afternoon so as not to have two full wedding parties present at the hall at the same time in the event of a missile attack. Both were made in halls that double as bomb shelters. One planner had to reduce his invites by 80 people due to the smaller venue. From exhaustion, I actually closed my eyes and fell asleep at one of the weddings—something that has never happened before. Everyone around here was tired from the unusual hours and the demand to be ready to move on a moment’s notice. Israelis did everything to continue living, and 150,000 of them made every effort to get home from outside of the country when the airspace was completely closed. Many came and left via Jordan or Egypt, countries generally bypassed for travel due to their cold relations with Israel.
*The Ballistic Missile Threat
As shown above, 14% of the projectiles fired at Israel got through. Some did no damage, while others wiped out apartment buildings or damaged governmental structures. The West is not prepared for a missile war. If China, Russia or other enemies were to start lobbing rockets at the U.S., people would not have a clue what to do and there is almost no protection from such threats. Israel and the U.S. will look at space-based and other options for filling in the hole left by failed Arrow or THAAD interception attempts. While the number of killed and injured was relatively low, Israel will be building new high-rises for the next few years to replace what missiles removed in a matter of seconds. Donald Trump’s “Golden Dome” is an excellent concept, and it will need a lot of investment and development to make it a reality. Will America once again have bomb shelters everywhere? Will Americans have to plan what to do should an air raid siren go off? I certainly hope not, but America’s enemies realize that getting planes through solid anti-aircraft cover is much harder than flinging a bunch of missiles and hoping that some percentage of them hit their targets. Pakistan is apparently developing ICBMs that could reach America.
*Summary
Israel for the first time took on Iran for a sustained bombing campaign. After years of planning and with a very strong Mossad ground game, airplanes and drones destroyed government assets that included nuclear infrastructure and rocket-related targets. AI and electronic warfare played important roles in target selection and air defense suppression. I am curious to know how much of the Israeli air force’s efforts were focused on destroying rockets and launchers in real time, as opposed to blowing up IRGC camps or nuclear sites. Israelis soldiered on during the war and the gruesome views of rocket hits convinced all to make their way to protection when warnings were sent out night or day. Iran has been the head of the snake and has spent trillions on its anti-Israeli proxies, most of whom are on life-support since Hamas’s attack nearly two years ago. While Israelis go back to life, the Iranian government is frantically arresting supposed collaborators and trying to reestablish itself as the head of the anti-Israeli coalition. Israelis wish to live; Iran has nothing other than its hatred of Israel and the Jews. They relish death and Israel gave them plenty of it, from Rafah to Beirut and now over to Tehran.