Ballistic missiles versus manned and unmanned aircraft. Warfare 2025.
One of the challenges as a non-combatant in Israel is to think in very small time windows. When the Home Front initially sent out warnings, it was generally considered 30 minutes prior to any potential impact or danger. More recently, the window has been decreased to around 10 minutes. Someone noticed that the Iranians appear to shoot off their rockets on the hour or half hour as virtually every volley has arrived 12 or 42 minutes after the hour.
When going someplace or doing something, a person has to think about the possibility that out of the blue there will be a loud warning on the phone and he will have to move into a protected space. When we go to bed, we arrange clothes and other items so that we can be out of the house in under 5 minutes and over at the parking structure one minute later. One wonders when he takes a shower if he will be able to finish it in a relaxed manner or with a panicked dry and dress sequence. I don’t mind going over to the shelter at night in shorts; during the day I think it looks a little schlubby. So I actually did a rowing workout in regular clothes, only needing to add a shirt and grab my keys to get out of the house. When one finally puts his head on the pillow he doesn’t know if he has 10 minutes or 5 hours of sleep ahead of him.
Everybody knows about the famous Cuban cars. Cuba, being cut off from America for decades, has a moving museum of cars from the 1950s and 1960s. Iran had the equivalent in airplanes. From first generation 747s to F-4s, F-5s and F-14s, Iran has planes that have not been in the US Air Force or Navy inventories for decades. Israel has destroyed many of these items either on the ground or through some limited dogfighting that included somewhat more recent Russian fighters. There was much angst when Israel blew up a parked F-14, one of the last out in the wild. I hope that Tom Cruise was not too saddened by the loss of the plane.
As Iran had a very old inventory of planes, there was no way that it could take the fight to Israel with manned aircraft. Instead, it has been relying on its extensive selection of various models of missiles and unmanned drones. The latter have for the most part been neutralized before reaching Israel, with only a very small number actually requiring downing inside the country proper. The missiles have been a different story. They have fired salvos of 5 to 50 missiles. And while most have been successfully downed, some have gotten through and caused death, injury and significant damage. People who are a football field or so away from a warhead detonation may experience broken windows and earthquake-like shaking of their homes. The Iranian missiles are more accurate than their Yemenite counterparts, and there have apparently been some hits on potentially relevant targets. And no, there is no army base under Soroka Hospital to justify the attack there.
The use of missiles is not only the single option for Iran, it fits into its Islamic ethos. As I have written previously, the advantage the terrorists have over the good guys is that they are satisfied if they kill anybody. The good guys are duty-bound to kill bad guys, but the bad guys can kill four Arab Christian women or a non-Jewish family visiting for chemotherapy treatment (as they have in both cases) and be totally satisfied that they have shown those Zionists a thing or two. Missiles tend to be indiscriminate and the 24 people killed in rocket strikes were not soldiers or government officials.
Israel, always focusing on fighting a kosher war, is suited to controlled manned and unmanned aircraft that can be directed to targets with very high accuracy. One of the first images of the war showed a hole in the side of a building; on the other side of the hole was the bedroom of the former chief of staff of the Revolutionary Guards. The missile, whether fired by a plane or a Mossad agent on the ground, entered the bedroom and killed the target. Through Wednesday, over 1,100 targets had been attacked by dozens of sorties of F-15i’s, F-16i’s and F-35’s. JDAM, Spike and other highly accurate munitions are employed so as to destroy targets only. Over 600 refueling runs had been made. As the distance between Israel and Iran is around 1,000 miles, Israel’s planes are doing months worth of flying in the space of a week. Some of the attacking F-15's downed Syrian MiGs in the 1980s. Destruction of Iran’s air defenses by planes, drones and Mossad teams on the ground has given Israel unprecedented access to Iranian airspace. Targets are being hit day and night, and massive explosions and plumes of smoke suggest the destruction of important military centers.
The element of surprise was critical to Israel getting the upper hand quickly. The supposed wedding of Netanyahu’s son and the planned continued meetings between the U.S. and Iran three days after the first bombs fell helped put the Iranians asleep. Israel had unprecedented intelligence as to the location of key individuals and installations. People on the ground could assassinate generals and nuclear scientists, while drones produced in Iran by the Mossad could knock out anti-aircraft systems and their radars. It is reminiscent of the first day of Operation Desert Storm in which a group of Apache helicopters knocked out Saddam’s key radars, and one minute later the first strike aircraft entered Iraq for action.
Victory for Israel would ostensibly involve the end of any nuclear or ballistic missile threat. How long would such a success stand? Rebuilding nuclear facilities would take years; taking Chinese or North Korean missiles by the thousands could be accomplished in months, if there is no attack on the ports. Regime change was not on the original menu, but after the intentional hit on Soroka Hospital, that option was mentioned. It would appear that many inside and outside of Iran would like the Islamic dictatorship to fall apart. Should this be an Israeli goal? How much extra effort would be required to achieve it? I notice that much of what people put on X is wishful thinking. “The regime is losing control and people are taking to the streets.” It may be true, but this state of affairs may primarily exist in the head of whoever wrote it. Israel would love for the mullahs to be gone; it would be a true service to mankind. And ultimately, unless they do go, they will again field missiles and rebuild reactors. Will Israel have to repeat this process every few years? I hope not. I want to take a normal shower.