Donald Trump is having an extraordinary visit to the region.
Donald Trump is in the midst of his Gulf tour. He has been received with enormous respect by both the Saudis and Qataris. And while previous interactions between American presidents and Gulf leaders have been respectful, the relationship between the sitting president and the local leaders seems to be more at the level of a close friendship. From F-15 inbound escorts to lavish and heartfelt meetings and dinners, Donald Trump is being shown a love from the Gulf rulers not seen for previous American presidents.
As only Donald Trump can, he is using the opportunity of his visit to drum up trillions of dollars of investment and purchases from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE. The Saudis are interested in $142 billion in military purchases to modernize their armed forces. NVIDIA sold them 18,000 of their advanced AI chips. Qatar put in an order for 160 Boeing planes—the company's largest order ever. The more than $2 trillion that will come to the U.S. and the thousands of jobs created to produce the new goods will be a massive boon for the U.S. economy. But what I find interesting is Trump’s approach to his foreign interlocutors. For example:
*Saudi Arabia. He encouraged them to join the Abraham Accords and recognize Israel. He also said that they’ll do so when the time is right.
*Iran. The president made it very clear that if Iran will play ball and end its terror support and stop its nuclear ambitions, a brighter future awaits the mullahs and their people. If the country keeps its current path, destruction will follow.
*Syria. After removing sanctions on the country, Donald Trump told the new Syrian leader that there was a great future for the country if it would shake its ISIS nature, recognize Israel, join the Abraham Accords and end terror in the country. Obviously, if the new Syrian leadership does not do what the president asked, it will remain a pariah state in desperate need of foreign investment and support.
*Qatar and UAE. Other than the massive economic agreements, I do not know that the president asked either or will ask for any changes in their policies. There is the issue of the Qatari 747, but I have not heard the president demand that Hamas leaders be ejected from Doha or that Qatari funding of terror and anti-U.S. protests end. Maybe those issues were discussed quietly.
*Gaza. The president put the blame for Gaza squarely on Hamas and said that the people there deserve a better future. He praised Israel and in no way criticized its handling of the present war in Gaza or against Hezbollah, the Houthis, etc.
In President Trump’s first term, he famously gave his North Korean counterpart an iPad with views of what a potential North Korea could look like with foreign investment and development. Obviously, nothing came of the offer, as the country is little changed in its poverty and belligerence towards the U.S. But the pattern we see today may have had its start with that brief meeting at the 38th Parallel.
Donald Trump is different from his predecessors in not coming to the region with Western demands. He also lacks the hubris to say that we know better and will tell the locals how to change. He stated in Saudi Arabia that the locals know best and all that they have built in their kingdoms in the sand is through their investment and effort. On our brief visit to Dubai last year, we went to the top of The Frame. On one side one can see “old Dubai” which looks a lot like Tel Aviv from 50 years ago. From the other side is the gleaming new city that can hold its own with any Western competitor. Donald Trump firstly showed respect and praised his hosts to high heaven. Next, he told them that he did not come to lecture them on “democracy.”
Trump’s approach is unique. For ostensible enemies of the U.S. like Iran, Gaza and Syria, he first dangled an enormous carrot: if you choose the right path, you will have a wealthy and successful future which I (Trump) want you to enjoy. We the U.S. will be partners and help you to grow and succeed. On the other hand, if you can’t break your terror habits, then you will experience things that nobody has ever seen before. Harry Truman got the North Koreans to the negotiating table by saying that he would use weapons never employed before in warfare: the hydrogen bomb. Donald Trump, after giving the positive scenarios, warned that if countries continue with terror or nuclear ambitions, they will open the gates of hell. Those gates look surprisingly similar to the bomb bay doors of a B-2 bomber.
If I had to go to Vegas with a sack of dough and place my bets, I would wager as follows: Saudi Arabia and the U.S. will strengthen their ties. And while I am no fan of Qatar and see it as a terror-supporting state, I expect the same with them. I don’t believe that the Saudis feel any great need to join the Abraham Accords and will not rush to recognize Israel, though there may be secret interactions between the countries. As for Syria and Iran, breaking old habits is hard to do. The Iranians have for nearly half a century supported anti-Israeli and anti-Western terror. Only last week a planned attack against Israeli interests in the UK by Iranian nationals was foiled. And with nuclear weapons, they see the bomb as both an insurance policy and the one way that they can get Israel off of the map. While Yahya Sinwar said that he would be OK with 100,000 dead Palestinians for a successful October 7, 2023, attack, the Iranians would not cry over half a million dead Palestinians as the price for destroying Israel with an atomic bomb.
As for Syria, al-Julani is a wild card. He quickly changed his garb and appearance. Does he have that rare trait to move from terrorist to statesman? Does he have the power and ability to get his country under control? More fundamentally, is he interested in peace and a successful country? Once ISIS, always ISIS? If he actually moves to pacify his country and make peace with Israel, he should receive the next 10 Nobel Peace Prizes.
In the meantime, Donald Trump should get one for himself. He is doing his all to strengthen the U.S. and also make for a safer and more peaceful world. The lefties on the Nobel Committee would rather give the prize to a vacuum cleaner than the orange-haired president. That does not seem to bother the leaders of Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Their smiles could not have been any broader.