If you have a flight leaving from Sana’a, you might want to hold onto your boarding pass.
In 1987, when the first intifada began, it commenced on both sides of Rafah. This was the so-called “rock throwing” intifada, as most of the violence was expressed with rocks, with some knives thrown in. The suicide bombers and exploding buses did not come until the second intifada that began in 2000. When Palestinians began to throw rocks, Israel did not know how to respond. The Egyptians did. They shot and killed every stone thrower. The intifada ended in Egypt on its first day. In Israel, it continued for a few years. Israel was so lost as to how to deal with the violence that at one point it invented a machine to throw perfectly rounded stones back at the Palestinians. An American commentator at the time said that it would not work as it did not know how to curse in Arabic.
In a similar manner, when Hezbollah began its kidnapping and murder of foreign officials in the 1980s, it decided to snatch a couple of Russians, whom they killed. The Russians grabbed a few Hezbollah guys in Beirut, made some anatomical modifications and then threw their bodies onto the doorstep of Hezbollah’s main office. That is how you speak Middle East. From that point forward, Hezbollah focused on snatching and killing Americans and British officials—including the Beirut CIA station chief.
Israel has whacked the Houthis for two days running. From the rhetoric of Binyamin (Bibi) Netanyahu, there is more to come. Israel has hit the Houthis' major port as well as the international airport at Sana’a, of blessed memory. It would appear that Israel has destroyed major Houthi resources. Each attack apparently included a few dozen F-15s and around 50 bombs. People have correctly noted that Yemen is further from Israel than Iran. While Iran has air defenses, the Houthis do not. Maybe Israel will spray defoliant on the khat fields and that will definitely be the end of the Yemenite threat. Unlike the Egyptians and Russians, Israel has responded way too late.
Donald Trump announced that the Houthis have agreed to stop attacking shipping in the Red Sea. The Houthis, in typical fashion, denied the claim and said that they will continue with their assaults. Trump stated clearly that the US attacks on Yemen were for the specific purpose of opening the shipping lanes that the world relies on. If he has achieved this goal, then he should welcome the sailors of the Truman, Vinson and their battle groups with a parade in Washington. The theoretical outcome is that the Houthis will not attack American shipping but reserve the “right” to continue flinging missiles at Israel. I imagine that Israel will stick an American flag (with permission) on all shipping going to or coming from Eilat. I am afraid that a world of disappointment is in order. Like Yasir Arafat, the Houthis are not a people of their word. They’ll wait until the carriers are back home and then they’ll fire on a couple of tankers claimed to be owned by some Israeli. Who is President Trump to tell them what they can do! Unfortunately for the drugged out Yemenites, President Trump is not President Biden. He will be a lot less patient if they cross him. We will soon learn that America’s aging nuclear warheads still work and that khat can glow in the dark.
As to Israel, it has failed at deterrence with all of its enemies. The new Defense Minister, who actually means business, bombed Beirut after a rocket attack on the Galilee. He made a very succinct comment: “Beirut’s peace will be the same as that of Israel’s north.” Ah, he’s changed the equation. Instead of absorbing a few thousand rockets and shrugging it off, Israel is giving it right back. The two major attacks against Yemen this week should have happened when the first sirens sounded over a year ago. Like the Egyptians and Russians, Israel needs to learn to nip problems in the bud. When you don’t respond, Arabs see it not as strategic thinking or restraint: they see it as weakness and escalate their attacks until breaking point.
Hamas is finding out that there is a new leadership in the IDF. They are getting hammered in ways that the previous chief of staff and his people did not do. I used to say that the Arabs always fight the last war and are oblivious to improvements in Israeli gear and tactics; now they are fighting the last chief of staff and don’t realize that the half-Yemenite new IDF boss fights like he’s a Houthi. Ten thousand reservists have been called up with the express goal of destroying Hamas and moving the entire Gaza population to a humanitarian area under IDF control in the south. Gazans want to leave; Israel wants them to leave. If enough landing points can be found for them, Gazans will go elsewhere and Gaza will be pacified for good. Then Donald Trump can build his wonder resort as promised.
One should never show his enemy weakness. The willy-nilly retreat from Afghanistan not only emboldened the Taliban against the U.S., it showed Russia and other U.S. enemies that the superpower does not have a functioning military. Most accept that Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine only after he saw the disastrous egress of American forces from Kabul. Showing weakness to an enemy is effectively asking to be attacked. I don’t know what is going on with Iran as President Trump claims that he wants a complete end to enrichment while his guy, Steve Witkoff, is holding negotiations that include levels of enrichment, etc. Israel needs to finish the Iranian problem for good. The goal must be no threat from Iran and no further means to support or finance anti-Israel terror groups around the world. The time has come to finish the war both in Gaza and in Tehran. Israel needs an unequivocal victory in both battles.
Israel has a weakness that it is always worried about what the international community will say. The attacks made this week required a near-miss at the airport in order for Israel to muster the courage to send F-15s and supporting tankers on their way. The current destruction in Gaza should have happened a long time ago, during those many two-month incursions that always ended too soon. It took the mass rape, torture, and slaughter of soldiers and citizens to get Israel to do what it should have done when the first rocket was fired after the asinine withdrawal from Gaza. But Israel waited and suffered a horrible attack. The Gazans have finally entered the “find out” phase of what happens when you attack Jews.