It's a truism that it is extremely difficult to govern with a tiny majority in the House of Representatives. When there are no vacancies, there are 435 members; if everybody shows up, it takes a bare majority, 218 votes, to pass a bill. In practical terms, a majority party needs well over 218 seats to ensure it can win party-line votes. There will always be members who don't show up or take the other side, and the majority needs enough to win the vote even while losing a few on its own side.
Looking at the House in the last 20 years, the majority party had 233 seats in the Congress beginning in 2005; 233 in the next Congress; 257 beginning in 2009; 242 in the Congress after that; then 234 in the next; 247 in the next; 241 in the next; and 235 in the House beginning in 2019.
A 235-seat majority is pretty much the minimum for a party to govern comfortably. But after 2019, in the hand-to-hand combat of the Trump years, things began to get very, very close. In the House that began in 2021, Democrats had 222 votes. In 2023, Republicans had 222 votes. And now, in the House that has taken office in 2025, it's gotten even tighter. A lot tighter, if that is possible.
The party balance in the House is 218 Republicans to 215 Democrats, with two vacancies. Those two are Rep. Mike Waltz, who left to become President Donald Trump's national security adviser, and Rep. Matt Gaetz, who left ahead of an ethics investigation. Both are Republicans from Florida, where an election to replace them has been set for April 1. Both seats are expected to be held by the GOP.
But one more Republican member is about to leave, and that is Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York, who is set to become the U.N. ambassador. When Stefanik resigns from the House, which will be pretty soon, the party balance will be 217 Republicans to 215 Democrats, with three vacancies.
That means that if a critical party-line vote comes up and everyone shows up to vote, Republicans cannot afford to lose even a single vote and still prevail. (If there's a 216-216 tie, the bill loses.)
Given that situation, it now appears that Democrats in New York, including Gov. Kathy Hochul, have decided to see if they can delay the election to replace Stefanik for as long as possible. Yes, the GOP will welcome two much-needed new members after the Florida election, but the margin will still be tight, and keeping Stefanik's seat empty will make things harder for Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson, the GOP and Trump.
"Albany lawmakers are plotting to keep a critical House seat vacant until June or even later in an effort to thwart President Trump's legislative agenda," the New York Post reported. "[They] met Friday to discuss changes to the state's election law that would allow the governor to delay special elections and push off any pending ones until the June primaries -- or even the general election in November."
For Johnson and the House GOP, that's a big problem. It's also a problem for the 750,000 people living in New York's 21st Congressional District, who will not have a representative in the House starting the day Stefanik moves to the United Nations. In a statement, Johnson called the Democratic scheme "an open display of political corruption."
"Gov. Hochul and other top Democrats are willing accomplices in this delay scheme because they know the seat will be filled by another Republican," Johnson said. "We will continue to hold these politicians accountable and challenge their corrupt plan."
On the one hand, the maneuvering in New York is standard-issue politics. If Republicans wanted a bigger majority, they should have won more seats. On the other, given the historically narrow margin in the House, the numbers could affect the entire course of the Trump administration. Yes, the president is moving fast by acting on his executive authority. But at some point, the White House will need to pass some important bills. It's going to be a very difficult task.
This content originally appeared in the Washington Examiner at washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/3309488/alarmingly-narrow-house-majority/.
(Byron York is chief political correspondent for The Washington Examiner. Email him at byork@washingtonexaminer.com. For a deeper dive into many of the topics Byron covers, listen to his podcast, The Byron York Show, available on the Ricochet Audio Network at ricochet.com/series/byron-york-show and everywhere else podcasts are found.)